The Matt Winn was announced to be an official Kentucky Derby prep race and as a total of 85 Kentucky Derby points on the line (50-20-10-5) with the winner guaranteed a gate spot in the 146th Kentucky Derby on 9/5/2020 here at Churchill Downs. All eyes will be on Maxfield who has been heavily backed since winning the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland in October of 2019, but this will be no walk in the park for Maxfield making his 3-year-old debut. Here is the field.
Post 2: Pneumatic
Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr this Winchell homebred has been impressive in both career starts and sports an undefeated record heading into this race. Like Mystic Guide he has shown the ability to rate in each career starts and has shown improvement over those starts as well but is also not Triple Crown nominated yet. He is a major player and I think another win contender today and I would expect him to be one of the top few betting choices come post time.
Post 3: Informative
Trained by St. Uriah Lewis and ridden by John Bisono this son of Bodemeister has the most career starts of any runner in todays field with 9 but only has 1 win to show for it which came in his 8th career start. Most recently he finished a well beaten 7th in the Gotham-G3 at Aqueduct and seemed to be well out of his league against that field. Today he is going to be a huge price on the board so I won’t talk anyone off him if they like him but for me he is a toss.
Post 4: Celtic Striker
Trained by Raymond Handal and ridden by Manny Franco he is another longshot exiting the Gotham G3 where he was handily beaten by 42 lengths and finished 11th. He has shown early speed in his career as both career wins saw him go gate to wire. He is not Triple Crown nominated. Personally I think there is too much other speed in here for this one to get clear early so he is a toss for me, although I do think he will provide pace pressure during the early stages of the race.
Post 5: Flap Jack
Trained by Jack Sisterson and ridden by Rafael Bejarano this Calument Farms homebred has run two back to back headscratchers, most recently in the Oaklawn Stakes where he finished 12th by 33 lengths. His only career win came on Synthetic at Arlington Park and his 3 career starts on dirt have been disappointing. He is not Triple Crown nominated and I think we will see this one on the turf next time out, so I am tossing this one as a win contender.
Post 6: NY Traffic (Triple Crown Nominated)
Trained by Joseph Saffie Jr and ridden by Paco Lopez this son of Cross Traffic has looked like a different horse since entering the Saffie barn. He was a big price in the G2 Lousiana Derby and finished a solid 2nd that day. With Paco riding today I am expecting NY Traffic to be the early pace setter and I think he is a legit contender if Paco gets him out and clears the field early.
Post 7: Necker Island (Triple Crown Nominated)
Trained by Standley Hough and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione this son of Hard Spun has failed to impress so far in 3 tries against Stakes company. In my opinion he has shown to be a very 1 paced horse and at this level that just does not cut it. Keep this one on a bet back list for when he eventually drops back down to allowance level but I think he is a safe toss here as a win contender.
Post 8: Crypto Cash (Triple Crown Nominated)
Trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Corey Lanerie this son of Majesticperfection has run well in both starts in 2020 despite finishing off the board in each. Last time out he ran into the Bob Baffert monster Charlatan in the Arkansas Derby-G1 and was beaten 10 lengths. Today there is no horse like Charlatan in this field and I expect another improvement from him. He is a live longshot who I recommend using on exotic wagers, but as for the win I am a bit more skeptical. I think he is a perfect horse to use underneath, but if you’re playing Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s I can see using him in this spot.
Post 9: Shake Some Action
Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Hall of Famer Javier Castellano this son of Into Mischief ran alright in his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby-G2 last time out which in my opinion was too far for him based on his pedigree. He does fit in this race like Crypto Cash but I think can be better used as an underneath horse on exotic wagers over being a win contender. He should be a decent price come post time so I won’t talk anyone off him who wants to use him, but he is one I have to let beat me.
Post 10: Maxfield (Triple Crown Nominated)
Trained by Brendan Walsh and ridden by Jose Ortiz the second Godolphin homebred in this field is making his much anticipated 3 year old debut. He is coming in off a long layoff but has been training well. The field he beat in the Breeders Futurity-G1 last October has come back alright with both the 2nd and 3rd place finishers currently having earned over Kentucky Derby points each. If he is going to lose a race this is the race. There is a chance he is as good as we all thought he was at the end of 2019 and runs away from this field. If you are sold on him, I would use him as a single on your multi race tickets and spread elsewhere. He is a legit win contender if he returns to form, but we have not seen many of the so called good 2-year-olds from this class run back well in their 3 year old debuts. I am trying to beat him, but I will not be surprised if he beats me.
Post 11: Attachment Rate (Triple Crown Nominated)
Trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Hall of Famer Johnny Velazquez this son of Hard Spun has been well back in both stakes races he has run in but has failed to win both with no excuses. He does have tactical speed which makes him dangerous, especially breaking from outside the rest of the speed but I am unsure if he really wants to win. I am going to let this one beat me at a shorter price. If you are playing exotics I would keep him in the mix, but for the win I think he is a toss.
Post 12: Major Fed (Triple Crown Nominated)
Trained by Gregory Foley and ridden by Joel Rosario this son of Ghostzapper has run solid in all 3 starts in 2020 including a 2nd place effort in the second division of the Risen Star-G2. With Rosario in the irons he is dangerous as Rosario is the best judge of pace in my opinion. I do this he wants to go a bit longer than this distance and I do feel he will come up short unless the pace fully collapses. I am tossing this one as a win contender but like Attachment Rate I would include if you are playing exotics.