This is the opening weekend at what is arguably, the premier racing meet of the year in America. Some of the big stakes races have been juggled on the calendar for this year in response to the COVID crisis that shutdown many tracks across the country in the spring. Three year olds take the spotlight this weekend, with males on the turf early in the card and the first Grade 1 of the meet, the CCA Oaks at the back end of the card.
Saratoga 7/18/2020 – Race 3- The Grade 2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame, 3yo, 1 Mile 1/8 Turf
1: Domestic Spending: Chad Brown trains this undefeated son of Kingman, as he looks for his third career score. He’s done nothing wrong in those starts, breaking from the rail, settling near the back of the field, and winning with a strong late move. He’s going to have to take a big step forward again to beat the top two.
2: Moon Over Miami: He finished 4 lengths behind Decorated Invader in the Cutler Bay back in March. That was his first ever try on the turf. He has since cleared his first allowance condition, by beating an okay field at CD last out in NW1X company. He is improving, but I don’t think he’s ready for these today. He probably wouldn’t mind seeing this one come off the turf.
3. Get Smokin: This guy is a three year old son of Get Stormy who put in some decent efforts at Gulfstream this winter. He may get overlooked due to his dull effort last time, but he is the lone speed here and his best efforts have been at two turns. I’m not certain that 9 Furlongs will be his best distance, but I think he could get brave and put up a fight in the stretch.
4. Money Moves: He’s a Main Track Only entrant, who will be a very short number if this race is rained off the turf.
5. Gufo: He was a strong winner of the G3 Kent two weeks ago at Delaware, where he ran down a nice colt in Pixelate. He has won four in a row, only losing his debut. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, he will not get an ideal pace set up to aide his late closing speed. He’s a good horse that has earned a showdown with his talented stablemate.
6. Ever Dangerous: He debuted like a good thing in April at Gulfstream and followed up that performance with an 8th place effort in the English Channel, where Gufo beat him by 6 lengths. He really didn’t have much of an excuse when Domestic Spending beat him last month. He’s hard to get excited about today.
7. Decorated Invader: He returns to the place where he broke his maiden last year. He showed last time out that he can rate off of a moderate pace and still have a powerful late kick, beating the Pennine Ridge field by 4 lengths. Breaking from the outside this time, he should have every opportunity to sit a perfect trip. The extra furlong is the only unknown, but seeing how he won his last two, I’d be surprised if that beats him today.
My Picks: 7-3-5
Saratoga 7/18/2020 – Race 10- The Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, 3yoF, 1 Mile 1/8
1. Tonalist’s Shape: Saffie Joseph brings this filly up from South Florida in search of a Grade 1 victory. She is the only graded stakes winner in the field, having conquered both the G3 Forward Gal and the G2 Davona Dale this winter at Gulfstream. That being said, I’m concerned that her two turn races aren’t as good as her one turn tries and 1 Mile and 1/8 at Saratoga isn’t a great fit for her. She’s the morning line favorite, but I don’t think she’ll be the betting choice at post time. Regardless, my plan is to try to beat her today.
2. Antoinette: She is graded stakes placed on both turf and dirt, finishing third in the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Wonder Again. She is gradually improving in her three starts this year, with company lines that are stronger than most of the field. It wouldn’t be a surprise if she won, but I’d like to see her show a little more tenacity in the stretch for me to back her as a win candidate. She seems like a bottom of the exotics type here.
3. Altaf: Her first try on the dirt at Churchill was visually impressive, beating a respectable field of maiden special weight foes at a flat mile. She had trouble at the start, sat near the back of the pack, then came flying wide to decimate that field. Her pedigree suggests 9 Furlongs should be well within her capabilities. She also figures to benefit from a favorable pace scenario, as there are a lot of fillies that want to be forwardly placed here and she is very comfortable coming from behind. I don’t think she’ll be 5-1, but as long as she stays above 7-2, I’ll be using her on top.
4. Velvet Crush: She put things together to win her first race in her fourth career try at Gulfstream in December. She returned to the races in May with a dull effort in allowance company. She shipped to Churchill and scored a solid win in her first career try at two turns on dirt. She’d be more of an intriguing longshot to me if there wasn’t speed to her inside and outside. She hasn’t shown evidence that she’s comfortable rating on dirt.
5. Crystal Ball: Baffert sends this $750,000 purchase east after a dominating maiden in her second career start. However, she only beat three fillies and absolutely had everything her own way on the front end. Castellano has at least three horses inside of him that want to be forwardly placed, so he’s going to have to send her hard or try to rate her off the pace. She’s meant to be a good one, but I’ll take a stand against her today.
6. Paris Lights: She had a very good meet at Churchill, breaking her maiden in May, then defeating older fillies and mares handily in first level allowance company in June. She has shown she can rate comfortably, which will be important in this spot. She has already been successful at two turns, so I’m not concerned about the added distance for her. I think she’s the post time favorite and a serious player in here.
My Picks: 3-6-2