Greetings from southwest Florida! Visiting family and enjoying time with my sons. I’m three-and-a-half hours south of Tampa Bay Downs. As much as I want to drive up there, lots going on down here: Swimming, FGCU basketball and of course the Red Sox. Now onto Friday’s races.
RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000N2Y, ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS, DIRT, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
I’m tempted to pick #1. LITTLE LEO. He’s got good speed figures, but he finished out of the money in his last two races. I’m going with #5. SKY CITY. Gelding loves this distance at TAM. Lost by a neck two back going a mile and 40, and then four back he won at this distance. Guess what? Same distance today. SKY CITY will deliver.
RACE 2: OC$75,000/N1X, ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
Today’s marquee race. Legendary trainer Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez have a horse in this race. #2. SPINOFF is their only entry. Are either really going to show up for this race? Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a jockey change. Johnny V. wouldn’t come all the way to TAM to just ride in one race. Either way, you really can’t bet against a colt who placed ITM in a G2 race at Saratoga. Should be the easiest bet of the day.
RACE 3: CLAIMING $25,000N2L, ONE MILE, TURF, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UP
First race on the sod and first race of the day for top jockey Samy Camacho. He’s riding on #3. SHANGHAI JEWEL and the filly is trained by Gerald Bennett. Bennett’s got all kinds of karma moves for this race, dirt-to-turf, sprint-to-route, and a jock change from Mike Allen to Camacho. All that alone makes this a cinch of a bet.
RACE 4: MAIDEN $25,000 CLAIMING, SIX-AND-A-HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE YEARS OLD AND UP
The only one that looks good in this field is #8. TOPSHUR. Trainer Jose Delgado is hot at TAM right now. This is TOPSHUR’s first race after a claim and Delgado is batting .40 at this angle. He’s also batting .33 with horse going from route to sprint and the gelding is running first time with blinkers. He’s also one of the freshest (lightly-raced) horses in the field. All looks good for Delgado and the connections.
RACE 5: OPTIONAL CLAIMER $40,000/SAL $32,000, MILE AND SIXTEENTH, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
Gonna go with #5. QUALITY STEP. Colt won last time out and trainer Keith Nations is batting .29 with horses that won their last race. Colt seems to take a liking to jockey Feargal Lynch too (two races: second and first).
RACE 6: MAIDEN $16,000 CLAIMING, ONE MILE AND 40 YARDS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
#6. EPIC JUNIOR lost by a head two back at this distance. That was when Raul Mena was aboard. This time the colt gets Samy Camacho. Mena is a good jockey, but Camacho is a great jockey and he’ll position this gelding in the right spot and make their run.
RACE 7: CLAIMING, $16,000, ONE MILE, TURF, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
I like #8. ROCK SOLID GOLFER. Trained and owned by Keith Nations. Horses owned by Nations are 6-for-13, a .46 winning percentage over the last two meets. Gelding put in two solid races, each with a 70+ Beyer. Looks like the fresh horse. Nations is also batting .28 in turf races, .24 in routes, and .25 in claiming races. He has the best winning percentages among all the trainers. He’ll get his second win of the day with ROCK SOLID GOLFER.
RACE 8: MAIDEN $16,000, SEVEN FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
Crowded race, but #12 MIMI’S MANDATE will get the job done. Jockey Pablo Morales is due for a winner anyway. Here’s his. MIMI’S MANDATE is racing on first time Lasix. Trainer Ian Wilkes is batting .12 with first time Lasix horses, .24 with turf-to-dirt races and .24 in maiden claiming races. MIMI’S MANDATE is also making her first start of the meeting. In the last two meets, Wilkes is 10-49, .20 winning percentage, and .45 ITM. Looks like a solid play.
As always, I skip the last race. Enjoy your weekend. As for my friends up north, eat your heart out. LOL.