I’m back for my second foray in handicapping. Hopefully this week will go better for me.
RACE 1: Maiden, $10,000 claiming, 7 furlongs, fillies, 3-year-olds and up
I like #1. LOOKING COZY for the sole purpose that her trainer, Jose Chavez, is batting .25, $0.90 ROI with two races after a 180+ layoff. The filly is also going off at 5-2 odds and her Beyers are right up there with the others horses with a shot of winning.
#4. UNITED SONG: This filly likes TAM. Four-for-10 ITM% and ran the fastest Beyer at this distance vs. other foes (40 Beyer). Jockey Jose Bracho gets the mount and he’s having a pretty good meet so far (8 2 0 0 .25). UNITED SONG is also going off at 4-1 odds. Consider.
#6. EXOTIC GOLD offers some value (6-1). This filly finished out of the money in all of her races, but she has posted some good Beyers recently (44, 6, 38, 26). She’ll be making a class drop as well in this race. Give it a thought.
MY PICKS 1-4-6
RACE 2: Md Sp Wt $27K, 1 mile 40 yards, 2-year-old colts
All star trainers and all star owners up and down the card in this race.
#1 BERNOULLI is trained by Graham Motion and ridden by hot TAM jockey Pablo Morales (16 3 4 1 .19). Motion bats .22 on second start maidens, .17 from sprint to routes and .19 with horse coming off a 31-60-day layoff. Colt has been training well for this race. Low odds though, 2-1.
#3 MALIO’S is moving down in class for this one. Finished fifth in a $75K stakes race last time out and is well-placed this time out. Trainer Rory Miller is looking for his first win of the meet. He may just do it with leading jock Samy Camacho in the irons. Odds, 7-2.
#4. FIRM will get a lot of play because of his trainer that needs no introduction. In case you don’t know, I’ll spill the beans: It’s Hall of Fame Trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher bats .24 $1.61 ROI with first time starters, .24 with two-year-olds, and .27 with MSW horses. Colt will be going off at 9-5. Expect an overlay with this FTS.
Trainer Michael Stidham has two fine colts in this one #5 HARDAWAY (5-1) and #6. DESERT SPRING (6-1). Two very good value plays. Stidham bats .24 with second time maiden starts. Both of them are racing second time out. HARDAWAY has a hot jock on board, Antonia Gallardo, but DESERT SPRINGS has the hot connections: Godolphin LLC. Yeah, that outfit.
MY PICKS: 4-1-3
RACE 3: Md claiming $10,000, 1 1/16 MILE (TURF), 3-year-olds and up
The only horse I see winning this race is #3. TONY. Trainer Roy Lerman’s specialty is sprint to route races 9 .22 AVG. ROI $1.29. Lerman also won four races for the gelding’s connections Lambholm Stable. TONY is going off at 2-1. In the last six starts when Lerman’s horses go off at 5-2 or less, he has a .33 winning percentage and .88 ITM percentage. A shoe-in IMHO. Pass if you must.
MY PICK: 3
RACE 4: Md Sp Wt $22K, 6 ½ Furlongs (fillies, 3-year-old and up)
#1. SWEET DADDIO is trained by Kathleen O’Connell, who’s won two races so far, and she bats .22 with first-time starters. Add Gallardo to the mix and you have a filly with a good chance to win. Odds 7-2.
#2 SHANGHAI SHUFFLE is going off at odds of 2-1. Trainer Joan Scott is good at sprint races (108 .16 AVG. ROI $1.05) and MSW races (51 .16 AVG. ROI $1.06). In 14 starts with horses going off at 5-2 or less, Scott has five wins with a .36 winning percentage and .71 ITM. Respect.
#4 OUR PROMISE is a great value play at 10-1. Trainer Tim Hamm has won races two races in 12 starts for the connections, Blazing Meadows Farm LLC. Hamm is also 69 .17 AVG. ROI $2.51 with horses coming off a 61-180-day lay off. Daniel Centeno is in the irons and he’s having a hot meet too (22 5 4 6 .23). Go for it!
MY PICKS: 1-2-4
RACE 5: CLM $16,000N3L, 1 1/16 MILE (TURF) (3-year-olds and up)
#1 THULEAN has consistently high Beyers compared to the rest of the field. Horse likes TAM as well (Four races: One win, two shows and a 76 Beyer at a mile on turf). Trainer Anthony Granitz has also won two races for the connections. Going off at 5-2. Looks strong, just not the best odds.
#2. PROMETHIAN has a great trainer in Anthony Ferraro (379 65 .17 in 2018) and Jesus Castanon is having a pretty good meet so far (12 3 2 2 .18). Castanon has won before with Ferraro (Twice in 15 starts, a .15 winning percentage and a .46 ITM percentage) and horses owned by Ferraro are six-for-58, a .10 winning percentage and .31 ITM percentage). Ferraro owns this horse. Also going off at 6-1. Pretty generous, ya?
#3 KING TIDE is trained by Joseph Arboritanza and is going off at odds of 10-1. In the last 29 starts when Arboritanza’s horses go off at odds between 6-1 to 10-1, he’s had five wins at a .17 winning percentage and a .48 ITM percentage as well. This is a Bailey Bowen owned horse and Arboritanza has won five out of 18 races for this owner. This looks like a really great spot play!
#9 JAPONSKI ran a 74 Beyer at this distance and has a great trainer in Derek Ryan. Ryan is 84 .15 AVG. ROI $1.27 with horses coming off a 31-60-day layoff, 257 .13 AVG. ROI $1.33 in turf races and 159 .13 AVG. ROI $1.29 in claiming races. Colt has a lot of early speed and could run away from the field early. Going off at odds of 7-2.
MY PICKS: 1-2-3-9
RACE 6: Md $10,000, 1 MILE 40 YARDS, (3-year-olds and up)
#2 LITTLE TODD is switching to blinkers and trainer Bernardo Lopez is 5 .20 AVG. ROI $0.72 at this angle. Daniel Centeno also gets the call and he’s having a great meet, a .23 winning percentage. Odds are 7-2.
Kingpin jockey Samy Camacho will be aboard #6 KING AGRIPPA. Trainer Tom Monte has two winners in four races so far and he’s a dirt specialist (190 .16. AVG. ROI $1.50) and a maiden claiming specialist (117 .12 AVG. ROI $1.31). KING AGRIPPA is also going off at odds of 5-1. Worth considering.
#8 LIGHT BREEZE is trained by Kathleen O’Brien, a first-time trainer after a claim specialist. She’s batting .24 at this angle and Gallardo is in the irons again. Going at odds of 4-1. I like the gelding’s chances.
MY PICKS: 2-6-8
RACE 7: OC $32,000/N2X, 1 MILE (TURF) (Fillies 3-year-olds and up)
I’m gonna leave it here, the main race of the day.
I like #2 ACIANO, the four-year-old filly trained by Kelly Rubley. Jockey Pablo Morales will get the ride (12 3 4 1 .19). Rubley does well with horses coming off a 61-180 day layoff (49 .14 AVG. ROI $1.36) and bats .17 with horses winning their last start. ACIANO won last time out. Rubley also won five races for the connections, Gunpowder Farms LLC. Morning line odds are 3-1.
#3 JERMYN STREET LOVES TAM. The filly won at TAM five out of six races and ran an 81 Beyer a 1 1/8 Mile on this turf course. Trainer Keith Nations is hot out of the gate (5 2 0 1 .40) and bats .20 AVG. ROI $1.55 with horses winning last time out and that race was at TAM on April 18. JERMYN STREET is going off at better odds too 9-2.
#6 BELLERUE races at TAM for the first time ever. The filly has lots of front end speed and Daniel Centeno is aboard this one. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is 4 1 2 0 .25 at TAM right now and does well switching dirt to turf (49 .27 AVG. ROI $1.80). BELLERUE had a bullet workout on Nov. 24 and had another solid work on Dec. 2. Delacour also has six wins in 43 attempts when his horses go off between 5-2 to 5-1 (BELLERUE’s morning line odds are 7-2), that’s a .14 winning percentage and a .47 ITM percentage.
#10 PONTI SCHEME is trained by big-time trainer Christophe Clement. PONTI SCHEME ran a bullet workout on Nov. 15 and will be running late. The filly is one-for-one at TAM and won two out of three races at this distance with a high Beyer of 82. Morning line odds 4-1.
MY PICKS: 2-3-6-10