2019 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 2
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[This is the second edition of the new Kentucky Derby Futures Index found on The Daily Gallop. Just as a little refresher, here is what hopefully will set this feature apart from all the other Top 10 lists of Derby contenders that come out at this time of year. Rather than just a mere ranking of three year olds aspiring to reach the starting gates on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, this column will treat these potential Derby contenders as if they are commodities on the stock market. Thus opinions will be offered on which horses should be considered major competitors to potentially hit the board in the Derby and therefore their stocks should be bought into as well as which horses are mere pretenders and thus should be divested from as their stock value is falling. Just like a real futures index, this piece will try an provide projections as to which runners may offer the most value going forward up until Derby Day on May 4th.
When considering possible candidates for both the BUY and SELL lists, two major criteria were taken into consideration. First and foremost, the horse must have run in a prep race on the 2019 Road to the Kentucky Derby on or after January 1st, 2019. Thus big names like Game Winner, Improbable, Instagrand, and Roadster are all disqualified; although in the coming weeks, all of these three year olds will soon be eligible to be mentioned on either list, provided they run in and earn points in a prep race. The second item concerns runners that were on the Derby trail but have since been removed either due to injury or poor performance; these horses are ineligible to make either list as well as it is not fair to offer up opinions on horses that do not have any chance of making the starting gates on May 4th at Churchill Downs. This week will add a new layer of intrigue to each list as now not only will the current week’s ranking (for each horse) be displayed but the prior week’s ranking will be listed as well. This should give a better sense of whether or not a horse’s value is improving or slipping or if there is a new contender to watch out for going forward. So without further ado, let’s unveil this week’s Top 5 BUY/SELL Nominees.]
BUY
1 (1). War of Will: (War Front-Sadler’s Wells; Mark Casse; Gary Barber; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 1st in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 60 Kentucky Derby points)
It should be no surprise to see War of Will remaining in the top spot as thus far no other runner on the 2019 Derby trail has accumulated more points than this son of War Front nor has any other contender looked as strong when easily handling quality fields in both the Lecomte and Risen Star. Although this colt has just three dirt starts to his name, both of his stakes efforts have been quite impressive as War of Will managed to pair up 110 TimeForm speed ratings in both performances. His primary running style of a pace-presser/pace-stalker should be of great benefit going forward as he looks to pull off the Fair Grounds trifecta when contesting the Louisiana Derby (G1) later this month. As he already has more than enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1), barring any major setback, look for this one to be in the gates on May 4th.
2 (2). Mucho Gusto: (Mucho Macho Man-Giant’s Causeway; Bob Baffert; Michael Lund Peterson; 4-3-1-0; 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 14 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This colt was clearly second best to stablemate Improbable after fading late down the stretch in last December’s Cash Call Futurity at Los Alamitos. However, over a wet track at Santa Anita, he displayed a new facet to his running style as he was able to effectively stalk the initial leaders through the slop before making a bid for the lead in the final turn and then drawing clear in the stretch to win by nearly five lengths. The 111 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort was a slight regression from the 113 he earned in December but that newly found running style versatility and affinity for the slop should suit him well going forward. Since his most recent effort, he has posted several very solid four furlong works over the main track at Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, including two bullets. The connections have indicated that a start for Mucho Gusto in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park is possible and should he run well next weekend, he will likely qualify for the Derby. As Mucho Gusto does not have nearly the same amount of hype surrounding him as stablemates Game Winner and Improbable do, there is the definite possibility that he could be potentially be a bit overlooked on Derby Day.
3 (NR). Code of Honor: (Noble Mission-Dixie Union; Shug McGaughey; W.S. Farish; 4-2-1-0; 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 54 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
After a poor performance in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes (Listed) at Gulfstream Park in January forced Shug McGaughey to go back to the drawing board with this colt, the trainer vowed to not repeat the same mistake (of not having his runner fully prepared) the next time out. Beginning in the middle of January until the end of February, Code of Honor posted seven works over the training track surface at Payson Park, including several bullets, in hopes of being ready to fire in the Fountain of Youth. All that preparation certainly paid off for Shug and the connections as Code of Honor, with John Velazquez aboard, caught a wicked initial pace and after effectively rating early on, were able to move up, challenge and then drive past a tiring Hidden Scroll down the stretch. The 118 TimeForm speed rating he received for his efforts marked a career best and it appears his running style is incredibly versatile (he has run well on the pace, whilst stalking the pace, and when closing from well back). This adaptability could be a major asset to him going forward as it does not appear that he is particularly pace dependent. His connections have indicated that a potential next out start in the Florida Derby (G1) is likely, although he has accrued enough points already to qualify for the Derby.
4 (3). Tax: (Arch-Giant’s Causeway; Danny Gargan; R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, et al; 4-2-1-1; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3); 12 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Although Tax’s effort in the Withers was not all that visually impressive as he narrowly held off Not That Brady to win by a head at the wire, he has continued to improve speed figure-wise in each and every start and the 118 TimeForm figure that he most recently earned ranks as the highest speed figure earned by any winner of a prep race this year. Additionally, unlike many of these other three year olds, he has already has valuable experience racing twice at nine furlongs and will likely get at least one more nine furlong race under his belt prior to contesting the Derby; in contrast, many of the other major Derby contenders will likely only have one or two tries at nine furlongs before stepping into the starting gates on May 4th. He has posted just two works since that victory in the Withers, the first of which was quite slow, whilst the other more recent work suggests that Gargan is starting to crank him up again for a potential start in next month’s Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct. Going forward Tax will need to prove that he can easily outlast weaker rivals down the stretch and have enough stamina and speed left to fire off a faster final 1/8 of a mile split as that closing fraction for the Withers was a fairly pedestrian 13 seconds.
5 (NR). Bourbon War: (Tapit-Artie Schiller; Mark Hennig; Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star Stable; 4-2-1-0; 2nd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 21 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
The other newcomer to this week’s list, this beautifully bred son of Tapit made quite an impression in his 2019 stakes debut for trainer Mark Hennig and his connections after finishing a disappointing fourth last December in a very slow edition of the Remsen (G2). Bourbon War displayed a new facet to his running abilities as after breaking well from the gates, he was guided towards the rail for a ground saving trip by Irad Ortiz whilst chasing a swift initial pace. As the field turned for home, Bourbon War unleashed a devastating late closing kick and nearly caught Code of Honor at the wire. For his efforts he earned a career best 115 TimeForm speed rating and demonstrated that he is not particularly pace dependent as previously he had raced much closer to slower initial paces and still finished well. Bourbon War will likely get a rematch with Code of Honor in the Florida Derby in about four weeks time and should he at least finish in the money, he will likely make it to the starting gates on the first Saturday in May.
NR (5). Country House: (Lookin at Lucky-War Chant; Bill Mott; Shields, Jr., Mrs. J.V., McFadden, Jr., E.J.M. and LNJ Foxwoods; 4-1-2-0; 2nd in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 20 Kentucky Derby points)
This was actually a fairly tough decision to make as there are a number of runners that could have potentially fit into this spot, including Country House’s stablemate Hidden Scroll (though he is actually going to end up elsewhere). After breaking his maiden in impressive fashion in January at Gulfstream Park with an absolutely brilliant turn of foot down the stretch, Country House was ambitiously pointed towards the Risen Star by Mott. In a race that featured a virtual pace collapse in the final turn, Country House with his late-closing running style did well to charge down the stretch and get second, earning a 104 TimeForm speed rating in doing so. However, he appeared to still be fairly green whilst racing down the lane, despite it being the fourth start of his career, and he will certainly need to show improving maturity not only in his works leading up to but also in his potential next start in the Louisiana Derby. Thus far Country House does not appear to be especially dependent upon a fast initial pace in order to run well and if he can continue to display that incredible closing running style of his (which is certainly well-suited to the long stretch run at Churchill Downs), he should be a serious contender moving forward.
SELL
1 (2). Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 6-1-1-2; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 4 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Plus Que Parfait lands here in this spot by virtue of Maximus Mischief having been indefinitely sidelined from the Derby trail due to an injury he suffered during a morning work on February 24th at Gulfstream Park. 2019 has been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Thus far he has finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. His speed figures are trending in the wrong direction and perhaps a layoff or a change of scenery might be in order for Plus Que Parfait in order to get him back into proper form. While Plus Que Parfait remains in training for Walsh, there has been no indication as to what direction the connections will proceed in regarding future races for him.
2 (3). Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Knicks Go burst onto the scene late in 2018 when he scored a massive upset win in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October at odds of 70.0-1 and then followed that up with a solid second place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) the next month at Churchill Downs at odds of 40.5-1. Since then things have gone all downhill for this colt as he was likely coming out of form and did not appreciate the sloppy track at Churchill when finishing 11th in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). His lone start of 2019 in the Sam F Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay was rather ignominious as the field let Well Defined get out to an easy early lead and Knicks Go futilely tried to chase after him from second, at least initially. Knicks Go was never able to get closer than two lengths to Well Defined and as the field turned for home, it appeared that the effort had sapped his stamina and he faded down the stretch and finished a well-beaten fifth. That was the second straight race now in which Knicks Go has faded down the lane after being in an ideal stalking position throughout much of the early portion of those races; this habit is fairly concerning and the downward trend that his speed figures are displaying makes it very difficult to endorse this colt any longer. The connections have suggested that Knicks Go may make his next start in the one-turn mile Gotham Stakes (G3) this Saturday at Aqueduct and perhaps that will be the necessary kick-start that is needed to get him back on track.
3 (5). Mind Control: (Stay Thirsty-Lightnin N Thunder; Gregory Sacco; Red Oak Stable (Brunetti), and Madaket Stables LLC; 5-3-1-0; 1st in the Jerome Stakes (Listed); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
Mind Control warrants inclusion on this list for the simple reason that he has not been seen since the Jerome Stakes which was run on January 1st of 2019. Although he earned a 107 TimeForm speed figure in that effort, the field that he faced was not particularly robust and the initial pace of that race was rather pedestrian. When combined with the front-running racing style that he displayed in that performance, all signs point towards not considering him as a serious contender going forward. While, the connections have indicated that he will make his next start in the one-turn mile Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct this, his recent works do not lend confidence to him running well as they have not been particularly solid. Furthermore, Mind Control will be squaring off against a fairly strong field as both Much Better for trainer Bob Baffert and Instagrand (making his 2019 debut) for Jerry Hollendorfer are expected to add some West Coast flavor to this year’s edition of the race.
4 (NR) Well Defined: (With Distiniction-Medaglia d’Oro; Kathleen O’Connell; Stonehedge LLC; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
Normally a gate to wire effort in a graded stakes race in which the winner bests his rivals by nearly three lengths would be a worthy achievement that should be lauded. However, Well Defined’s effort in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs at the beginning of February was far from impressive. Although he did earn a career best 114 TimeForm speed rating, when his jockey, Pablo Morales, accelerated out to an early lead after breaking well from the gates, not a single one of the other projected early speed runners in the field went with him or were even close enough to apply any sort of pace pressure. Thus Well Defined enjoyed a rather uncontested pace on the front end throughout the entire race and that should give individuals pause when considering how he will run the next time out if he were to actually get into a speed duel on the front end or face pressure from his rivals. That most recent effort was leaps and bounds his fastest performance in quite a long time but that huge speed figure suggests that he may likely bounce in his next possible start this Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Unless he absolutely dominates that field, his chances of making it into the starting gates in May are quite slim.
5 (NR) Hidden Scroll: (Hard Spun-Empire Maker; Bill Mott; Juddmonte Farms, Inc; 2-1-0-0; 4th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 5 Kentucky Derby points)
The inclusion of Hidden Scroll on this list will likely be an incredibly unpopular decision but there is a very good chance that if Hidden Scroll redeems himself in his next out effort, he will be removed from this list. On Saturday in the Fountain of Youth, Hidden Scroll was bumped off stride and subsequently lost a few steps off the start but was soon hustled up to the lead by jockey Joel Rosario whereupon this colt was very keen to commence dueling with a hopeless longshot in Gladiator King. Although he eventually put away Gladiator King and initially fended off his challengers in the final turn, when Code of Honor came calling and moved up to challenge, Hidden Scroll had no response and despite fighting back gamely down the stretch, simply had nothing left in reserve and missed out on third by a neck. This was just Hidden Scroll’s second start of his career and after posting a 119 TimeForm speed rating in a 14 length romp through the slop in January at Gulfstream Park, he was rewarded with a 120 speed rating this time out. Hidden Scroll appeared quite headstrong throughout the initial stages of the race which likely led to him engaging in that stamina sapping speed duel. There are likely many factors that could have resulted in the somewhat poor performance by Hidden Scroll on Saturday: his overall immaturity, his lack of experience contesting the pace with rivals, his inability to rate, and miscalculations by the jockey. No single factor can be pinpointed as to being the reason why Hidden Scroll was unable to battle on down the stretch and win the Fountain of Youth. Going forward, it is quite possible that the connections will give him a bit of time off as his first two efforts were monstrous performances (at least speed rating wise) and may have taken a bit out of him. Additionally, Hidden Scroll is either going to need to begin to display that he at least has some interest in rating or is more responsive to his jockey’s commands in the works leading up to his next race. Should he demonstrate that he is capable of either of these actions in his next start, he will likely find himself removed from this list.