- Arch Cat- Vargas Jr./ Velazquez
- Arch Cat comes into this race out of the Bold Ruler at Belmont on Halloween where he ran 3rd in the mud. Carmouche leaves the #1 horse and rides the 7 horse, and I believe that both Vargas and Carmouche share the same agent, which means that Vargas probably had the 2nd call for this horse and then Englehart entered Tribecca and Kendrick chose that one. However, Arch Cat can win this race but he will need to step up slightly in class. Danny Velazquez is a friend of mine along with Jorge Vargas Jr, so I will be cheering for them but I also trust that Danny will put his horses in the right spot so I think Arch Cat should be ready to go. I have seen Arch cat run at Parx last fall and winter, and the gelding definitely has talent. If he gets too far back he might be out of the competition so Vargas will need to sit closer than normal for him to compete.
- Drafted- Davis/ Duggan
- Drafted is coming from the Middle East where he was running in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. David Duggan gets to train him now, and Dylan Davis gets to ride. Drafted has talent and has won Grade 3’s before but I think the competition was a lot weaker over there. I think the long layoff mixed with the shipping over here might mean he needs a race to get going. I think he has a shot to run well enough to fill out exotics but I don’t think he can win.
- Majestic Dunhill- Lezcano/Weaver
- Majestic Dunhill will be very live in this field. I like Arch Cat and this gelding just beat him last time out in the Bold Ruler. I think since Saratoga, Majestic Dunhill has been in great form facing a lot weaker fields than the Forego. Lezcano has already had a good weekend and with Rosario riding out West, Lezcano should be able to fill the role pretty well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the connections try to keep him close to the lead and pressure Share the Ride who probably will control the pace. I think he can easily go by the pacesetters if the pace is hot.
- Absentee- Alvarado/ Duarte Jr.
- Absentee I think is outclassed here by a lot. His beyers are about 10-15 less than the best in the field and I think the fact he couldn’t win an OC at Delaware in October means it will be hard for him to win a Grade 3 in New York. The class and talent in this field is just far superior in my eyes than Absentee’s talent is and that is why I am fading this colt.
- Share the Ride- Ortiz/ Arriaga
- Share the Ride is back in the Antonio Arriaga barn after having the horse ship into Parx for a prep race and running under Miguel Penaloza. Share the Ride won the race at Parx basically effortlessly and now steps up to the Grade 3 level that he has been running in. He just got caught by Majestic Dunhill in the Bold Ruler and I think the addition of Jose Ortiz should help him immensely. I think the pace will be strong but he is the quickest out of the gate. I think it will be hard to run him down unless someone pressures him early on. Must use.
- Stan the Man- Cancel/ Terranova
- Stan the Man is another pace horse that could be going to the lead early on. However, I think he is more of a longer distance horse. He has a good record at 6F, but I think he runs better going two turns. Cancel has been riding very well this year and taking advantage of the opportunities that are given to him. However, I think this is a tough race and I am not a huge fan of the cut back. Will be passing on this horse.
- Tribecca- Carmouche/ Englehart
- Tribecca is the pace of this field. The outside post however, can cost him the lead. Kendrick will have to be riding Tribecca aggressively early out of the gate in order to get over and control the lead. Kendrick is the best at doing this, but Share the Ride will also be sending. Tribecca is in great form currently and loves Aqueduct. I think it will be hard for anyone to catch him if he gets to control the lead on his own. Kendrick is the best pace rider in New York right now and is on fire at Aqueduct. Will be using him on all bets.
TOP PICKS:
#7 Tribecca
#5 Share the Ride
#1 Arch Cat