Race 1
(6) R Ways to Escape – Not a very exciting pick to start the card but she is in good form, has a pace advantage, likes the track and distance, well spaced races and is just a little faster than the others in here. The 2/1 Morning Line will probably seem a little generous if you try to bet this one to win.
(2) Colorincolonel – The second choice on the ML Sunset Empire won last time with an easy lead and soft pace, stretching out today and chasing the favorite might do her in turning for home so I would prefer some of the others underneath. Colorincolonel owns some of the best late pace figures of the group and has closed well in recent starts at Tampa.
(7) Babie Monster – The barn has been a little cold of late but if she can put together one of her better efforts she should be in that pack stalking the favorite and at times has shown ability to finish well going this distance. Should be a decent price to play underneath.
Race 2
(6) Caught Up In You – Showed a little more early lick in her last race, taking another drop and getting back to a level she should be tough. 3rd place finisher in last came back to lose a 25k at Gulfstream by a neck.
(3) Suzie’ssteppinout – Confident ride by Allen in her victory here a couple weeks ago, wasn’t off to the best of starts, once she got into stride he swung her outside in the clear, wide around turn and she finished up best of all, takes a step up in class today but has made nice steady progress in her efforts.
(2) Snow Forecast – Was cool to see 64 year old Gilberto Laiz, who doesn’t ride often, get his first win since 2016 with this filly first time out. She is the daughter of 2012 Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective.
Race 3
(4) Factum’s Reward – All That Jazz seems to have lost a little of her early speed as a 5 year old so that might leave the only other speed in the race Factum’s Reward loose on an easy lead.
(7) Increased Scrutiny – Has a speed figure advantage on this group but just too many question marks for me to take at a short price, has put in some dull efforts after a break in the fall, ran 3 times on dirt in off the turf races but this will be the first time entered in dirt race.
(1) Nelo Margarita – Takes her a little while to get into stride and always finds herself well back at first call, might clunk up for a piece late.
Race 4
(6) Fledermaus – I know this one is 0/13 and will be another short price but he seems to be improving and always tries hard to the finish, I think he has caught the right group today and breaks that maiden. Centeno also sticks aboard.
(7) Artie’s Best – Kelly Rubley has better numbers with second time starters, Artie was bumped around at the start in his debut and was never really close after falling way back. He did take some money in the debut and with a little cleaner start should stay closer to the pace today and will be a long price.
(9) Riendo – Was in tight early and got shuffled back to last in previous effort, gets another try at the same level today.
Race 5
(9) Honest to Goodness – Raced well in debut showed a good amount of speed from the gate and gained a good position into first turn, got in a position around turn where he was stuck behind horses and tried to go through a gap but didn’t have room and steadied, losing all momentum.
(4) Dance an Irish Jig – Takes another drop today, coming off a race at Gulfstream where he lost a lot of ground racing wide.
(5) Delta Levy – Has been a consistent runner finishing in the money more than half the time but always leaves himself a little too much work left when turning for home.
Race 6
(7) Rol Again Question – Has a win at this distance and track two back, is in good form and should be on or near lead, been in the exacta in half his races.
(3) Wild Wigglin Jack – One paced type of runner that is proven over the track with all 3 lifetime wins coming here.
(5) Beltway – Might regress a little off that big effort in the last or maybe Rini just has this one going well again.
Race 7
(1) He’s No Lemon – This 3 year old Lemon Drop Kid should like the extra distance today, has been a slow starter but gets a little softer group today combined with the extra distance should make him tough to beat.
(9) Lundqvist – Not the best of starts in either try so far, the added distance should help also.
(8) Daddy’s On Strike – Didn’t seem to want any part of racing on the debut, was hard to load then off slow but did finish up with some interest, should be better with that experience.
Race 8
(6) Dog Soldier – Speedy 7 year old has won half of his races at this distance, give this one a slight advantage in a competitive race.
(3) Night Rythm – In a race with quite a bit of speed should pass a few faders down the lane and will be a decent price underneath.
(4) Kind Dude of Ocala – Threw in a clunker last time but chased the pace wide then had nothing left for the finish.
Race 9
(1) Girl On a Mission – Will see if Gallardo can get her to relax a little more today, has been working well and with the draw should get a nice inside trip near the lead.
(7) Ask Stacy – Hot barn and with her speed should be able to get a good position into first turn, will be the horse to beat in this race.
(3) Lady Brexit – Was disappointing as the favorite in the last but I think she has a little more talent than she showed there.