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Del Mar, 11/28/2020, Race 9: The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, 1 Mile and 1/8, Turf:

This is probably the deepest race of the season, in what has been a very strong year for three year old turf horses. Half of the field is based on the eastern half of the country, making this Grade 1 a true showdown.

1. Kanderel: This California based son of Candy Ride ran in the three traditional three year old turf races at the summer meet (Oceanside, La Jolla, Del Mar Derby), struggling a little more as the waters got deeper. He’s been gelded since his last start, and has been given about three months off. I can’t blame the connections for taking one last shot in a race restricted to three year olds, but this is an awfully tough spot. 

2. Smooth Like Strait: He’s drawn well for the race he wants to run in this large field. Rispoli has been aboard for his last two graded stakes wins in the La Jolla and the Twilight Derby. He’s got some other horses that want to run early with him though, most notably I’m Smokin (9), so the pace should be honest. In a field where it feels like we’re splitting hairs to get to the winner, I think he might be more effective at the flat mile, and others will be finishing better in the lane. 

3. Scarto: This $7,000 purchase is an absolute runner and he’s proven to be a strong competitor in two turn grass races. He handled the rise to graded stakes company well last out, finishing a decent second behind Smooth Like Strait. I think others are better, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had another forward move.  He’s 10-1 on the morning line and has the look of horse whose price could definitely float up. He might be worth a stab if he gets overlooked.

4. Taishan: He reset his three year old campaign by switching to the turf and he ran really well doing so in the American Turf at Churchill on Derby Day. He followed that up with a bit of a disappointing effort in the Bryan Station on Breeders’ Cup Friday. I’m not sure what the strategy will be for him, as he showed that he can be an effective closer when he missed the break two back, but he didn’t have the same punch when covered up and attending the pace last out. I tend to think he’ll be a bit overmatched here.

5. Storm The Court: Last year’s surprise winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has yet to find that success as a three year old. However, he’s been looking better in his last few starts, and I thought his lone turf try in the La Jolla was decent. I think he’ll wind up having more a future on the lawn, but that being said, this field might be a little too deep for him at the moment.

6. California Kook: She ran here Thursday in the Red Carpet and will most likely be scratched.

7. Strongconstitution: He won the restricted Let It Ride stakes here on opening weekend, but this is a much stronger group that he’s up against today. Even though both of his two career wins of came on the grass, his speed figures are better on the main track. I think he’s another one that is up against it here. 

8. Domestic Spending: This guy has the potential to be the next big thing from the Chad Brown barn. If goes off anywhere near his 5-1 morning line, that would be a gift, as I think he is the best horse in the field. He’s 3-4 lifetime, and I think he ran the best race in the Hall of Fame at Saratoga when he missed the break in a short field and was cruising home late. Irad Ortiz already won one stakes for Chad Brown this weekend and I think this one has the best shot to score here. 

9. Get Smokin’: He’s another overachiever who has certainly had a monster return on investment, as he was purchased for a mere $11,000. He won the Hill Prince last out while setting a methodical, uncontested pace. There’s others here that will be forcing the issue, and that has not been a winning recipe for him in the past.  

10. Decorated Invader: He started off his three year old campaign with three straight wins, before coming up just short in his last two. He certainly was at the head of the class earlier, but I think the others have caught up to him. I also think he’s more effective at the mile as opposed to the 9 Furlongs he’s getting today. He’ll be one of the favorites, and one that I’ll take a stand against today.

11. Ever Dangerous: He quietly snuck into the Bryan Station at Keenland off the AE list. He had to manage breaking from post 14, and held off all comers to win at 74-1. Whatever issues that he encountered in the spring, seem to be behind him as his last two have been really good. He steps up in class and draws outward again, which is no bargain on this course. He’s an interesting play if he goes off at odds greater than his 12-1 morning line, as I think he’ll get first run on the early speed horses. If some of the deep closers hit traffic, he could be the beneficiary.  

12. Lane Way: He’s never been off the board in eight career tries, but he’s never ventured into graded stakes company either. He’s stretching out to 9 Furlongs for the first time which is another question mark. Couple that with a rough post and I think he’s in for a long day.

13. Gufo: This son of War Front closed into a slow pace to win the Belmont Derby in his last start. He should get a decent pace to close into here. His wide draw shouldn’t affect him as much as some of the others, as Prat will likely be content finding a place to drop in off the pace to save as much ground as possible. I think he’s better than his stablemate and likely to go off a better price as well. I think he’s one you have to use.

My Picks: 8-13-11

Aqueduct, 11/28/2020, Race 10: The Grade 3 Long Island, 1 Mile and 3/8, Turf

The last graded stakes race on the grass in New York for 2020 drew a deep and competitive field with 12 starters and 1 AE. There are many different ways to go in this race which looks like a spread leg in the multi-race exotics.

1. Eliade: She exits a 12 Furlong NW2X score at Keeneland, where the pace scenario was a little more honest than what she saw in the G3 Glen Falls, when they were absolutely walking for the first mile. I assume she’ll be one of the horses to benefit from a course that will likely be on the softer side. Even though he’s had a disappointing meet, this race is likely going to be rider’s race, and with many talented riders out of town, Jose Ortiz is probably the best rider in the bunch. 

2. Wegetsdamunnys: She returns to open company after three competitive efforts with New York breds. She was 8^th in this race last year, but only beaten less than two lengths, while navigating the tricky 12 hole that day. She draws better, but was more consistent with her efforts last year. I think she’ll come up a bit short again.

3. Traipsing: She’s the second of three horses trained by Clement lined up beside each other here. She’s only making her seventh career start today, making her lightest raced horse in the group. She stretches out longer than she’s ever gone, while also moving up in class. Clement certainly knows how to get a horse to get these distances, but others are more enticing today.

4. Mutamakina: She makes her second North American start today after finishing a close up 3^rd in the Zagora last out. Watching the replay, there’s absolutely no doubt that she was the best filly in the race that day. She track the leader in third most of the way around before steadying hard and getting shuffled back to 8^th, while the eventual winner and runner up were making their moves. She’s the morning line favorite, but I do fear a bit of a bounce. Dylan Davis taking over for Joel Rosario (who is at Del Mar this weekend) is also a bit of a concern. 

5. Siberian Iris: She appears to be staying on the eastern part of the country, as she’s been transferred to the Sisterton barn for Calumet. Her last was dull in the Dowager behind Blame Debbie. She has a stakes win at this distance, which is a plus, but that came last year at Del Mar. I’m not sure she has another run like that left in the tank, as she nears the end of her six year old season. 

6. English Affair: She’s a bit interesting in this spot as she seems to thrive while racing on softer courses. She had a big effort two starts back at a mile at Ellis on soft ground. She bounced a bit, while being a bit rank at Kentucky Downs in her last start. She’s had a brief freshening and has been working steadily for this start. She’s 0-2 at the distance, but has been competitive when running in these longer races. She’s certainly not impossible, and worth a look if she goes over 10-1 in the wagering.

7. Beau Belle: She carved out the slow early fractions in the Zagora last out before stopping badly that day. She’s a good gate horse, but she’s better when she’s able to come from off the pace. I believe she can rebound off her dull race last out, and that effort will certainly drive up her price today. That being said, she’s still eligible for NW2X, and other than an oddly run Glen Falls, she hasn’t been much of a factor in stakes company.

8. With Dignity: She was an okay third behind Blame Debbie in the Dowager last out. That race came back on the slower side and the form held true as Blame Debbie could only muster 5^th in the Red Carpet at Del Mar the other day. While she’s improved, her numbers are not as good as most of these today.

9. Theodora B: She had her two race win streak snapped when she came up empty once she was pressured by Etoile in the Grade 1 EP Taylor last time out. She’s recovered nicely from dull efforts in the past, and this course has played kindly to front runners during this meet. I think a crafty turf rider like Lezcano is the perfect for her. I think she gets back on track today.

10. Pretty Point: She continues her eastern tour after she was a non-threatening 6^th in the EP Taylor last out. She won at this distance earlier in the year at Del Mar, but that was not a fast race. Her dull try makes me wonder if she really doesn’t care for the softer ground you see this time of year. 

11. Hungry Kitten: She was in another zip code at the start of the Zagora, but she steadily advanced and closed nicely into a slow pace, just missing the win. She’s getting better with each start, and her pedigree and performances suggest that these are the kind of races she wants to be in. I don’t love that Jose Ortiz opted for Eliade, after riding this one in her last three starts, but when you have the fire power that the Brown stable has, I suppose it’s hard to say no. I still think she can be a factor in this race, especially if there is more early speed than anticipated. I’d upgrade her chances, if the AE (Lovely Lucky) draws into the field.

12. Delta’s Kingdom: She draws the outside post today after being beaten by Eliade and Theodora B in her last two. Alvarado will have to be crafty early to ensure a good spot. She’s not impossible, but I prefer others in this spot today.

13. Lovely Lucky: She’s on the outside looking in, as she’s the lone also-eligible in the field. If she does draw in, I like her chances more than some of the other longshots in the body of the field. If she draws in, she also has more early foot, and might need to be used a bit to get position. I might downgrade Theodora B a bit if this one does draw in.

My Picks: 9-1-4