1. Just Howard: He’s one of several coming out of a local optional claiming/allowance prep here on 5/23. He usually runs a credible race, but often comes up a bit short. I suspect that will be his story again today.
2. English Bee: He’s also from the Motion barn and also exiting the same race as the one horse. He’s an improving four year old that has more upside than his stablemate. He gets some post relief today, but will require a perfect trip to win.
3. Factor This: He enters the race in his best career form and in the best current form of the field. There’s not many in here that want to go with him early, which makes him more dangerous. His best races are when he goes gate to wire. If there’s someone in here to push him harder early, he could be vulnerable.
4. Eons: He ripped off four straight wins last year, before trying the inaugural Saratoga Derby, where he finished last. He’s been away since, and while he’s been working nicely at Fair Hill, I’m not sure he’s ready to defeat the likes of these yet.
5. Aquaphobia: He was claimed by Maker four starts ago, and has improved with each start, while competing in stakes company. He’s versatile enough to carve out a good trip regardless of pace scenario. It’ll be interesting to see if he can continue to improve as a 7 year old.
6. Ritzy A.P.: He’s only 3-26 in his career, but he has hit the board another 13 times. I think his best effort gets him close, but not close enough. He’s more of a pace factor in here that might push Factor This in the early stages.
7. March To The Arch: He won this race last year in an effort that I thought was going to be his coming out party as a contender in the mile division. However, he hasn’t won a graded stakes since, winning only a Florida Bred Stakes this January. I can forgive his poor effort in California last out, but I need him to offer value to use him today. If he floats above his 5-1 ML, I’m willing to take a chance.
8. Emmaus: When he first came here from Europe last year, he put in two credible efforts at 7F on the grass. As the races got longer, his figures dropped. He races as a first time gelding today, but I don’t think he’s best going this far.
9. Casa Creed: He gradually improved as a three year old and earned a Grade 2 win in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at The Spa last summer. His comeback race on this course wasn’t bad. I think he’ll be formidable at this level later in the year with continued improvement, but I’m watching him for now.
10. Hembree: He’s the 3rd horse exiting that 5/23 OC/Alw race here. He was wide on both turns and closed to be a close third. He draws wide again and will likely have a stronger target to catch up front. He has a chance, but he’s not for me today.
11. Parlor: He was second in the same race as Hembree last time, while missing the break and changing tactics to close into a moderate pace. He was probably the best horse in the race that day, but I think Ortiz may be moved a little early. He just missed in this race from Post 13 last year. I believe he can take another step forward here today.
My Picks: 5-3-11