- Red Flag: He woke up in a big way when he won the Bob Hope at 7 Furlongs for fun last time out, decimating that field by seven lengths. He’s even money on the morning line, which, is fair, as two of the horses he beat are back in this race today. However, looking at his pedigree, I’m not sure two turns will suit him the best, and this will be the first time he’ll have to prove that he can get the distance. He also benefitted from an outside draw last time. He draws the rail here and there’s good speed outside of him that wants to be forwardly placed as well. I’m trying to beat him today, as I think he’ll be struggling to find late.
- Petruchio: He broke his maiden last out on the grass after three previous tries that were respectable two of which came of the dirt. This will be his first try at two turns on the dirt, which appears to be something that he’ll capable of doing. He rated very kindly last out on the grass, and as long as he can do that do when there’s more kickback from the dirt, he should be fine to be on the board with this group.
- The Great One: He’s still a maiden, and has never hit the board in his three previous tries. He was beaten 13 lengths by Spielberg two starts ago, so it’s hard to imagine he’s improved enough to turn the tables on that one today.
- Weston: He won a slow rendition of the Best Pal in August at Del Mar, which gave his connections a great ROI, as he was only purchased for $7,000. He regressed a bit when he finished 3rd in the Del Mar Futurity. He was given a little time off and returned to the races after a nice series of strong works, but we was soundly beaten. He continues to work well in the AM and stretches out to turns for the first time. It’s not the best sign that Van Dyke lands on the Positivity instead and I don’t love that his figures have dropped as the races have gotten longer.
- Positivity: This Cal-bred son of Paynter has been very good in his first three tries against state bred foes, winning the Graduation Stakes two starts ago. He just missed last out in the Golden State Juvenile, and has shown improvement as the races get longer. This isn’t a bad spot to try open company for the first time, and I can see him taking another step forward.
- Spielberg: I was a bit surprised to see him show up in the Bob Hope at 7 Furlongs, two weeks after breaking his maiden impressively at two turns. He definitely was flat that day, as he finished off the board as a beaten 3-5 favorite. I think he’s one that will appreciate two turns, and he’s the only two turn dirt winner in the field, also finishing 3rd in the Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita. I don’t think the favorite wants to go this far, and I think he is clearly the best of the rest in this field. 5-2 (ML odds) would be a gift, but if I can get that, I’ll be all-in.
My Picks: 6-2-5