Belmont 6/6/2020 – Race 6 – The Fort Marcy
This is a solid Grade 2 turf field here and the first of 4 consecutive graded stakes at Belmont today. They’ll travel 9 Furlongs on the Inner Turf Course.
1. Temple: This four year old always shows up. He gradually improves with each race and has a recency edge over many of these. He might need to improve a little more to beat a field of this caliber.
2. Gucci Factor: He is a lightly raced seven year old who has finished first in half of his 16 career starts. He flew home last summer to winner the G3 Poker in this course. He can fire fresh and loves racing at Belmont. One of many with a fighting chance.
3. Somelikeithotbrown: This NY Bred has run his last nine races against open company. He has been a bit inconsistent at times, but he finds himself in a paceless race and his best efforts have been on the front end. I think he likes this distance and has a real shot to steal this at a decent number.
4. Flop Shot: He joins the Chad Brown barn after a recording a decent 3 year old campaign In France. He’s one of four from the Brown barn in here, and if his odds float up above his 6-1, he would be worth a shot.
5. Instilled Regard: In 2018, he came within 4.5 lengths of Justify in the Derby. Afterwards, he moved to the Chad Brown barn and has progressed nicely, while focusing primarily on turf racing. He won the G2 Fort Lauderdale in December and was third in the G1 Pegasus Turf in January. His Fair Grounds effort was a regression, which I can forgive, as shippers sometimes struggle there. I’m expecting a better effort today.
6. Synchrony: This seven year old Tapit horse could eclipse $1 Million in lifetime earnings with a win here. He’s another horse that usually puts in a solid effort every time. His best efforts are when he closes into a fast pace though, and I’m not sure he’s going to get that set up here.
7. Devamani: He has run many credible races in optional claiming/allowance races. He moved to graded stakes company and just missed in the G3 Tampa Bay Stakes. I think this a deeper field and he’s another who could be pace compromised.
8. Social Paranoia: Here’s yet another horse who always shows up on race day. His last two starts have been very good at Gulfstream. He lost to Halladay last out, when that one had an uncontested lead on the front end. I suspect Franco will have him a bit closer to the pace today. I’m expecting him to be right there at the end.
9. Tribhuvan: The fourth horse scheduled to race from the Chad Brown barn has one North American start on record, where he was a closing third. He wasn’t facing great fields in Europe and I would’ve liked to have seen more last out before endorsing him today.
Selections 3-8-5
Belmont Race 8 – 6/6/2020 – The Intercontinental
This is one of a handful of graded stakes offerings at 7 Furlongs on the grass in North America. The unusual distance of this race makes this quite a handicapping puzzle each year.
1. Viadera: This is the first of 4 Chad Brown horses set to make their first start in 2020. This Juddmonte homebred makes her first start in the US. She wasn’t facing top level competition overseas and I think she’s better at the flat mile. I’ll watch this one.
2. Victim of Love: This is a pretty tough spot for this Speightstown filly to make her turf debut. Her race in the Barbara Fritchie two back was strong enough to contend with these if this race comes off the grass. However, if they stay on the lawn, I won’t be using her on my tickets.
3. Eyeinthesky: She was a troubled third in her most recent start in a turf sprint at The Fair Grounds. All of her recent starts beyond 5.5 Furlongs are lackluster at best. If she can’t take a big step forward from those efforts, she’ll be off the board.
4. Slimey: She’s a MTO entrant, who figures to get bet in a small field if this race comes off, but she is still a cut below Victim I’d Love and Jakarta.
5. Newspaperofrecord: Will we see the 2018 version of this filly or the 2019 version? She looked like a different horse last year, and not in a good way. She could very well run this field off their feet, but I think there’s a greater chance that’s she not the same horse as she was at 2. There’s also likely little value to had betting her. I’d use if spreading vertically, but I will try to beat her in the horizontal wagers.
6: Jakarta: She’s an interesting horse in this race. She likes to win, as she’s 6 for 11 in her career, and coming off two straight since joining Maker’s barn. She could be lone speed in this race, as she was fast enough to go gate to wire at 5 Furlongs on the grass two back. She won the Powder Break last out when it came off the grass, while stretching out. I think the closers are better horses, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one hit the board at a decent price.
7 Regal Glory: She ripped off three straight wins in stakes company before running a flat 6th in the QEII at Keeneland last year. She closed well in her first two career starts while sprinting, so I don’t think the tricky 7 Furlong distance will hinder her. She has a solid chance in this one.
8 Getmotherarose: She was a surprise winner of the Honey Fox at 11-1. The second and third place finishers of that race came back to win in their next starts. Her last was a bit of a bounce as she encountered trouble. She might have an outside shot, but I’m inclined to think she’d prefer a two turn race.
9 Rose Flower: This German bred filly came here last year and had three decent efforts to finish off her three year old campaign. She is a winner on the course at the distance. I think she’ll move up on a firm course and could get in to the exotics late.
10. Jc’s Shooting Star: She has been a productive 8 year old mare, winning over $400k on dirt and over $300k on turf. However, she’s drawn a tough field to make her seasonal debut. She’s tough for me to endorse here.
11. Saratoga Treasure: She was open lengths winner of the Autumn Days Stakes at Aqueduct in her last start. She’s been away for 6 months and showed last year that she might need a few races to round into her best form.
12. Significant Form: Chad Brown’s 4th horse in here won this race last year. She has fired fresh before and figures to get a good trip from her outside draw. At 3, she struggled to win in graded stakes company, but she won 3 of 5 of those races last year. She’s the most likely winner in my eyes.
My picks: 12-6-7