Selections & Analysis by @Lightningjay_
(All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions.)
RACE 1
6 – SMART BUT FOOLISH (8/5) – 2nd off the layoff; consistent sort 14-22 in the money; no standouts here; has a win over the surface; edge in a race where I’ll be 3 deep.
7 – ENTERTAINER (3/1) – Only 2-39 and has lacked the ability to finish strong in any of his route attempts. That said, he’s a contender, which tells you a lot about this field.
4 – DAMAGE CONTROL (7/2) – Another who appears to not want to go this far but should be on or near the pace and may get bold.
6 – 7 – 4 – 2
RACE 2
$ 5 – SACRED CANYON (5/1) – Going for a bit of value in another race where I’ll be 3 deep. 1st off the claim for Anthony Ferraro who’s a far better conditioner than his numbers would indicate. (Watch for him when he brings his string to Finger Lakes in April.) This 8yo bounced last time and now goes 3rd off a layoff. She’s won 3 of 5 here including a win against $12,500 claimers at this distance last year.
3 – PATRIOTIC ENDEAVOR (2/1) – 1st off the claim for Carrasco & up in class but had been facing better before romping for $5k. Spieth’s choice over 2 class droppers.
7 – THIRTY NINE SEVEN (7/2) – Class hike is minimal as this one defeated $19k foes last summer at WO. On the stretch-out and 3rd off the claim for Joan Scott (26%). Figures to be right there.
5 – 3 – 7 – 6
RACE 3
*9 – RHYTHMIA (5/2) – In a race where many of these are coming off their maiden wins, it became a rider’s race for me. Gallardo’s choice over the 4 & 8 and is well-spotted at $20k after winning for $32k.
8 – GETTEM UP BOY (4/1) – Another who’s faced better for trainer Randy Klopp (21%). He’s had a bit of trouble in his last 2 turf starts and figures to contend for top honors today. Camacho’s choice over the 6.
6 – SI SI McD (3/1) – Improving in every start, this son of Graydar rated for the first time in his latest. These are 2 signs you like to see in a 3yo. Lynch gets the call and I would not dismiss.
9 – 8 – 6 – 5
RACE 4
$ 1 – PRINCES DYNAMITE (5/1) – Makes her 1st start at Tampa and drops to her lowest level. Camacho rides and from the rail, she has every right to run big. Maybe a bit of value.
6 – SHANGHAI SHUFFLE (5/2) – After breaking her maiden for $25k, she beat half the field in a NW2 for $12,500. Was 2nd best last time at $8k and returns at the level. The one to beat.
4 – LADY ALIDA (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff for low percentage barn so it’s possible she regresses some. Does have the best early speed figures so I will use underneath.
1 – 6 – 4 – 8
RACE 5
9 – READY TO MINGLE (10/1) – Any of 5 horses can win this so I suggest going deep. My choice adds blinkers in 3rd start, drops to lowest level and tries the turf. Mare is by BC turf champ Singletary and at the price, I’m willing to put on top as speed has played well over this course.
5 – IRISH MAIL (4/1) – This son of Trappe Shot (Tapit) out of a Kitten’s Joy mare comes in fresh and the price is cut in half. Showed speed against better.
1 – DUKE OF MONROE (5/2) – Ran a solid race at this level 1st time over the turf last time. Figures to improve 3rd off the bench but will it be enough?
9 – 5 – 1 – 10 – 8
RACE 6
6 – PROFESSIONAL (7/2) – Some well-bred 3yo’s contest the tricky 7 furlong distance. I like the workout pattern on this son of Speightstown and he gets the services of Camacho as well. All systems go in debut.
3 – ZIEG (3/1) – Centeno gets aboard this son of Bodemeister off a sharp series of 5 furlong works. Very important to see how they look in the paddock before you make your final decisions.
5 – MR SMURTHWAITE (5/1) – Figures to have gained valuable experience in that opener and now he’s facing better. The breeding is there, so I would not dismiss.
6 – 3 – 5 – 4
RACE 7
9 – BONITA SPRINGS (7/2) – Tepid choice in another wide-open turf event. Just can’t get past her effort last time. There appears to be plenty of pace signed on and she’s shown the ability to stalk and close.
6 – AQUEMINI (5/1) – Mare is a bit camera shy but game nonetheless. She’s faced better and Camacho should have her rolling late.
5 – KOOL KATE (5/2) – Pretty good class drop and looks to be primed for a top effort 3rd off the layoff. In a race with other speed she does her best running when allowed to set the pace which is doubtful today.
9 – 6 – 5 – 2
RACE 8
$$ 9 – HOLLIS (8/1) – The speed of the speed. From the outside post, Castanon will have plenty of time to find the front. He does show the ability to rate but may just run them off their feet at a price.
7 – NAVY ARMED GUARD (10/1) – Was on the early Derby trail last year and makes his 1st start since Sept. Solid work tab and a must use at this price.
5 – HALFBACK (6/1) – In for the tag as he’s won at this level. Should be tighter 2nd off the layoff for leading trainer Bennett (30%) and Gallardo stays aboard.
9 – 7 – 5 – 2
RACE 9
$ 4 – ASTUTE WARRIOR (9/2) – Back in where he belongs after 1st start off the layoff. Should be ready to roll at a bit of a price as evidenced by sharp workout.
3 – AND WON (7/2) – In fine form these days and is shrewdly placed by trainer Granitz (26%). Looks to go back to back and the distance should be no problem.
6 – MARKSMAN (3/1) –Dedicated miler won at this level back in November. Questions remain about this distance, so I wouldn’t take too low of a price. One of the few mounts for Centeno.
4 – 3 – 6 – 1
RACE 10
6 – ZACAPA RUN (5/2) – Son of Into Mischief got the turf and distance he wanted last time and ran a game 2nd. Graduation day today?
1 – URBAN BUCKEYE (15/1) – From the rail, expect this one to show plenty of speed and is likely to outrun his odds.
2 – MISTER MIKEY (8/1) – Away slowly in a couple starts and caught a sloppy track in between. Has finished with interest and is the type that could wake up over the turf.
(If 12 – Lake Nakuru (6/5) draws in, he becomes my top play.)
6 – 1 – 2 – 8
Pick 5 Plays:
Race 1) 4.6.7 / 3.5.7 / 6.8.9 / 1.6 / 1.5.8.9.10
Race 6) 3.4.5.6 / 2.3.5.6.9 / 2.3.5.7.8.9 / 3.4.6 / 6
$ – Value Plays
*-Best Bet
Best of Luck!
@Lightningjay_