Hope you all had a wonderful holiday! Here’s my last one of the year. May you have better luck at the track in 2019!
RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 7 FURLONGS (DIRT) FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS
#3 KATCHUP TIZ (3-1) looks like the horse to beat. Trainer/Owner John Rigattieri bats .25 with horses racing their second start of the meet. KATCHUP TIZ is doing just that. Jockey Pablo Morales also won three out of six races last season for Rigattieri with an ITM of 100%. Gelding is switching from route to sprint as well. In the last three meets, Rigattieri won two out of 12 races going from route to sprint (.17, ITM 75%).
#5 BIG MAROON (2-1) has the Beyers to win this race (39, 46 and 31 in last three races). Trainer Tim Padilla has won five out of the last 16 races when his horses go off at 5-2 or lower. His horses also finish ITM 75% at those odds as well.
#6 PERSISTENT RUN (6-1) offers some value. This lightly raced gelding is improving Beyers-wise (1, 26, 25, 26). He should improve off the 31-60-day layoff as well. Other notable stat is that trainer Gerard Ochoa won three races for GOP Racing Stable and finished ITM 40%. These are the same owners for PERSISTENT RUN.
PICKS: 3-2
RACE 2: CLAIMING $8,000N3L, 6 FURLONGS (DIRT) FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
#3 GRAN TEPUY (6-1) offers some value. Gelding placed third against tougher foes in an allowance race three back (08-19 at Mnr). Bettors had respect for him in last race, sending him off as the favorite. Although GRAN TEPUY placed fifth, he was only four-and-a-half lengths from the winner.
#5 DEBDURITE (4-1) has been knocking on the door in his last three races. Finished ITM and can handle foes at this level. Gets a jockey change as well. Hopefully this will work.
#6 DOWN IN THE HOLLER (3-1) is an invader from the Maryland circuit. Won against tougher claimers at Lrl and made a mild rally late in his last race at Tam. Could win this time out.
#7 WILD WIGGLIN JACK (2-1) will be the odds on favorite. Won big against similar company last time out and trainer Dennis Ward bats .13 with horses who won last time out. Gelding did post a top Beyer. Will he bounce this time? Maybe.
MY PICKS: 3-5-6
RACE 3: CLAMING $5,000N2Y, A MILE AND 40 YARDS (DIRT) FOR FILLIES AND MARES
#2. DOROTHYFROMDUBLIN (6-1) placed second two back at this same level and this same distance. Should bounce back after her tough race in the slop.
#3 DESCARDO (6-1) has been consistent. Has respectable Beyers and has won against similar foes five back. Trainer Benny Feliciano has won nine races for this filly’s connections (9/37, .24 and ITM 65%). Filly is also 4-for-4 ITM at TAM. Respect.
#7 CHANNEL SURFING (3-1) is the tepid morning line favorite. Has consistently high Beyers and finished ITM in nine of her last 11 races. Has the best speed figures of them all.
#8 ALL GOOD TIMES (5-1) might be the forgotten horse. But check this angle out. Trainer John Rigattieri is 6/7 with a starter in a claimer race (below $40,000) making its second or third start off a 30+day layoff AND off in the 5-1 to 10-1 odds ranger. That’s a winning percentage of .43 and ITM 86%. I might go for this one.
MY PICKS: 8-3-7
RACE 4: CLAIMING $16,000, A MILE AND AN EIGHTH (TURF) FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD AND UP
I’m gonna skip this race. Any horse can win it. No one in particular stands out. There is a lot of value in this race. Bet on your own.
RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, SEVEN FURLONGS (DIRT) FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
#8 SHIMMYSHIMMY SHAKE (8-5) is going to win this race handily. Kathleen O’Connell is the Queen of FTS Maidens. She is 6-for-14 with horses owned by Ca Sal Stables LLC, Jockey Antonio Gallardo is her go-to rider. Gallardo is 27-for-83 for a .33 winning percentage. Plus, when her horses go off at <5-2, she’s 36-102 for a .35 winning percentage. Need I say more?
RACE 6: CLAIMING $25,000N3L, ONE MILE (TURF), FOR FILLIES AND MARES
#7 LADY LOVE (3-1) raced against tougher company at Sar and Bel. Trainer Anthony Granitz is batting .17 on first races after claims. Has won two races for the connections (Tri County Stables) and Granitz is a solid .31 with horses moving down in class.
#8 RADIANT BEAUTY (2-1) is trained by Arnaud Deacour who’s having a hot meet right now (8 2 2 2 .17). He’s also batting .28 AVG ROI $2.48 with horses making their first starts of the meet. This is RADIANT BEAUTY’s first start of the meet. Filly is making a class drop as well, won against high price claimers at Sar in July too.
#9 WISH UPON (5-2) is coming off a year-long layoff. New York trainer John Terranova is 13 .31 AVG. ROI $2.47) with horses coming off +180 layoffs. Has the best early speed figures of the field.
MY PICKS: 9-8-7
RACE 7: CLAIMING $16,000, 7 FURLONGS (DIRT), FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
#5 CLASSICAL LADY (5-1) is trained by Gerald Bennett, a two-year-old specialist. Filly won against higher priced claimers Dec. 1 at TAM. Bennett is 134 .22 AVG ROI $1.25 when his horses win last time out. That’s good.
#4 U KNOW I B LION (9-2) placed ITM in her last four races. Trainer Justin Johns is also a two-year-old specialist (11 .27 AVG. ROI $2.76) Filly also faced tougher company last time out at PID, $25,000n2L. Expect her to be ITM, at least.
#6 SUZIE’SSTEPPINOUT (4-1) faced tougher competition and won first time out at PID. Trainer Maria Bowersock is pulling all the stops for her filly to win. She’s going first-time Lasix, blinkers on and Bowersock has won before with horses owned by Martin Goodell. Worth a look.
#7 HI HI HOLLY (10-1) is my long shot of the day. Trainer Jose Delgado is having a super meet so far (12 3 2 3 .21). Filly has already won against $16,000 claimers at GP in August. Here’s an eye-popping statistic for Delgado: With horses going from route to sprint races, he bats .67 with an AVG. ROI $6.97! Don’t let this one pass.
MY PICKS 7-5-6-4
RACE 8: CLAIMING $16,000, ONE MILE (TURF), FOR FILLIES AND MARES
Tough race. A lot of good fillies and mares here. #5 MIKO (3-1) raced against tougher foes on the NYRA circuit and trainer Linda Rice bats well going from dirt to turf (360 .17 AVG. ROI $1.78). Gallardo rides for Rice too. Respect.
#8 ORDINARY LOVE (9-2) will be ridden by Samy Camacho. So that counts for something. What stands out are the mare’s record at TAM (10 2 2 1) and at this distance (18 5 5 2). Trainer Tom Foley bats 8 .12 AVG ROI $1.62 with horse who won last time out.
#13 PATRIOTIC ENDEVOUR (6-1) The Rigettieri-Speith-Aron Yagoda angle is all you gotta look at. Plus, Rigattieri is 6/7 with a starter in a claimer race (below $40,000) making its second or third start off a 30+day layoff AND off in the 5-1 to 10-1 odds ranger. That’s a winning percentage of .43 and ITM 86%. I might go for this one.
#11 QUEEN OF THE PARTY (5-2) won against similar company last time out. Trainer Derek Ryan bats .18 ITM 47% with horses making their third start at TAM. Jockey Castanon bats .30 for Ryan too. Has a good shot as well. I’m going to shy away from this one and go for the value.
MY PICKS: 13-11-5-8
RACE 9: CLAIMING $12,500N2L, SEVEN FURLONGS (DIRT), FOR FILLIES AND MARES 3-AND-UP.
#3 ANIMAUXSELLE (5-2) did well against similar company last time out, finishing second and rallying from the back. Could get the same trip again. Trainer-Jockey combo is 7-for-23 at a .30 winning percentage. Trainer Derek Ryan also won two races for the connections too.
#5 MAME (7-2) looks like the horse to beat. Trainer Michael Stidham is having a great meet (18 7 4 1 .39). Jockey Morales is also having a great meet at TAM and won last time out with this filly. Has a lot of front-end speed and could win this going away.
#8 COUNTRY LINEDANCER (9-2) may be the forgotten horse. Ships in from Maryland and beat tougher claimers at $25,000. Consider.
MY PICKS: 5-3-8
RACE 10: SKIP