Only two more weeks until Tampa Bay Downs goes dark. Been fun handicapping these last five months. Now let’s get to Friday’s races.
RACE #1 OC40K/SAL32K, A MILE AND A SIXTEENTH, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
I’m going with #2. DAKOTA’S DUDE. Gelding has the best Beyers going into today’s race. Trainer Jason Servis doesn’t have a lot of starters, but he’s efficient (6 3 3 1 .33). Servis has also some eye-popping stats when it comes to two races off a long layoff (111 .36 AVG. ROI $1.98), turf races (273 .34 AVG. ROI $2.08) and routes (174 .24 AVG ROI $1.58). Servis is the best trainer of them all in this. Safe bet.
RACE #2 OC 16k/N1X, SIX AND A HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
I’ve changed my mind several times but I’ll settle on #2. RATTLESNAKEROSE. Filly has a lot of front end speed, has already won at this distance, and the filly is three-for-eight at TAM. Trainer Gerald Bennett is batting 26% and he’ll rack up one more win.
RACE #3 Clm 8000N2L, ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP.
No one really stands out here. Any horse can win this race because they’re all bad. I’m going with #3. DIAMOND LUCKIE just because trainer Maria Bowersock is pretty good with horses winning their last start (26 .15 AVG. $1.10). Gelding should go off at nice odds too.
RACE #4, Md 25000, A MILE AND A SIXTEENTH, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
#8. APPLESOLUTELYRIGHT’s grand-daddy is the legendary AFFIRMED. Trainer Michael Stidham bats 33% with debut runners. With first-time turf runners he bats 20% and with first time debuts under a mile, he bats 19%. Good training numbers, plus the filly’s running on Lasix first time out. I’ll go with her.
RACE #5, Clm 16000N2L, A MILE AND A SIXTEENTH, TURF, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
#5. CARUCA looks like the best filly in the field. The trainer-owner combo between Darien Rodriguez and Acclaimed Racing Stable and Gumpster is good – 4-for-10 at a 40% clip over the last two meets. Filly has the best Beyers in the field and has jockey Pablo Morales in the irons. I’ll go with CARUCA.
RACE #6, MAIDEN CLAIMING, ONE MILE AND 40 YARDS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
Ugh … these poor horses. I’m going with #4. DUKE OF MONROE. Colt has some strong Beyers compared to the rest of the field and Samy Camacho is riding. He’s do for a win today and I think this will be the one. Trainer Laura Cazares does well with turf/dirt switches (20 .20 AVG. ROI $2.38) and Maiden Claiming races (45 .16 AVG. ROI $1.90). Colt will probably get a lot of chalk, but we’re going with the one who has the best chance to win.
RACE #7: Clm 8000N2L, ONE MILE AND 40 YARDS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UP
More sad horses 🙁 Nine horses in this field so my guess it’s anyone’s race. I’ll stick with #4. FIESTA MOON. Filly’s Beyers are consistent compared to the others. Jockey Pablo Morales is riding and trainer Nick Caruso has been efficient this season (41 10 7 5 .24). Morales almost won with this filly last time out and she was the betting favorite too. Filly looks like she’s on the upswing too. Safe bet.
RACE #8: CLM 20000, ONE MILE, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
Best trainer-jock combo of them all. Gerald Bennett-Samy Camacho is 15-for-38 with a 37% winning clip last season. Still strong one year later. Samy will get his second win of the day.
I skip the last race. Good luck.