This is the first of five graded stakes at Belmont for their last “big” race day of the Spring/Summer Meet. Five three year old filly sprinters face off early in the card here.
1.) Frank’s Rockette: As a two year old, she followed up a strong debut with three consecutive second place finishes in the Adirondack, Spinaway, and Frizette. At three, she has become more decisive on the front end, losing only to the talented filly, Kimari, in the slop at Oaklawn. She is much quicker than her four rivals early on, which should give her a pretty strong advantage. Factor in that she is the classiest and most accomplished filly in the race, and she seems like a pretty logical single. As much as I’d like to try to beat her, I don’t see anyone doing so.
2.) Up In Smoke: She is undefeated as a sprinter, losing only one time in her career facing stakes foes in the two turn Hollywood Wildcat Stakes. She took a big step forward, while cutting back to a sprint in the Game Face, last time out at Gulfstream. Getting Irad Ortiz to ride her in her local debut doesn’t hurt either. I think she’s up against it from a pace standpoint, but if someone unexpectedly pushes Frank’s Rockette too hard, she would be the most likely one to pick up the pieces.
3.) Reagan’s Edge: She closed well to beat allowance foes at 5 and ½ Furlongs last out at Churchill. She has improved steadily in her three career starts and has definitely earned the right to compete at this level. I fear that this is a big step up in class though, as I’m not sure how much deep that field was in her last race once it came off the turf.
4.) Center Aisle: She was bred to be a good one, and her $1.5 million dollar price tag certainly supports that. I really didn’t like her last race at Churchill, when she was beaten by a nice filly in Casual. She was slow into stride, never really settled, then was still pretty green down the stretch. I would prefer to see her take another crack at allowance foes, but I guess when you pay that much for a horse, you might not be afforded that luxury. There’s no doubt that she could be really good and beat this field by open lengths, but I don’t think that is the likely outcome and I don’t think you’ll get proper value on that wager.
5.) Miss Peppina: The last time she faced Frank’s Rockette, she was about six lengths behind her. Since then, she has only one start, which came on the grass, while Frank’s Rockette has run four times on the dirt, facing significantly more talented fillies. It’s hard to imagine she has done enough to catch up to that one at this point in her career.
My Picks: 1-2-3
Belmont 7/4/2020. Race 10 – The Manhattan G1
With no Arlington Million this year, I believe this is the only Grade 1 at 10 Furlongs on the turf for colts and geldings in North America. This is an intriguing eight horse field where you can make a case for many of these.
1.) Instilled Regard: He won the Fort Marcy on this course last month and is back for more today. He has more tactical early speed than the majority of his competitors, which should be an advantage in this race. My main concern with him is that I’m not completely convinced he wants to go 10 Furlongs. He was a little flat in the last 1/16 of a mile in the Pegasus Turf and Devamani was gaining on him late last time out. I’m looking to beat this morning line favorite today.
2.) Rockemperor: He joined the Chad Brown barn last summer, coming from Europe, and competed well in the Belmont Derby at this distance, despite breaking from Post 14. I like both of his efforts this year, including a heartbreaking defeat in California in the Whittingham, where he closed into a hopelessly slow pace. I think he has the most upside of any in here and is live today. He may offer the best value of the trio sent out by Brown.
3.) Cross Border: He should be your pacesetter in this race as no one else seems to have any real early speed. He has steadily improved since joining the Maker barn, running a decent 5th in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic here in October, despite running into to trouble on the first turn. Jose Ortiz has ridden him wisely before and has to be thinking about trying to steal this one on the front end. If he gets overlooked, and his odds shoot up over the 10-1 morning line, I can’t fault anyone for taking a chance on him.
4.) Sadler’s Joy: He has been a mainstay in this division since 2017. He was third in this race in 2017 and he lost a tough photo to be second in this race in 2018. I think he’s sitting on a big race while cutting back to 10 Furlongs. My concern is that he has a bunch of trouble lines in his career that have kept him out of the Winner’s Circle when he was probably the best horse. I’m hoping for odds that are slightly better than his 7-2 morning line.
5.) Devamani: He is a six year old gelding from the Chad Brown barn. He has raced two times for Brown and has just missed in both races, despite solid efforts. I think the 10 Furlong distance shouldn’t be a problem for this son of Dubawi. He closed well in the Fort Marcy when the pace was a little sharper than expected. He was ignored in the betting last out, going off at 9-1. He’s worth using if his odds float up over his 9-2 morning line.
6.) Channel Maker: Like Sadler’s Joy, he’s been a familiar face in this division for quite a while now. He’s the only multiple Grade 1 winner in the field. That being said, his current form suggests that he’s not going to be competitive here unless he’s able to turn things around. He’s not for me.
7.) Dot Matrix: He exits the Tiller here last month at 11 Furlongs and was a solid second behind upset winner, Paret. If you draw a line through his Fair Grounds race, which ended at the break, he’s strung together a bunch of credible performances. This is a big step up in class for him though. I suspect he’ll be a little short.
8.) Spooky Channel: He was the upset winner of a contentious allowance race at Churchill in May last time out. He opted for this spot instead of the Wise Dan at Churchill two weeks ago. His pedigree suggests the 10 Furlongs shouldn’t be an issue, but he has struggled to put two big efforts together in the past. I think he’ll be overmatched in this field.
My Picks: 2-4-3
Belmont Park – 7/4/2020 – The Suburban G2
The finale for the day is for older horses going 10 Furlongs on the main track here. Tough luck Tacitus is the morning line favorite in this field of eight.
1.) Tacitus: Last year’s Wood Memorial winner has not made it to the Winner’s Circle since. Bad starts, tough trips, and questionable rides have all factored into his losing streak. This is the softest field that he has faced in a while, but I’m not certain that he really wants to go 10 Furlongs, as he looked a bit leg weary in the stretch of both the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup last year. He’s never an easy horse to accept a short price on, but I think I have to include him in the exotics.
2.) Parsimony: His best career race was two back while winning a 10 Furlong stakes race in Dubai in February. He came back to the States and was thoroughly trounced in the Hollywood Gold Cup. We’ve seen Doug O’Neill take big shots before and occasionally they pay off. He is not as bad as his last race suggests, but it would be an absolute shock if he came to New York and took this race down.
3.) Forewarned: He’s another longshot who, most recently, snuck into third while beaten six lengths by Code of Honor and Endorsed in the Westchester last out. The 10 Furlongs should suit him well, as he ran well at the distance last year, handily beating fellow Ohio breds in state bred stakes company at Mahoning Valley. He doesn’t appear fast enough to win, but wouldn’t be the worst horse to toss into the bottom of a trifecta.
4.) Mr. Buff: Prior to New York racing shutting down this spring, he was in great form at Aqueduct, winning three stakes races (2 NY Bred and 1 open) by a combined total of 32.5 lengths, earning triple digit Beyer figures each time. In his return, at a flat mile, he chased a solid pace and lumbered home to be second. He stretches out to 10 Furlongs for the first time in his career, which, looking at his pedigree, may be further than he wants to go. He has not run his best races in graded stakes company before. He, too, is tough to take a short price on.
5.) Joevia: He may be best known for finishing third in the Belmont Stakes last year behind Sir Winston, who he faces again today. After that race, he wasn’t seen again until January, when he looked good winning an Optional Claiming/Allowance race at Aqueduct. His last three tries against stakes foes have been rough, losing by double digit lengths in each one. Early speed is his game and there’s a better speed horse directly to his inside. I’ll pass on him today.
6.) Sir Winston: Last year’s Belmont winner returns to the site of his greatest triumph. I think he gets a favorable pace set up today as there are a few horses in here with early speed that don’t seem to want to go 10 Furlongs. He was second in the slop last out in the 11 Furlong Flat Out last month. I think he moves up on a dry track and has a very big shot today.
7.) Just Whistle: This five year old has had some gaps in his races, suggesting he’s had trouble staying completely healthy. His last race in the Sunday Silence Stakes in the slop at Gulfstream was his best ever. Irad Ortiz takes the mount, which means something, as he’s won a staggering 31% of his races at this meet. He’ll need to improve off his last race again to beat these. He may be worth a chance if his odds creep up over his 8-1 morning line.
8.) Moretti: This well-bred, four year old son of Medaglia d’Oro won the Flat Out here last month. He had everything his own way that day, breaking near the inside, assuming command early in the slop, and setting slow fractions before drawing off to win by over 5 lengths. Two starts back, he sat off a hot pace at Oaklawn and beat allowance foes while coming from behind. I respect his versatility, but he needs to prove he can put up a bigger Beyer number while racing on a fast track. He’s listed at 5-1, but I think he’ll go off closer to 7-2 or 4-1. I’m not expecting to get great value on him.
My Picks: 6-1-7