Traditionally, this race draws a large field and is one of the better betting stakes races post Breeders Cup. This year, only seven three year old fillies are entered to run, but the field is solid. Even though it might not be the best betting race of the weekend, this is a decent group of fillies that should be competitive in the filly and mare turf division next year.
- Hendy Woods: She’s been beaten by Sharing and Harvey’s Lil Goil in three of her last four starts. There doesn’t seem to be anyone of that caliber in this spot today. She appears to be set up to sit the dream trip in this race, just off the longshot speed horse to her outside. She can run well on a course that has some give to it. I really like her chances today.
- Positive Danger: She comes in here off a win against optional claiming/allowance types at Indiana Grand. This is a huge step in class for her and her speed figures feel very light for this group. She is lightly raced and looks to be the lone speed, so there is some upside. However, I think the most likely scenario consists of her getting swallowed up late.
- Stunning Sky: She get a great trip and ride last out when she won the Valley View at Keeneland. Santana has earned a return call after guiding her to her first graded stakes score, after coming so close in previous tries. She has been a little more tactical in her last few starts, after being further back in races earlier in the year. That adaptability should help her here with a pace that figures to be soft. She’s the main threat to my top choice.
- Princess Grace: She’s the X-Factor in this race, as she ran huge in only her third career start when she finished second by only a half-length to Stunning Sky in the Valley View last month. She might have the highest upside in this group, as she figures to improve. At 3-1, she’s going to have to prove that she can duplicate that effort at this level before I can back her, but she may offer decent value if her price climbs a few notches above her morning line.
- How Ironic: She’s one of the deeper closers in this field, and she got a decent pace scenario to set up her late charge last out, finishing third beaten a length in the Valley View. She was 29-1 that day, and enters this race at 4-1 on the morning line. Although she was close to the top pair, that race was far better than any of her previous efforts. I’ll pass on her today.
- Pass The Plate: In June, she finished in front of both Hendy Woods and Stunning Sky despite breaking from post 12 and going 8 wide in the Regret on this course. She faltered in her next start at Indiana Grand on a very wet course. She was given two months off and returned in an off the turf allowance at Keeneland, where she was a winner. She’s run well on this course in three starts and certainly could find her best form again. I think she’d prefer a firm course, but she seems to offer the best value in here if she stays near her 8-1 morning line.
- Witez: She’s another closer who I thought would run a little better than she did in the Valley View. She had a good enough trip, but the others outfinished her, which is a bit of a concern as she’s facing the top three that defeated her last time. Leparoux opts to ride her over Pass The Plate, but he rides a ton for Wilkes, so I wouldn’t look too much into that. I prefer others in this spot.
My Picks: 1-3-6