9/27/2020, Race 4, The G2 Zenyatta, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16
Only four fillies face off in Southern California’s prep for the Breeder’s Cup Distaff.
1. Fighting Mad: She was brought along as sprinter, but she has blossomed in two turn races. She’s 3-3 at two turns, winning Grade 3, 2, and 1 races, respectively. She has a decided pace advantage over the other three fillies. At 2-5, she’ll offer no value, but she is the most likely winner.
2. Proud Emma: She earned the right to race here after beating lesser foes in the Tranquility Lake at Del Mar last time out. However she’s never been close while facing graded stakes foes, and she’s be hard pressed to do better than third here.
3. Harvest Moon: The lone three year old of the bunch does have a fighting chance in this spot. She won the Torrey Pines last out (a race won by Fighting Mad last year). She’s won three in a row and is undefeated on dirt. G need to take a step up, but she’s definitely eligible to improve again.
5. Hard Not To Love: She’s better than her last effort, which was a dud at Del Mar in the Clement Hirsch. She’s a Grade 1 winner at 7 Furlongs, which I feel might be her best distance. There aren’t a ton of sprint options out west and the distaff division isn’t very deep out here. I don’t see her winning today.
My Picks: 1-3-5
9/27/2020, Race 8, The G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, 6 Furlongs.
Another short field for another local Breeders Cup prep race. There’s a surprising lack of speed for a 6 Furlong dirt contest.
1. Collusion Illusion: His only loss came in his only career start at two turns, in the American Pharoah last year. He was last seen at Del Mar, beating older horses in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. He’s versatile enough to win near the front end or come from off the pace. His figures are a little light, but he knows how to win and is certainly capable of moving forward again.
2. Desert Law: This six year old may inherit the early lead here. He was in very good form last year before going on the shelf after just missing in the Bing Crosby. His three starts this year have not been up to snuff, by his standards, but his last encouraging enough to think he could come back with a better effort today.
3. Flagstaff: He runs a solid race just about every time he runs. He just missed, beaten by CZ Rocket in the Triple Bend in his last start. My issue with him is that he’s pretty much at his ceiling. If others don’t run their race, he’ll be there to pick up the pieces. He likes this course and figures to be close.
4. CZ Rocket: What a claim he’s been for Peter Miller, who paid $40k for him at Oaklawn in April. He rewarded his new connections for four straight wins, topped by a score in the Triple Bend last out. Saez takes the mount today as Frat ends up on Collusion Illusion. I think he could end up with a wide trip, which may not be advantageous in an evenly matched race.
5. Giant Expectations: He’s seen better days for sure, as you have to go back to December 2017 to find the last time he’s had his picture taken. He was finding top form again last year, until an injury slowed him up. His return to the races was uninspiring, and I’m left to wonder if his better days are in the rear view mirror.
My Picks: 1-3-2
9/27/2020, Race 10: The Grade 3 Tokyo City Cup, 1 Mile and 1/2.
This is a rare, 12 furlong, graded stakes opportunity on dirt for three year olds and up. No one has run this far before, so this has the feeling of a race where anything’s possible. In the multi race bets, I’d be looking for the all button here, and hope to be able to pare down my tickets in other spots.
1. Cupid’s Claws: He’s never run on dirt, and looks to this spot for his first try. He’s been popular in the claim box, starting for his fourth barn in as many starts. His protected in this spot, but is in uncharted territory. He’s a big question mark if he goes.
2. Combatant: He showed that he runs well at longer distances when he was the upset winner of the Big Cap in March. His next three starts have left something to be desired though. This is a drop in class for him and it’s not unreasonable to think the distance might wake him up a bit.
3. Tizamagician: He’s one of two three year olds taking a swing in this spot. This is a much longer trip than he’s ever gone, which raises concern to be about his 2-1 morning line. He should be able to go further than a mile, as per his pedigree, but I’m not convinced he’ll want the full distance.
4. Bold Endeavor: StableDuel players might want to take a flyer on him as he’s 20-1 on the morning line. I don’t see that big of a gap between him and the others here. He’s last four starts on this track and have been competitive. The distance will be a question mark, but on pedigree, he’s bred to run all day.
5. Muralist: He’s won his last two starts on dirt, but that was in maiden special an optional claiming/allowance company at Pleasanton. His Beyers are might and others look more enticing.
6. Potantico: I’m not sure if son that has Smoke Glacken as a dam sire, is screaming out for a 12 Furlong marathon type race, but here we are. He’s in better form than most, but I’m struggling to see him thrive with the long trip.
7. Azul Coast: He’s the other three year the old lookin at this spot. Baffert trans, so the ability is likely there. He was rushed into the Santa Anita Derby and ran like it, as he finished off the board that day. Toss his last on the grass and he fits here.
My Picks: 4-2-7