Race 7: The Grade 1 Ballerina, F/M 7 Furlongs
1. Serengeti Empress: I was hoping this filly would have this race on her 2020 calendar, as it should be a great fit for her. However, she draws the rail in a race loaded with speed. She had absolutely no fight in the Fleur De Lis last out at Churchill. I’m not willing to write her off just yet, but I’m going to need a much better price than 5-2 to play her.
2. Cookie Dough: She’s another filly that is all about early speed. She cuts back after a disastrous Apple Blossom effort last out: The distance should be better for her, but her races outside of Florida have not been that good. I’ll pass on her.
3. Victim of Love: She pulled off a shocker in the Vagrancy last time at a 27-1. Most of her competition underperformed that day for whatever reason, perhaps the track condition, as it was pouring during the race. That being said, Lezcano looked very comfortable riding her for the first time, and, as a four year old, she could still have room to grow. She has an outside shot at a nice number here.
4. Bellafina: She looks like she’ll get the perfect trip in here, rating off the early pace. However, she’s had issues at the gate in the past that have cost her in big spots. 7 Furlongs is a great distance for her, but she’s disappointed too many times for me to play her on top at a short number.
5. Letruska: She’s the third horse in here that is all about early speed. She should be a factor at the distance, and she might have more staying power than the other two speedsters, but it’s hard to envision any of them surviving that duel.
6. Pink Sands: It hasn’t been easy to be a deep closer at the Spa this summer, but if the track is playing fair, she could have a huge shot in here. She got great setups when winning the Rampart and the Inside Information at Gulfstream this winter. She cuts back to 7 Furlongs, which is a plus. She’ll have to prove that she’s not just a Gulfstream freak. This may be her best chance to do that.
7. Come Dancing: She’s the defending champion of this race, but her last three races have been far from what we’ve come to expect from her. I thought she would be more like her old self last out at Belmont but she was never getting to the winner that day. I thought her price was too low last time and I think she needs to be closer to 5-1 for me to play her.
My Picks: 6-4-3
Race 10: The Grade 1 Test, 3yo Fillies, 7 Furlongs
This is an interesting race as every year, but the absence of the two best pure sprinters in the division (Frank’s Rockette and Four Graces) is a little disappointing. That’s being said, Gamine versus Venetian Harbor should be a good matchup.
1. Up In Smoke: She was a dull 4th behind Frank’s Rockette in the Victory Ride last time out, which was her first loss while running at one turn. She’ll have to take a big step forward to be a factor here.
2. Perfect Alibi: She’s a multiple graded stakes winner at two, despite her low speed figures. She was decimated by Gamine in her three year old debut in the Acorn. I think she’ll be better than that today, but I’m not sure her best hits the board with these.
3. Mrs. Danvers: This home bred disappointed last time as the big favorite in NW1X allowance company. She’s never run a bad race, but he hasn’t faced horses of this caliber. I think she’s in too deep here.
5. Gamine: She ran one of the best races of the year for any thoroughbred this year when she won the Acorn. The question is what will she do as an encore? If she repeats that effort or gets close to it, they’re all running for the minor awards. She’s going to be awfully tough here.
6. Venetian Harbor: She has looked like the type of horse this race is made for, as she’s cutting back in distance after giving in later stages of longer races. She’s very fast and very sharp from the gate, but she has to deal with a monster filly to her inside. She’s clearly the second choice, but I just don’t think she’s the same caliber filly as Gamine.
My Picks: 5-6-1
Race 11: The Grade 1 Travers, 3yo, 1 Mile 1/4
The signature race of the Saratoga meet Is also the last stop before the Kentucky Derby for a few of these. Tiz The Law has been flawless this year, but the water only gets deeper.
2. Country Grammar: He nailed Carocaro on the wire to win The Peter Pan last month while sitting a perfect trip. He has progressed nicely in his five career starts, and figures to benefit from getting an extra furlong. Irad Ortiz is a perfect 2-2 on his back. If they go fast early, he may get the best set up again.
3. Uncle Chuck: He’s a perfect 2-2, breaking his maiden in June and winning the Los Alamitos Derby in July. He’s had everything his own way both times, beating only 7 other horses in his two starts combined. He’s going to take a lot of money strictly because of his connections. He may be the next big thing, but I’m not willing to take a short price on that proposition.
4. Max Player: Once the pandemic hit, the plan for the winner of the Withers was to wait for the Belmont, then run here and the Derby if all went well. His Belmont wasn’t bad, but he needs to take another decent step forward to contend here.
5. Shivaree: He’s part of the early pace puzzle in here as he’s one of a four that have very good early foot. He faded badly last out in the Blue Grass and I can’t imagine this one crying out for another furlong.
6. Tiz The Law: He’s been perfect this year, and Franco has helped him create perfect trips each time. He has speed inside and outside of him in the early going, so Franco will have to make some decisions early on. He’s found himself in races with decent horses, but he hasn’t been tested yet. I think he gets tested and passes that test today.
7. Carocaro: He was very game carrying his speed over nine furlongs in the Peter Pan, losing the lead in the late stages. With his post, he’s going to likely have to rate a little further off the pace to be a factor here. He’s probably the smallest of the eight horses running today, but he’s all heart.
8. South Bend: He returned to the dirt with a strong effort, finishing second in the Ohio Derby last time out. He’s since joined the Mott barn and he’s got a few nice works over the course. He was rolling late, but this is a much deeper group.
My Picks: 6-2-7