Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday 7/1/20- By Dave Vaccaro
MatrixDave@followthefigures
RACE 1
3-ALLEGIANCE will most likely be favored here and will most likely be on the lead. Comes from a race two back where he won gate to wire with pressure, overcoming a faster than average pace to win. Horse rates as both my target and ability runner.
4-SEVENTYSEVENWILLOW will stalk of press pace here and was a victim of very slow pace last out. Has run evenly last two tries and moves back to route today where trainer Minieri is 13% wit this move.
7-UNSPOILED MOMENTS ran wide throughout last out, working from the back against an unfavorable slow early going. Closed strongly two back and but need more distance. Today’s 1mile 40 yds may suit well.
1-HALEL had an excuse last out against better company when breaking last. Horse is a stalker who was a victim of crawling pace two and three back when hitting a wall mid race both times. He may run into more suitable early fractions today and should be at a nice price.
RACE 2
8-RENEEISINHEAAVEN– Cuts back today and likes the lead. Handled last out until the ¾ mark before fading. Trainer is 15% off layoff and need the lead today.
7-LAWAPA-presser moving up a bit in class but has some hidden ability in her running lines. Has run very evenly last four times out. Bumped at the break last out and should be near the lead today ready to pounce.
5-SHES A LADY GRIZ cuts back today and move to the main track after a 2 length move on the far turn last out. Closed strongly, overcoming a poor start.
9-HERZEALOUS is a bit of a reach here but the early effort last two out shows signs of improvement.
RACE 3
2-CADET CONNELY my target and ability horse should be the public favorite. Has put up big pace numbers in all of 2020. Should be right on the leader where he has run well in all of 2020. The class drop today should make this horse much the best in this field.
4-CARMELITO got a pace break last out where he pressed and won by a head against similar company. Pace figures last two have all been above par but hit an overall ceiling last out which could point to a bounce.
1-HIGH HEATER looking for third straight victory and steps up in company. Runs right with the pace and capitalized last two times out on a quicker than average front end. No stranger to this surface or distance.
5-DANCERONTHEBEACH will vie for the front end while breaking his maiden two back in this fashion. Despite pressure, early going was still way below average. Can run a bit off the pace but looks to need the front for a score today.
RACE 4
8-UGLY DUCKLING drops in class and looks to break his maiden in his second lifetime start. The early footing at MCL 25 last out followed by the morning bullet work last week points to this horse being ready.
7-TINKERS PAL back on the main track today at 6F where he closed on the stretch two back with a better than average kick. Showed early interest last out around two turns on the grass and could contend today.
5-REACHFORASIXPACK should be at a decent price while getting the lead last out before fading. Second time out on dirt and may need to sit a little off the pace today for the maiden score.
4-STOPIT is a first-time starter coming from a 17% barn In this category. Trainer is 25% with debut maiden claimers.
RACE 5
1-DRILL BIT has top target and ability ratings of the field trainer is 16% when moving up one class. Likes to run from the back and has shown life both on the turn as well as the stretch in his last three. Should get a more than fair price today.
4-IN HONOR OF ARTIE top final fraction coming out of last race despite a less than appealing running line. Ran his best race back on 5/6 where he posted top overall speed for this field. Another one who will be coming late.
9-SWIFT KID is a late runner who has made his best moves on the turn last two out. Drops a bit in class today and should be a bit closer to the pace as well.
3-STINGSLIKEABEE has been snake-bitten since the DQ off the win back in 9/19. Tries the grass again for the first time this year and moves to two turns. This may be the set-up this horse has needed.
RACE 6
8-WAY TO SUCCESS enters for only the second time in 2020 after showing late kick last out against similar. Top speed rating in the field should sit back and make her move mid race.
7-DREAMS OF SHIRLEY will look for the front here where she went gate to wire last out with pressure for the maiden score. Trainer is 17% off maiden score.
2-ROSALDA will press the pace while taking a drop in class. Cuts back to one turn and moves to the grass today. Ran some even races from off the pace early on this year on the dirt surface. Ronald Allen up for the first time.
9-C.A.C. CHAQUIRA comes out of a key race two back where she didn’t fire. Showed early interest last out against same company and will most likely be at a long price.
RACE 7
9-REWROTE closed strongly last out after getting a terrible break. Likes to be closer to the pace where she ran well two back against better. May be at a short price today.
1-BATI BATI could be a sleeper here with only one grass try which was last out against same company. Filly exploded on the tun with a 6 length gain and will most likely look to be a little more forwardly placed today.
4-ONE SLICK FACT is the class of the field coming off of booming pace numbers in all of 2020. Will most likely look for the lead today and the class may help the speed to carry. Trainer is 18% 2nd off of layoff
5-TEGLA shows some hidden mid-race factors last two times out that puts this horse in contention. Look for her to be forwardly placed early for best chance at success.
RACE 8
This race was a PASS for me.
RACE 9
8-VINTNER after running evenly last out against a slow pace. Has the potential to be the best here with top 76 target rating of the field.
7-FADE AWAY also drops in class after a strong move on the turn last out to finish with top final fraction of this field. Should press today’s pace but has shown ability to run from the back as well.
4-EMBATTLED may be the speed of the speed here and the one to catch down the stretch. Drops in class today which will help him on the front end. Needs the lead here.
1-ERIC THE SALESMAN another front-end type who may be better off sitting just off the pace today. Has shown the ability to stalk the pace and be successful. May be the favorite in this race.
RACE 10
1-KING OF LEINSTER can run off the pace but can snatch up the lead as well. Steps up in class after a very even pressing effort against faster than average pace last out. Only horse in the field to break par and figures as both my target and ability horse.
9-MORE THAN READY top final fraction off last out showed a strong late move last out on the grass at today’s distance.
8-IRISH MAIL moves back to dirt for the first time in 2020. Has shown speed on the grass in the past coming off two back to back pressing efforts on the main track.
4-HUSBAND IN LAW is my longshot play here who could very well steal this race. Comes off a string of stalking efforts before fading late.
You can follow Dave Vaccaro on Twitter at MatrixDave@followthefigures.