This is always a fun race as it’s the last chance for older turf horses to in graded stakes company in New York on the grass until the spring. There’s a lot of filler in here and two clear favorites, but I see at least one longshot with some potential here.
1. Real Factor: He’s been competitive in optional claiming/allowance races at Presque Isle, but this is a massive step up in class. He would be a huge surprise here.
2. Changi: He’s logged a bunch of miles in 2020, making his 12th start of the year in 9 different states. His last few races beyond 9 furlongs have been dismal and he’s outclassed by many of these.
3. Postulation: He was 4th beaten 5 lengths in this race last year. He’s been competitive in his three starts in 2020, all at 12 furlongs on the grass. He’s drawn near the rail and he has gone to the front in his last few starts. There’s not a ton of pace, so he could dictate the terms here. I’m not sure how high his ceiling is, but he might be worth a shot if his odds go over his morning line (15-1).
4. Sadler’s Joy: Last years winner of this race is in search of class relief, after a few Grade 1 tries. He’s easily the classiest horse in the race, but it’s worth noting that he finds himself in trouble an awful lot. He’s a deserving favorite, but one that’s probably worth trying to beat.
5. North Dakota: He’s been steadily improving as four year old this year for Shug McGaughey. He cleared the NW2X condition two back, so he took a shot in the G3 Sycamore, where he outrun his 24-1 odds, in his first try going further than 9 Furlongs. He may have found his niche at these longer distance turf races and could be a serious threat if he can build off his last. He probably has the most upside of any of these.
6. Tintoretto: This German bred returned to the States this summer with two uninspired races in Southern California. He hasn’t proven he’s anywhere near as fast as some of these.
7. Fame to Famous: He’s the lone three year old in the bunch, and he’s been spotted in some puzzling races, including the Haskell, two starts ago. He was a non factor against the eventual Derby Winner and again versus allowance foes sprinting on turf at Belmont. His pedigree suggests he’ll prefer longer races, but his current form suggests he’s out of his league.
8. Ziyad: He returned to the States last out to earn a decent third in the Sycamore. He had a wide trip breaking from post 10, so it’ll be interesting to see if Franco will be able to save a little more ground. His French form wasn’t quite as good this year as it was last year, but he was still competitive against some of their better horses. He’s had a few works for Motion at Fair Hill since that race. I would’ve liked to see a little more kick in the stretch last out for me to back him today.
9. Aquaphobia: He was the surprise winner of the G1 United Nations at this distance on the grass at Monmouth in July. His next two starts were very dull though. I can forgive the G1 Sword Dancer on a boggy course, but his last was troubling as he was a no excuse 7th in the Sycamore. Ignore the trouble line, as he was backing out by the time he was steadied. Perhaps he can return to form, but if he does, I won’t be backing him to do so.
10. Red Knight: He got a tremendous ride and was clearly the best in the Sycamore last time. If you draw a line through his Gulfstream race, his last four at these types of distances on the grass have been really good. The course wasn’t playing well for his running style at the start of the meet, but it’s seemed to be more fair over the past few days. He looks very tough in here.
11. Doctor Mounty: This is interesting time to try a seven year old at this longer distance. He beat lesser at Laurel two back in the Henry Clark, but was outclassed in the Dinner Party on Preakness Day. He has the stamina influence from AP Indy in his pedigree, but I’d have to think they would have tried races like this sooner if they thought that would be his game.
My Picks: 10-5-4