Turfway Park Saturday January 18, 2020
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves Jason Voorhees, Jason and the Argonauts, Jason Isbell, and Jason Beem. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
There is Pick Five carryover of $36,638 compliments of last night’s card. If you can figure out the fourth race, you should get paid for your efforts.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Allowance 5000s 6 1/2 F 4YO&Up F&M
6-4-5-2
The 5/2 ML favorite #4 Patsy J could be really tough to beat coming off her 12/28/19 Turfway Park romp going a half panel shorter. She pressed the leader, went a little wide, and easily drew away by over six lengths in a race that was likely her career best. If she backs it up or improves at all, she is the most likely winner. It’s interesting that leading jockey Albin Jimenez isn’t back aboard her, but he doesn’t have another mount in this race either. #5 Chargaree has won five of her last six races for trainer Kim Hammond and she keeps jockey Alex Achard in the bike for the third straight race. She won at this level here at Turfway on New Year’s Day in front-running style. The race will likely be won or lost on the front end with a speed duel between these two runners. We aren’t going to get much of a price increase with this one, if any, over the ML favorite.Should the pace break down, and it certainly could because #1 Diva Banker is going to have to fire from the rail if she is to have any shot, we might be able to catch a little lightning in the bottle with a well-positioned #6 Ameribelle. She has regular jockey Abel Lezcano back aboard and owner/trainer Rey Hernandez places his runners in the correct spots at Turfway. She is likely the most versatile mare in the field, has won twice in Florence Y’all (including her last race on 12/13/19), and is shortening up in her second race back from a two-month respite. Ameribelle has been facing better in her career until her last start and she could start working her way back up the ladder.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n2L 5 1/2 F 4YO&Up
7-4-8-1
It’s a little difficult to endorse the 3/1 ML favorite #8 Toothpic as he is 1/16 lifetime, albeit against tougher fields. His last race on 1/2/20 was one step up the ladder and he lost to a pretty decent Portobello’s Hero. Dropping him down the ranks is just what he needs, but I have to wonder about his competitive spirit as he hasn’t been anywhere close at the wire in his past eight races. I’ll pass. #7 Greenspan is dropping even further than Toothpic after dueling on the front end against $15K claimers on 12/21/19. He is shortening up in distance in his second start for the Robert Whitson barn and he doesn’t appear to hate the Turfway synthetic. He keeps jockey Rogelio Miranda for the second consecutive race and his 1/9/20 workout shows he belongs with this group. In a race full of one-time winners (and even the maiden 5YO #6 Second Encore) we really should look for a horse with a little upside. Greenspan has that over Toothpic even though their prices are likely to be similar. A couple others figure in this evenly matched race, but if you’re looking for a price, #4 Rahfee Town is the one. We shouldn’t get the 10/1 ML, but this Kelly Ackerman trained horse has been working his way down the ladder since his graduation at Belterra on 9/9/19 and he caught a field of weaker horses and two favorites with a lot of questions.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 15000n2L 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
8-entry-4-7
The John Hancock trained entry was made the ML 3/1 favorite based on the laurels of #1A Elle Factor. Two second place checks against better since breaking her maiden at the Pea Patch on 8/16/19 has her right in the cross hairs of her second win. I like that she seems to be improving after a rather dull beginning to her career and a little War Front in the pedigree never really hurt any horse at Turfway. She hasn’t tried the synthetics yet, but if she is the one of the entry to run, she has the recent ability to sweep them off their hooves. Jockey Albin Jimenez must really like recent MC $5K winner #4 The Ash Factor to ride her back as she takes a huge leap in competition. I don’t care for MC winners against other winners for the first time, especially when they won at the lowest level. That said, she overcame a rough trip and the second-place horse in her graduation has already returned to the track to win next time out. #8 Vegan Goes Best is also facing winners for the first time, but she annihilated a MC $15K field here at Turfway on 12/5/19 winning by a pole on the engine. She has previously shown a propensity for the lead and she has the early foot to force the others in this field to play “catch me if you can.”
Race Four: 7:42 post – MC 7500 6 1/2 F 3YO
12-10-1-13
A full field of twelve plus one AE have entered this MC $7500 affair for three-year-old colts and geldings. Most of these horses have run three or fewer races, but, honestly, none of them have really run much at all. I suppose #12 Tadeo makes the most sense as he has been facing far tougher than all these horses in his first four career races at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. Brad Cox and Kiaran McLaughlin both had a shot with him before moving to the Bill Morey barn three back. Morey is no dummy and he picks up jockey Gerardo Corrales after getting the ultimate equipment change. I’ll likely single him on my press and skinny tickets. If you don’t take a stand with him, you can go any direction you would like, and I couldn’t fault you. Albin Jimenez is listed as the jockey for #1 This Is Me and the AE #13 Cat’s Curiosity.In a field like this, the AE is almost certain to draw in, so his choice should speak volumes about which to use. I prefer This Is Me based on the addition of Lasix and blinkers, but trainer Ronald Kahles has laid a goose egg in his first 25 Turfway starts this meet. Let the buyer beware. The Cat is entered for the first time in a claiming race after running up the track in his first six MSW starts. Though I like the class drop, he has been running primarily at the Mountain, and if you can’t graduate there, where can you graduate? I could see using #3 Raising Dreams based on the class drop, #4 Code Blu based on the addition of the bug boy, #6 Man He Can based on the improved efforts at Turfway Park, #8 Commissario for the same reasons as the #6, and #10 Mrwilloughby had a stellar 3F workout on 1/11/20.If we can find the winner in this leg, we should get paid.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 5000n2L 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
13-3-entry-8
Fourteen horses with an entry and an AE don’t exactly make the payout leg of this Pick Five easy. If the AE #13 Social Circle draws in the race, I am using this Genaro Garcia filly as a likely single to most of my tickets as this 4YO is dropping in class after her maiden voyage over this strip. She’s getting the best apprentice on the property in Joseph Ramos (well, I like Crystal Conning a lot too, but I can’t get her any mounts), her last three starts have been riddled with problems, and her 1/4/20 work out is plenty respectable compared to the quality of this field. Garcia wins at 22% with horses in their second start in his barn and any effort close to her Churchill Downs’ running lines is plenty good enough to win. #3 Skip and a Hop ran well enough to win this race against this level in her first Turfway start on 12/13/19, but her last effort was dull, and I wonder if she is lacking the killer instinct. Her Churchill Downs efforts earlier this year are good enough to win in this more realistic spot. The Doug Danner owned/trained entry of #1 Promised Fame and #1A Green Garnet are dangerous at this level and a must-use on larger tickets. Promised Fame is making her third consecutive start at a mile over the Turfway poly-track and she looks to be improving while Green Garnet hasn’t really liked the going here in Florence Y’all. I am also using #8 Hope and a Dream as the lone speed on the stretch out with Joseph Ramos in the irons. She hasn’t routed yet, but she is making her fifth Turfway appearance in what will be her eighth career race. She might not be good enough and she might not have the stamina for a route, but I respect a quality apprentice winging it on the front end as the lone speed and perhaps rationing out just enough pace and luck to take them all wire to wire. I will be checking to see who he choses to ride should the AE Social Circle draw in.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 5000n2x 1 Mile 4YO&Up
9-5-10-11
Hard knocking #5 Golden Gift is getting a nod from me based on his 11YO status, synthetic record of 7/9 ITM, and realistic placement. Now, I don’t want an eleven-year-old gelding coming in off of a three-month layoff, but his numbers certainly fit with these. There is quite a bit of early speed signed on for this low-level claiming race, so I can certainly envision a scenario where he will right there at the wire, but I can’t endorse this type of play, even at Turfway. That said, we gotta use him in horizontals, no? #9 Rio Seco has shown some affinity for the synthetic footing by being 9/15 ITM, but his lone Turfway Park start was extremely dull. In fact, that race was sandwiched between two other dull efforts at Hawthorne, but he has been facing much better competition. Six-year-old horses don’t usually get too sideways at this level, so I can easily envision a return to his polytrack glory days of Arlington Park as they are only five months in his rear-view window. Owner/trainer Justin Sherman hasn’t won in the past year, but #10 Laflowmylaxbro used to be a Turfway monster. Just saying. It’s tough to envision an o-fer trainer and an o-fer jockey combine for a win off a five-month layoff, but this is Turfway Park.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 40000n2x 6 1/2 F 4YO&Up F&M
7-3-1-6
Tonight’s feature race looks to be a showdown of the early controlling speed of #7 Bizzee Mischief and the consistency of a Candy Ride granddaughter #3 Summer Delivery.Summer Delivery held her own at Keeneland and Churchill Downs earlier this year winning an allowance race against Boujie Girl and even ran second to Lady Apple at Oaklawn back in February 2019. She’s plenty good enough to win, but I am curious about her making her first synthetic start after eight career races and never trying the sod. Those questions alone put me on Bizzee Mischief. She is coming in this race with a five-race win streak where she has been controlling each race on the front end and wiring her competition. She’s a perfect 4/4 winning here at Turfway and is 11/13 ITM on the all-weather strips across America. She even has a 1/14/20 Turfway workout since her last victory. She already looks tough to beat and she could even improve for trainer Kim Hammond. #1 Lady Madison could be an interesting play as she gets Lasix for her first race in America after starting her career in Great Britain. Her Keeneland works show some talent, she attracts jockey Alan Garcia, and she even has an all-weather win across the pond.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n1y 6 F 4YO&Up
2-8-3-14
Another full field of twelve and two AEs are entered in tonight’s last race of our Turfway park card. Owner/trainer Wesley Ward is up to his old shenanigans with #3 Finnegan coming into this race off a 14 month lay-off and a massive drop in class. Judging by the breaks in his running lines, he has been a difficult horse to keep sound, but it’s hard to ignore his Turfway Park success. Is Wesley Ward putting the “for sale” sign on this grandson of Storm Cat? Maybe. Can he win? Maybe. Am I worried about him? Maybe. Will I play against him? Definitely. If we can get just a little pace duel, and there are plenty of front-runners signed on, #8 At Guard is plenty good enough to track the leaders and get first run at the leaders. He might be a touch dull lately, but he is 6/7 ITM on the all-weather surface and he has pulled this trick before. #2 Buster Brown Boy has made three successful trips over the Turfway synthetic in five tries, but his last attempt on 12/14/19 sure wasn’t one of them. Trainer Genaro Garcia claimed him that night, put a couple works in him, shortens him up to a sprint, and gives him some weight relief by using an apprentice in the saddle. This 5YO ran 14 times last year without much of a break, so I gotta believe he is sound enough for me to take the price and Garcia’s magic. Then again, Ward and Finnegan could burn my tickets.