Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here and we are going to start 2020 off with the Stronach Pick 5! Everyone has feelings in racing about the Stronach group, but in my opinion this wagering opportunity really is good for the average player. The pool size gets big and it’s not uncommon to get logical horses’ home and have a payout in the 4-figure range. With that being said; let’s get to the sequence. I like this sequence this week, because 3 of the legs are at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, tracks I follow more than the other Stronach properties.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8 3:50pm EST Claiming $5,000 4 YO & Up Fillies and Mares NW2L on Dirt
This race is about as low as we can get for older horses that hate winning. You may want to be spready here, as at first glance the race has about 7 horses that can be competitive. I will play 3,4,6,8 as A’s.
3 SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM- This horse, has been up and down since getting claimed and put in Wayne Potts barn. Last out Katie Davis found a good trip and was about to put the horse on the lead and just faded. I would expect a similar trip this time around. That race was a route, but the same conditions as today. If history tells us, this horse at a sprint has the speed to win in this company.
8 ARBUTUS- If we go back to the first dirt race on October 17th, ARBUTUS had good speed, and regressed several times from there. Last out started slow and sat too far back, without really having a great closing kick. I like the move to sprints as the horse has faded at the finish in every start this year. I don’t understand what took so long to get this horse to sprints by Timothy Vick, and that is a red flag, but in a situation like this, with a drop in company; probably have to use.
4 LADY ROZINA- Lightly raced horse in 2019 with only 4 starts for W. Robert Bailes. Kevin Gomez returns to the mount from December 15 when rallied inside for a gamely place. Another logical step forward for LADY ROZINA and the winner circle is obvious. Should note that every start in 2019 showed improvement from the previous start; that is a trend I like to see, especially with lightly raced horses. Plenty of upside here in such a low-level horse.
6 OYA- 2 Lifetime starts, with 1 win. This horse fits the condition but won’t for long. Obviously not being a career loser here, this horse could be a single for some, given that she has the highest upside. This will be the 3rd start since September so, no reason this horse doesn’t fire and fits well here. Last out Avery Whisman started quickly and went to the lead; would expect similar today. Will be curious to see how the apprentice getting weight handles the expected speed from SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM and keeps the horse ready to fire.
Gulfstream Park R9 4:28pm EST Allow $51,000 4 YO & UP Fillies and Mares on Turf
Just a little turf sprint here for the girls to get going. I have gone back and forth here if I want to be either narrow or buy the race. It appears the 3,4,7 are all on top of the field here, but 1,5,8 if run back to their career numbers can win. The 4 has a monster layoff she is coming from but, if can return to form, could be a good spot.
4 DREAMS ARE MADE- As said above, this horse is coming from a 159-day layoff, however, Mark Casse is hitting at a 15% clip after a layoff. If this Fillie can run back to that performance in July, she wins today. Normally a horse off this kind of layoff, I would avoid, but looking at the work pattern I see, 7 days, 6 days, 6 days, 7 days 8 days; can’t ask for a better pattern and the horse should be ready to go. Will be curious to see what the clocker reports say for this girl.
3 MISS MIAMI- Comes out after a win on December 6th and has been improving steadily in every start this year. Personally though, the move from Irad to Julien Leparoux here concerns me as Irad chose to go to the previously mentioned 4. This might come down to price and being the second leg of the sequence, perhaps we will be able to gauge what this horse is going to price at through probables to see if we want to include. Another step forward though and factors here.
7 PAYNTDEMBLUESAWAY- Jane Cibelli can’t seem to get this horse in a race, in the last 8 entries we have 4 scratches and 1 cancelled race. Horse has not run since Sept 29th and the workout pattern is suspect. This is a horse I’d probably include, because we do not know what we are going to get here. If she improves from last out, which was a career best type performance, she can win. Although I am not sure if she has it in her. Also, while not a huge move up today, she is coming from 16k Claimer for non-winners of 2.
1 TAYLOR’S IN ORBIT- Lightly raced this fall but if can run back like she did in June and July, the horse wins here. Luca Panici isn’t a household name and does not have the best ROI or STATS, but if you like speed figures, this horse is a must use. I like the progress the horse has made since going to Kendall Condie’s barn, and with another step forward today, can get us a good price at a 8/1 ML.
Golden Gate R3 3:49pm EST, Start Allow, $19,000 4 YO & UP Fillies and Mares Synth
A lil female sprint on synthetic in the middle of the sequence. I don’t want to be over thinking this one, as it feels logical, so hopefully I steer you in the right direction.
5- KIANA’S LOVE- Hose has the speed and a good early running style to win here. Couple of questions that I have- the layoff of 145 days is concerning but good work pattern and gets the apprentice jock aboard for a 7 lb allowance. Might seem too simple, and let’s be honest when that happens, it’s usually a bad thing, but last out at Del Mar in August would win this race. Finishing is another question I have; can the horse finish? last few times, faded pretty hard to miss the board, so hopefully getting in light helps.
2 STARZA- This horse seems to be getting into form well after the last 2 outings and could see a career best today. At a 6/1 ML, I am excited that this horse can sneak by some with the recent improvements. If anything, this horse has been consistent and should be near the board today
4 MORNING CYNN- Best effort was 5 starts ago, a game 2nd at Golden Gate, since then has been all over the place. Won the last out on a first start for Manual Badilla, so perhaps they figured this horse out. Juan Hernandez returns to the mount from that winning ride. Horse has been working well since that win and should be a MAJOR factor today- especially if KIANA’S LOVE doesn’t show up.
Gulfstream Park R10 5:00PM EST, Maiden Claiming $16,000 3 YO Fillies on Turf
Until we know the scratches, this race is going to be hard to get a handle on, but I will try my best. This field isn’t exactly filled with superstars, so I think this is a price type race and I like a couple of the also eligible today.
1 GABY’S DREAM- ML Favorite, but at 2/1 feels way too short here. She has been improving and I like that, but she has improved in every career start. Eventually I would expect the horse to have a bad outing, perhaps its today. Depending on your budget, you probably want to include this horse as a safety but could be a good spot to fade the favorite and find a price.
(AE) 13 RUTHYLA- Has shown she prefers turf but makes a change from sprints to route. Addition of blinkers and Jose Ortiz tells me Michael Maker has a game plan and horse should be ready to go. This is the 5th career start, so I think we will find out if this switch works. If it does, could be at a price.
(AE)15 LA FLAMENCA- Last out Jaramillo gave a career best ride for this filly, and now we see if the horse can continue to improve. I do not think that this horse is far and away the best, I mean she is 0-7 Lifetime, but considering the field, fits well.
10 SIGNING BONUS- Last out was first time on the turf and was entered and scratched as an MTO on December 27th. Horse ran well early in December on the turf and could be one in the mix depending what happens with scratches. I am not a big fan of Victor Lebron, and I think a bigger jock here would show better intentions, but like I said, it’s a tough race to cap ahead of time.
If you use workout reports or the like, this is going to be a race that you want to see what the clockers are telling you. These horses are barely running to par for this level of claimer at Gulfstream, so every week is a different story. Could be the hardest race to handicap this sequence.
Santa Anita R5 5:08PM EST, Claiming $25,000 4 YO & UP Fillies and Mares on Turf
Time to get paid- by now we have seen some good races, so what will pad our pockets. This could tough race or a very simple one. I am taking the approach to single here and look for the 8 to get me home.
9 POINT HOPE- A lot of money is going to be on this horse, and I am not sure how to handle it. Drayden gets the mount again, and the horse ran well with him aboard previously at Del Mar and Santa Anita. Horse has run its best after a layoff and then slowly regressed each start. In December ran at Golden Gate and ran a career poor performance, I might let this horse beat me at the price we will probably see here.
3 DIAMOND OF VALUE- Horse is going to a turf route for the first time. Don’t have much to go off of, except back in June of 2018, horse ran decently on the turf at 6.5F. At 8-1 will I be curious to see; overall I wonder if the horse is fast enough.
8 INVINCIBELLA- Tyler Baze gets the mount for the third time. I like that there was no change, and Tyler knows the horse. She is going to get some class relief here which should help, on turf, this horse has been consistent with its performances and with the relief, could be a simple winner.
4 TINNIE- I have to talk about the Mandella entry with Prat aboard. Horse was a first-time winner last out at Golden Gate and returns to Santa Anita now where she couldn’t get it done. Leaves the maiden ranks and could fit here. Even the previous outings with Flavien aboard, could be enough today if the horse gets the trip.
My Play
Here is my ticket for today depending on scratches and changes. This is if the AE’s draw in the 4th leg. This ticket costs $81.
3,4,6
4,3,1
5,2,4
10,13,15
8
Here is my ticket for today depending if the 4th leg has no AE’s draw in. You’ll see it is a considerable change in the 4th and 5th legs. It still keeps the cost structure down. This ticket costs $108, and still gives good coverage early and maximizes some opinions late.
3,4,6
4,3,1
5,2,4
10,1
8,4
Something like this depending how the sequence goes, $100 is a solid ticket I think and allows for it to pay a decent return given the pool size. Not too often will you see a Stronach Pick 5 pay $100, so keep that in mind, this is not your normal 1 track pool size.
Overall a very playable sequence at what could be a very affordable ticket! Good luck!