Woodbine Race 8: The Grade 3 Seaway, Fillies and Mares, 7 Furlongs, Synthetic:
A field of eight, four year old fillies, sprint seven furlongs. There’s a nice mix of horses stretching out, cutting back, and switching surfaces here to make this a challenging puzzle to put together.
1. Gamble’s Candy: Josie Carroll trains this daughter of Twirling Candy as she makes her third start of the season. She comes back to synthetic after never picking up her feet on the grass last out. She showed last year that she can run a bit, and I think she’ll run better and get a decent trip. I’d like her more though if this race was at 6 or 6 and 1/2 Furlongs. Still, she’s not the craziest 20-1 longshot.
2. Souper Escape: She stays on synthetic after running a monster race to win the Grade 3 Trillium here last month. Trombetta’s kept her up North, as she is a much better filly on synthetics than grass. She’s cutting back to 7 Furlongs though, and her two turn races are stronger than her one turn efforts. I’m not sure I’m willing to take a short price with distance and bounce concerns.
3. Miss Mosaic: She exits a second place finish on the grass at Indiana Grand against much softer. This feels like an awfully ambitious spot for her today while tackling a new surface and running in a one turn race for the first time in her career.
4. Another Time: She got off to a strong start this year, beating Souper Escape in a Turf Allowance and just missing in the Grade 2 Nassau, also on the lawn. She didn’t break cleanly last out and couldn’t go with Souper Escape in the Trillium. She’s never been off the board on the synthetic and I think the 7 Furlong trip works to her advantage. She’s a got a chance here.
5. Painting: She also had a bit of trouble at the break last out in the Trillium. She has picked up right where’s she left off last year, and she too, figures to benefit from cutting back in distance. My only knock on her is that she’s been second twice as many times as she’s won. She’s still a contender though.
6. Sister Peacock: She is the most likely pacesetter in this race, and she’s got some decent races in her form. I think the presence of Gamble’s Candy may hurt her chances of stealing this one on the front end. She too probably would stand a better chance if this race was a little shorter.
7. Charmaine’s Mia: She was flying late in the Royal North on the grass last time when she finished a close up 4th. She’s one that would prefer this race to be on the grass, as I think a 7 Furlong turf race would suit her well. I think she comes up a bit short here though.
8. Amalfi Coast: She really improved last fall, winning her last three races last year, including a monster performance in the Grade 2 Bessarabian here at this distance. She’s third off the layoff and she looks like she’s rounding back in to her best form. She’s my top choice today.
My Picks: 8-5-4
Saratoga Race 9: The Saratoga Oaks, 3yo Fillies, 1 Mile 3/16 Turf:
Seven three year old fillies compete, including the top 4 finishers from the Lake Placid, the winner of the Appalachian at Keeneland, the third place finisher in the CCA Oaks, and a European import. Interesting to note that Chad Brown isn’t sending a filly out here.
1. Speaktomeofsummer: She rebounded nicely after a dull 3yo debut to win the Lake Placid last time out. She seemed to relish the added distance last out and Clement’s horses have been firing all meet long. She encountered trouble and still fired a big race. I think she has a big shot again today.
2. Enola Gay: She made her 3yo debut in the Appalachian last out at Keeneland, and beat a solid field with a strong surge at the end. She adds an extra 3/16 of a mile to her journey today and she’s the morning line favorite today. She could continue to move forward, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her bounce a bit.
3. Antoinette: Bill Mott seems to be struggling to figure out what this filly is going to do best. She’s been third in her last four starts in a variety of stakes, including the Wonder Again on grass. She’s steady, but she hasn’t really progressed to beat a field like this.
4. Stunning Sky: Maker brings her back after just getting nipped in the Lake Placid after making the lead in the stretch. She’s improved nicely and showed she can be comfortable sitting a little closer to the pace. She should fire another decent effort again today.
5. Key Biscayne: She stepped up in class and responded with a strong effort to be a close fourth in the Lake Placid. She has certainly earned a shot to be here, but I think the bottom of the exotics would be the best case scenario for her.
6. Ricetta: Juddmonte sends out an intriguing homebred that has shown some ability overseas. They clearly think her style will translate to American turf racing as they send her from John Gosden to Bill Mott. This field is decent, but certainly could be stronger, and there’s a lot of money available for three year old fillies that can run on the grass in the States. I’d give her a long look today.
7. Queen’s Embrace: She’s been ultra-consistent this year, winning 5 of 7 starts and finishing third in the other two. Her last two have been solid, but she’ll need to improve more to be a factor here.