Wide open field for the closing day feature at a flat mile on the grass. Solid cases can be made for most of the field. I’m going to try to go value hunting as the favorites seem a bit vulnerable.
1. Camino Del Paraiso: This 7 year old gelding may be rounding into career best form. He’s been second in his last two turf tries at Santa Anita and was three lengths behind the Restrainedvengence and Kiwi’s Dream on the synthetic here last time. I don’t love that he has never won on this course in 8 attempts, but he does have four seconds. In his career he’s been 3 times more likely to be second or third than to be in the Winner’s Circle. To me, his best value is underneath.
2. Arch Prince: He steps up in class after winning a 50k claimer on the synthetic here. He’s much more consistent on dirt or synthetic though, with a combined record of 7 wins, 6 seconds, and 1 third in 21 starts. He only owns one win in 16 tries on grass. It’s tough for me believe he’ll win his second grass race while competing in Grade 3 company.
3. Majestic Eagle: I’m intrigued by this 5 year old son of Medaglia D’Oro who was gelded after his last start. My thinking is that as a Grade 3 winner out of a Tapit mare, gelding this horse wouldn’t have been an option unless necessary. Perhaps, he’ll be feeling better today. He makes his first start since, figures to get a decent trip behind a lively pace, and offers a lot of value at 10-1. Rispoli makes the trip up from Southern California to ride.
4. Murad Khan: He’s another Southern California shipper who has a shot. Since being claimed by O’Neill a few starts back, he’s been sprinting exclusively. He has good efforts at the mile distance on grass though, winning 6 out of 13 times. I think there are others that are a shade better, but I can’t fault anyone for taking a shot at him, especially if his price floats above the 6-1 morning line.
5. Simply Breathless: She’s another interesting entrant in here as she takes on the boys. Her last two races have been against females in Grade 1 company. She makes her second start off the layoff, but it’s hard to quantify if this is a rise or a drop in class. I understand the rationale in shipping here, as there’s not a ton of Grade 2 or 3 options on the grass for fillies and mares in California, I just like others a little more.
6. Kiwi’s Dream: He’s one of three speed horses in here, all in the outer three gates. He dueled with Restrainedvengence most of the way around the track last time in the All American. Despite being in career best form, those races were on synthetic, and I’m not willing to take short odds on this one, as I’m not certain he can transfer that form to the grass.
7. Neptune’s Storm: l love betting 4 year olds on grass against older horses, as I think they usually have more upside than some of their more experienced counterparts. He drops in class in, exiting a Grade 1 and makes his second start of the year, after a reasonably successful 3 year old campaign. If he avoids a speed duel, I think he’s dangerous as he drops to a better level for him.
8. Restrainedvengence: He is a deserving favorite, posting triple digit Beyer’s on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He’s never hit them in back to back races though, and I’m concerned his last race might have taken something out of him, as he had to work hard the whole way. I’ll try to beat him with some prices in here, but I’d still cover him in multi-race exotics.
My picks: 3-7-1