- Bal Harbour- DeCarlo/Sacco
- Bal Harbour is a proven veteran but hasn’t won since 2018 when he was a 3yo. He was underperforming for Pletcher last year so he was sent to Sacco’s barn this summer. He earned back to back 3rds in Grade 3s at Monmouth. I think the ML being 5/2 is too low for me. I think he just doesn’t have the graded stakes caliber talent anymore. He seems to be pretty once paced now with no interest in winning and he has been this way for quite some time. Will be looking elsewhere.
- Prendimi- Castillo/ Carvajal Jr.
- Prendimi is a horse trending in the right direction for Carvajal right now. I don’t think he is graded stakes caliber but he is in form right now. He just beat Golden Brown in his last start and Golden Brown is 4/1 today compared to 15/1 on Prendimi. Prendimi is another one paced horse but likes competition next to him. I will be using on tickets in both verticals and horizontal.
- Wind of Change- Maragh/ Sanchez
- Romero Maragh gets the mount here today which I like. Wind of Change should be the speed here early on and could control the early fractions. This will be his first start at Monmouth and it seems like he likes two turns as well. Maragh is a talented young rider who is still trying to find his footing in bigger markets and this could be a step in the right direction for him if he can get this horse home here. A Flat mile is perfect for this horse and I think he has a shot to upset this field.
- Top Line Growth- Bravo/Rubley
- Top Line Growth is in the best form of his career right now. Bravo takes the mount today as this horse is shipping in from Laurel. He might not be graded stakes caliber but this is best form and I can see why Kelly Rubley would send him here. This is his second start of 2020 and it seems like he has improved since his 3yo season. I think he might be the best of this field and he could be sitting right off the pacesetters in 2nd or third and be ready to roll at top of the stretch.
- Golden Brown- Lopez/ McBurney
- Golden Brown is coming out of State bred stakes races in which he has faced basically the same fields each time and has a total of 1 win, 1 second and 1 third in those 3 attempts. He just lost to Prendimi after beating Prendimi in the previous two outings. Has Prendimi gotten the best of this horse or was it a fluke. At 4/1 Morning Line I will be looking elsewhere.
- Pirate’s Punch- Vargas Jr./Forster
- Pirate’s Punch gets my friend Jorge Vargas Jr. aboard today again. He was robbed of a win in the Grade 3 Phillip Iselin last time and today Vargas should be back with a vengeance. He has a balanced runstyle of where he can go to the lead or he can sit. Vargas had gotten him comfortable last time and I expect the same today. Hopefully he won’t be falsy DQ’d this time and he can win at odds around 3/1.
- Valid Point- Gallardo/Brown
- Valid Point is trying dirt for the first time today for Chad Brown as his turf days are behind him based on his past few starts. Ever since the Shadwell Turf Mile this horse has been disappointing. Will the switch in surface and drop in class be the key for this horse to find his footing again? I think so. He is 6/1 on the Morning Line and with these connections at Monmouth I think that could be a gift. If he takes to the dirt this race could be his. Will be using on all tickets.
- Name Changer- Diaz Jr./ Duarte Jr.
- I am not a huge fan of Name Changer but the connections are very good. I truly do not think he is a graded stakes horse and I think this field is tough. He hasn’t really run well since 2018 and that is the main issue here. I will be looking elsewhere but he could round out the superfectas.
TOP PICKS:
# 6 Pirate’s Punch
#7 Valid Point
#2 Prendimi