Stakes Preview: G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes – Saturday February 8th – By Mark Kapitan
#1 Ajaaweed: 4-1 One of the logicals in here off a solid 2nd place in the Remsen. Will look to sit well off the pace which here while making one big late run for Rosario who is deadly with this type of setup. I would toss that Breeders Futurity on the horrible trip and expect this son of Curlin to step forward while catching the right kind of setup.
#2 Sole Volante: 8-1 Much like the 1, will look to make one late run. Karakontie has not been a great influence with his 3yr olds only hitting at 5% and is winless over dirt. He does boast the best last out Beyer, running a 90 while 3rd in the MuchoMachoMan and Panici/Biancone have been winning at 24% over the last year.
#3 Albert Park: 15-1 This Godolphin entry is one of only 2 in this field with experience over the surface, running a well beaten 2nd in the Pasco S. The sone of Street Sense should enjoy the stretch out of Morales but would need to improve quite a lot to be a major factor in this.
#4 Independence Hall: 9/5 The morning line here is probably quite generous for the logical chalk after he freaked in the Nashua while dropping a 101 Beyer. He came back in the Jerome, did pretty much everything wrong and still won for fun. May be controlling speed in here if the 6 or 8 don’t go and has come home speed. Has been notoriously whip shy but still looms the logical choice but will almost certainly been super short.
#5 No Getting Over Me: 20-1 The other runner with experience over the track while also coming out of the Pasco S. but finishing a well beaten 7th. Camacho stays aboard and has been hitting at 36% with Bennett this year but this son of He’s Had Enough would probably need a massive step forward to hit the board.
#6 Premier Star: 3-1 Irad off and Johnny V. up for this Navarro trained son of Tapiture. Has won both of his first two rather easily and owns the tactical speed to make things rough for the 4 early. He’s yet to go past 7 panels but pedigree says he should love this, and Navarro is 24% on the stretch out and 28% right back.
#7 Tiz Rye Time: 20-1 Should go off the longest price on the board with figs that just don’t fit in this group. Will probably try and come from off the pace and hope to make first run if the front end totally falls off this but would be a major shock if this well-bred son of Tiznow can pull the upset.
#8 Chapalu: 8-1 Centeno hops aboard this son of Flatter for his first start over dirt after he won the Grey at Woodbine on synthetic last out. Off since October so a move forward is not out of the question and will probably try and sit just off the leading trio with a perfect first run setup. Would need to again move forward but that seems a logical place for that to happen. Delacour has also been lights out at Tampa this meet, winning at 35% and 32% when he legs up Centeno.
Top Picks:
#4 Independence Hall
#8 Chapalu
#1 Ajaaweed
Plays: I’ll have a win bet on Independence Hall at anything over even money. I’ll also build Tri’s keyed around Ajaaweed as I can see a scenario where this falls apart and some of the prices like the 2,3,6 & 8 could all hit the board.