Four turf stakes on the card at Woodbine, including the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.
Race 3: The Ontario Racing 2yo, 5 Furlongs, Turf:
1. Souper Classy: He won for fun when debuting in an optional maiden claiming race that was taken off the turf last month. He’s likely committed to going for the lead while breaking from the rail in here. He’s not impossible, but I like others better.
2. Credit River: He debuts in a tough for a trainer who has won with her only first time starter she’s trained in the last two years. There’s nothing in his drills that suggest he’s faster than these.
3. Sky’s Not Falling: He was beaten seven lengths by a flashy Wesley Ward colt in the Skidmore at the Spa last out. That was his first start on turf and his third overall, so there’s reason to believe he can move forward off his last. He may benefit from a hot early pace.
4. Amsden: He debuted professionally at Colonial, handily beating two next out winners. Wesley Ward trains this well bred son of American Pharoah, who will likely be in the early vanguard. He could be any kind, and will likely be bet that way.
5. Ready To Repeat: He makes his fifth career start, winning two of his first four, including a stakes win on synthetic. He cuts back to five furlongs after a good effort at 6 and 1/2 last out. That extra foundation should do him well in the stretch here.
6. Too Legit: He won his debut easily in an optional maiden claiming race, but regressed while trying stakes company. He tries the grass for the first time, but doesn’t offer much appeal here.
7. Quick Tempo: He was quick indeed, winning his debut at 4 and 1/2 furlongs at Arlington last out. He also moves to the grass for the first time and should benefit from the outside draw. I’m not sure he’s ready to fend off some of these.
My Picks: 5-4-3
Race 7: The Grade 3 Singspiel, 1 Mile and 1/4, Turf:
1. Say The Word: He’s one of two Sam-Son Farms homebreds in this field. He had a productive start to 2019 before going off form. However, he woke up in a big way, beating a strong optional claiming allowance field at Saratoga at 51-1 last time out. He’ll need to probably be a little better this time to beat these, which at this point in his career is a tall order.
2. Sir Sahib: He may have peaked in this race last year when it was run at 12 Furlongs. His three races this year don’t look like races that would be competitive at the grades stakes level. He’d be a surprise.
3. Admiralty Pier: He’s cross entered in the Woodbine Mile, and it would be a bit of a surprise to see him in this race, as he’s never raced longer than 8.5 Furlongs. His pedigree suggests the added distance shouldn’t be a problem, and he’s run well against better fields. I’d be comfortable taking a chance on him at 5-1 or better.
4. Standard Deviation: His last at Monmouth was perplexing to me as he seemed primed to have a big four year old campaign. If he’s able to run back to his better form, he’ll be very dangerous here. I think the distance and the course here will be to his liking.
5. Skywire: Last year’s beaten favorite in the Queen’s Plate continues to make progress in his four year old campaign. He’s run well on the Tapeta here, but he’ll have to answer questions about surface and distance. He’s been off the board in both turf tries and all three races at 9 Furlongs or longer.
6. Woodbridge: He ran his best career race in optional claiming allowance company on this course at this distance, however, he’ll need to improve about 8-10 lengths to contend here and that seems highly unlikely.
7. Tiz A Slam: He was really good last year, winning three consecutive graded stakes races at 12 furlongs on the grass. He’s won half his starts on this course. He hasn’t looked as good in two starts this year, so it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost a step. He’s still dangerous, but I’m trying to beat him.
8. Count Again: He’s a lightly raced five year old who just missed behind Woodbridge last out. He has more upside than that one, but I haven’t seen evidence that he’s capable of taking that big of a jump forward.
9. Nakamura: Graham Motion’s second horse in this race was within 2 lengths of Zulu Alpha in his seasonal debut at Keeneland. He struggled to close on a course that was kind to front end runners last out at Saratoga. I think he’ll move forward while cutting back to 10 furlongs, but he’s yet to prove he can win a graded stakes.
10. Jungle Fighter: He was improving with each start last year in his three year old season. He makes his third start of the season, and should benefit from staying on the grass. He has tactical speed to sit a good trip from his outside post. He’ll need to step up, but I think he has a live look, at least in the exotics here.
My Picks: 4-10-9
Race 9: The G1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile, 1 Mile, Turf:
1. March To The Arch: He looked real good winning the local prep for this race last month, however, he fit very well in that field where there were a few stretch out sprinters and a few that run better on synthetic in that group. He’s won both starts on this course, but it’s interesting to see that Rafael Hernandez hops off him to ride War of Will. He still needs to be considered.
2. Armistice Day: He looked to be an interesting three year old early on last year, but he’s never really progressed. He cuts back in distance, but it could be argued that grass is his third best surface. He’s not for me.
3. Shirl’s Spight: He has two impressive wins in two career starts, and he looked so good, his connections had Derby dreams. A minor hiccup crushed that hope, but he’s back taking a big swing, facing older horses in Grade 1 company. As a fan, it would be great to see him win, but as a handicapper, it seems like it’s too much too soon.
4. Starship Jubilee: She won the Grade 1 EP Taylor here last year and certainly made her presence known two starts ago when she defeated Sistercharlie at the Spa. She was flat most recently against Rushing Fall in the Diana. Her connections keep challenging this 6 year old mare. The distance is a bit of a concern, but she loves racing here and is not without a chance.
5. Olympic Runner: He’s one of three that Mark Casse sends out here. He’s an improving four year old, but his best races are sprints. The one turn mile might be just past the edge of his range.
6. Admiralty Pier: He had a pretty easy lead in the Prince Edward last out, but couldn’t hang with March To The Arch in the final furlong. There’s more early pace pressure in this spot and better competitors coming late. He might have a better shot in the Singspiel.
7. Value Proposition: Chad Brown brings this four year old up North after finishing third in an oddly run edition of the Poker. He sat on the bench while four stablemates finished off the board in the Fourstardave last month. He seems to be more comfortable sitting back and making one run, and he should have that chance today, especially if Admiralty Pier stays in this race. I’m expecting a better effort today.
8. War of Will: He danced every dance in the three year dirt division last year, highlighted by a win in the Preakness. He added a Grade 1 turf win to his trophy case last time, winning the Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland. I think one mile on the grass is his sweet spot. He can create his own trip and looks like he’s clearly the one to beat.
My Picks: 8-7-4
Race 10: The Woodbine Cares, 2yoF, 5 Furlongs, Turf:
1. Souper Mamba: She won her debut against optional maiden claiming foes, then has not run a step in her next two starts, both in stakes company. She switches to turf, but really should be seeking class relief.
2. Dirty Dangle: She won her debut, beating next out winner Souper Munnings, who also shows up here. She moves to turf after winning on synthetic. She’s a candidate to improve.
3. Forest Drift: She’s another one who won first asking, beat maiden allowance foes at 6 furlongs on synthetic. She too, moves to the grass, but I’m not crazy about the cutback in distance for her.
4. Chatelet: She ships north after just getting caught in the final strides in her debut at Colonial. Delacour’s horses usually improve considerably in their second starts. He obviously has confidence in this filly to put her here instead of a maiden special weight race.
5. Souper Munnings: She just missed in her debut and just held on in start number two. Live Oak paid $350,000 for this filly, so there are expectations. She’s paired her first two Beyers, so you could argue she’s ready to take a step forward. I don’t love the cutback, but she’s the only one in her that’s shown an ability to close. She might be able to run them all down.
6. Rocket Reload: She’s the only filly in the field with a win on the grass, but that came in a maiden optional claiming race. Like most of these, she did it one dimensionally, on the front end. I think some of the others are faster.
7. Illegal Smile: She’s another maiden in here, but she’s run big in tougher races, including the Catch A Glimpse on the outer course here. She cuts back and stays with stakes foes for Wesley Ward. She’ll be tough in here.
My Picks: 5-4-7