Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski returning here for another Stronach Pick 5!! For the 4 weeks I have done this we are 1:4 but +$836! Have gone 4:5, 3:5, 4:5, 5:5 We really can’t complain how this is going!!! I am writing from 40,000 feet as I fly to Vegas for the NHC 2020! I might be a might premature with some of the angles but, if you do the work, this sequence seems almost too logical considering. I see the forecast is for some wet weather on Friday, so keep that in mind as we move forward.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8 3:50PM EST Maiden Claiming $40k 6F on Dirt
This is a tough race, I feel like I should spread wide and hope for the best but- lets have some fun!
8 ABUELO PAPS- Horse comes in off the layoff, which normally could be concerning at this level, but the horse has had a good workout pattern and I would think is ready for today. Marco Salazar has been good off a layoff in limited action at 2/14 but a solid 1.63 ROI.
7 GOLAZO- So horse made debut in December and looked pretty good for this level- Katie Davis had the mount in that effort and think should be lively here. Hugh McMahon is hitting 3/16 on 2nd time starters and worth a look here I think.
1 DESHACKLED- This horse has taken awhile to find its way but now as a 3 year old on his 4th start as a gelding, this horse is going to run. This is the type of horse that makes a career out of Laurel and does well. Showed some decent speed, and if improves a bit more will be an interesting horse. As of right now I see Trevor McCarthy on the mount so adjust as needed.
Santa Anita R1 4:00PM EST MSW $55k, 5.5 F On Turf
Big field of first-time starters here so a tough one to handicap as the opening leg of the sequence. From the first timers I think 1 peaks my interest.
3 AUSTIN’S BOY- Turf races and Umberto Rispoli are synonymous. Since bursting on the scene he’s been profitable and tearing up California. Now he comes on this gelding, who has the pedigree to win here. Think the horse is well spotted for his 2nd start.
5 ZERO DOWN- I don’t want to like this horse but we have to cover here. Doug O’Neill has the horse and it’s the 4th career start. Layoff pattern is weird but now we get the 3-year-old. Perhaps the connections were hoping for something in the fall and were sadly disappointed. Tried turf last out for the first time and took to it decently, was just overmatched. Pedigree suggests the turf may work well. Given this horses history I am afraid he gets too far back and it could be bad.
6 SQUALOTORO- So Mike Puype is 5/23 for first time starters but for a resounding 2.20 ROI. This horse may fetch a price and I like Jose Valdivia Jr. on the mount. I follow him at Arlington and before he came to the Midwest, he was a mid-jock. He is approaching a higher tier in my opinion. This gelding is from Clubhouse ride who is 3/18 with firsters so worth a sanity hedge here I believe.
Gulfstream Park R8 04:33pm EST Allowance OC, $25k Fillies and Mares 8.5F on Dirt
This looks like a pretty good race on paper, I believe but We should be able to be pretty narrow here, and save some money for the other legs.
7 ROYAL FLAG- Chad is not exactly money Brown on the dirt but this horse seems well intended and pedigreed well. In 2 lifetime starts she has been solid with good rides improving each time. Comes in now with 45 days off and Irad on the mount. I imagine this horse will be short but rightfully so.
1 BO’S IMAGE- At first glance this horse seems like 3rd or 4th choice but with the limited starts, and how Michael Matz horses do from the layoff, with Jose Ortiz aboard, this seems like a must include if you don’t single. Horse could be a need to lead type but limited history to tell us. Jose should be able to rate this horse and has the pedigree for this distance.
6 REMARKABLE SOUL- The layoff here could scare but Ralph Nicks hits at 19% after a layoff for a 1.05 ROI- not shabby considering. If horse steps forward as a 4-year-old should, expect this horse to be well place and intended. Nice workout pattern here, but if you can wait until Friday, I think the workout report might give better info than the breezes tell us.
Golden Gate R3 3:45pm EST Claiming $5k 8F on Synthetic
2 KONA COAST- Hey look who it is, Jonathan Wong at Golden Gate- who am I to fade this guy. This gelding ran great back in April 2019, now I think could be rounding back. Last out was a route and seems the horse liked it. Out of Eskendereya, does not surprise me that route distance is preferred.
7 ASKIN’ FOR TROUBLE- I want to like this horse, I do, but seems like last out was a step back and only 30 days ago and now come back at a price drop- are we seeing them get rid of the horse? I don’t know. I will include 1 more time and let the horse disappoint me based on previous efforts.
6 TYPHOON HARRY- So if we excuse last out for the layoff, the horse is coming in with an apprentice so the weight allowance will help, but horse was running good in November. I think this horse needed the last, gets us a good price and considering could be value play.
Gulfstream Park R10 05:33pm EST Claiming $8k, 8F on Dirt
9 FRENCH QUARTER- Heavily raced horse who won a decent amount last year to consider this a class drop. Always scary playing a 9-year-old gelding, especially first off the claim for Gary Jackson, but horse has the speed to win. We need Marcos Meneses to ride well as he has been and get this horse in a good spot to win.
7 CHIRPING- I have learned that a Saffie Joseph horse with Paco Lopez aboard at Gulfstream is a must include. Downside here is , horse will probably sit back in a pressing position. With Paco this is sometimes a recipe for disaster- if he can sit and wait this race is all his.
10 SMOKE ‘N’ GLOAT- This horse is probably the leader at the ½ of a decent pace- I just question if Jose Ortiz can get this horse home first. This might be a little long as it looks like in the last 18 months horse has only won once at 8 Furlongs. Granted he was running at Hawthorne and Arlington and now gets a jock upgrade.
My Play
I am going to keep this sequence small, only because it feels so logical. With that said, it probably means bombs come in all day! Right now, I am looking at $36 for the sequence
R1- 1,7,8
R2- 3,5,6
R3-7
R4-2,6
R5-7,9
If I was to add or take a different approach, its either to add in R3 to the 7 single with the 1 and 6 for $108 or to toss the 7 and play the 1,6 for $72. Good luck this week!