Hello all and welcome to Travers week here at the Spa! Last Friday we had 3 on top winners and finished the day positive after getting hot toward the end of the day. We have 9 races on tap today with the feature in Race 8. Let’s try to get hot and pad our bankroll a bit here before Travers weekend!
Race 1: 4-5-6
I hate going with the chalk but #4 MACHO JACK is hardly facing anything in this field and looks like the most likely winner. This gelding hasn’t been seen since October but Rudy Rod is 17% off of layoffs of this type and the workouts have been solid up to this point. This is his lowest level to date and his work last year was easily the best of this crop, if he runs back to that form then he should win. #5 WARFRONT FIGHTER is dropping down to the lowest level of his career here as well. His Beyer’s are some of the best in the field. He hasn’t improved much from his first off the layoff start to his second but even if he stays at that form, the drop in class here should be enough for him to get a piece.
Race 2: 6-2-5
#6 JADES GELLY has run well so far this year and finished 3rd in what was almost an identical spot down at Belmont in July. She has the ability to run up front with the leaders or to sit right off the pace and stalk. Castellano stays up here and he has guided her to some of her best races, he will have options depending on how the pace turns out. She has an absolute bullet work two works ago and she does her best running at or around 5 furlongs. #2 KEOTA ran a solid 2nd in the same race as the top pick last time out but figures to be over bet here. She’s never actually won at this level and that last race where she out-finished the top pick by a half length was her best race recently at this level. She stalks the pace well and she can absolutely win this race as she does well at or around this distance. I’m leaving her under here as nothing about her PP’s says 4/5 favorite and I can’t accept that price when the top pick looks just as good, if not better.
Race 3: 2-1-6
#2 STAR OF THE WEST is lightly raced and dropping down to the lowest level of his career. That last race here at the Spa was a stinker but that day he was trying to come from last and the best race this guy ran was when he got to the lead. Looking at this race there doesn’t really look as if anybody other than this guy will go out for the lead aggressively. With not too much ace pressure and a weaker crop running against him, I think he should be able to win with ease here. #1 NO MORE MIRACLES looks to be sitting right off the leader and top selection here. This gelding was improving and ran his best Beyer figure right before going on the shelf. Last race he took a shot at the leader but was beaten and finished 2nd where he was all race. Manny Franco jumps up here who rode him well two starts ago and this race in my opinion looks to be the exact same scenario as the previous one.
Race 4: 1-7-2
#1 DR. SHANE is dropping to a career low here and has the best collection of Beyer’s in this field by a good amount. He’s one for two in second off the layoff runs on the grass and has enough speed to give Kendrick options here from the rail. He should be able to sit a nice trip down on the rail, stalking or being on what should be a not so hot pace. The trainer is 23% going sprints to routes and 24% with Kendrick here at Saratoga. Kendrick has been up for his best runs and at this level I believe he’s better than the rest of this crop here. #7 MISSION COMMAND ran a solid race last time out second off the layoff at this exact level and has put forth their best efforts on the grass. On the grass we see 5 races ITM out of the 9. We get a rider upgrade today to Tyler and at this distance we see one race with a second which was last time out.
Race 5: 7-6-5
#7 LOLLYGAG ran a very solid race last time out but didn’t have enough to get home going in the 5 path from the rail. Luis Saez jumps up today and there does figure to be some pace in front of him to run at. His Beyer he earned that day was the best in the field and he’s the only runner who ran on the grass. Trainer is 21% in turf sprints and does his best work in them. Her dropping to the statebred conditions makes me very optimistic here. #6 GUARDIAN MOON is making her first start and posted an absolute bullet work last time out. Barn is 14% in debuting maiden special weight runners in turf sprints at 2 years old. Joel is up and has been great in timing his runs in turf sprints this year so far, short price but definitely a contender.
Race 6: 3-2-1
#3 LA NEGRITA ran very well last time out at this level, earning a career high Beyer going 6 wide into the turn. Today we get a rider upgrade to Irad which I love to see. If we take away her starts on the turf then she’s ITM in 6 of her 7 starts and 1 for 1 at this distance on the dirt. That last race suggests that this level is very doable for her and she looks to fit well into the pace scenario here at a decent price. #2 GESTURE is dropping to a career low and taking a furlong off after coming back off the shelf. Javier will have options as she can run on or off the pace. She does get blinkers on here and that should help her to have more speed. Trainer is 30% with blinkers on and also 30% with first time blinkers.
Race 7: 4-6-8
This is a very competitive race and you can make a case for a lot of horses here but I give a slight nod to #4 HUNGRY KITTEN. This horse won last time out when adding distance and this distance here is definitely not out of the question. The trainer is 35% with NYRA based turf routers coming back off this layoff and out of those 14 races 10 of those runners ran ITM. That race last time out was a career high Beyer and her running style is well suited for longer races as she doesn’t get going until later. The trainer and jockey are 26% together this year and this one looks live at 5/1. #6 ELIADE (FR) is stretching back out in distance today to one where she has finished 2nd in both attempts. Last race she was coming on but ran out of track, that was also her first start in the states. The second domestic start here seems like she will take a step forward and she does have the class to stand with these others here.
Race 8: 1-4-6
#1 FRESCO won last time out in an ungraded stake similar to this last time out and that was here at Saratoga on this turf course at the distance. That race broke her maiden and I did play against her that day, but today we are getting a much better price and she showed she could run over this inner turf course here. There will be a pace situation similar to that one she came on to last time out and Irad stays up here. Her Beyer’s have been consistent and they match up to ever the best of this field here. #4 TURBO DRIVE gets a new rider in Luis Saez up here as Irad chose the top choice. The jockey jumping up with the trainer have a 27% success rate together. That last race was very solid coming in and closing on a decent pace on this turf course at the distance here at Saratoga. The gelding has been ITM in both races at this distance and in both races here at the Spa.
Race 9: 8-6-5
I’m going to go with a bomb here at 15/1 ML in the finale in the #8 KING’S HONOR (IRE) for a few good reasons. This is the lowest level that this gelding has ever been to and the last time he was up for sale he won, that was with Castellano. There is much right to improve second off the layoff here at a distance he has won at before. There is an unbelievable amount of turf pedigree here which is extremely encouraging and I’m really thinking if he can run to that form he should have no problem beating this crop at a price. #6 CATORAT broke his maiden here last year and just came back in July for the first time since then. He ran well that day at this level and has been ITM in every race on the grass. Eric Cancel retains the ride here and will be coming from off the pace and there is some speed in here. I expect some improvement second off the layoff here.