Keeneland Race 8: The G3 Fayette, 1 Mile and 1/8.
I think both of the morning line favorites are vulnerable in this spot. This seems like a spread race to me, as I see four that have a legitimate shot to pull the upset.
1. Coastal Defense: He’s an expensive son of Curlin who has started to put things together In the second part of his four year old campaign. He won impressively on the lead last time, but is versatile enough to come from off the pace. This is a big step up, but he carries serious expectations. He’s definitely live in his first try in stakes company.
2. Captivating Moon: His last win in stakes company came in an off the turf race at the Fair Grounds over the winter. He’s been competitive at this level, but not necessarily a win threat. He’s more likely to finish underneath if you’re using him.
3. Crafty Daddy: He battled in the stretch and held off a stubborn Captivating Moon in the off the turf Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill last out. That was his first try on a fast dirt track and he looked like a seasoned pro. He’s been improving in his two starts this year after a promising three year old campaign. I think he can make a nice trip near the front end and be a major player here for Kenny McPeek.
4. Mirinaque: He was the wild card in the Pacific Classic when he was making his first North American start. He started wilting after a mile through and was seriously outclassed. He drops into Grade 3 company, but still seems overmatched.
5. Title Ready: He was 5th in the Alysheba last out, beaten by By My Standards. He’s run very well here in three tries, but his best races were a little bit shorter distances. If he’s able to duplicate his career best, he still is probably struggling to hit the board.
6. Mr. Freeze: He was a decent second last year in this race behind Tom’s d’Etat. There’s no one in this field of that caliber, but even still, his form is a bit in the downward cycle. I don’t think he loves the 9 Furlong trip, which makes me want to bst against him as the morning line favorite.
7: Rated R Superstar: He’s danced many dances I. this seven year old’s career, but his last few have not been up to snuff. He cuts back in distance, but will have to produce a much stronger effort to beat this group.
8. Tax: Last years Jim Dandy winner has struggled in two starts this year, albeit, while facing better. He’s been away since May, and has been working well for a barn that wins with 21% of their horses off the layoff. That being said, I can’t take a short a price on him today.
9. Mo Mosa: He’s the only three year old in the group that’s facing his elders for the first time. He’s coming off a solid race in the Oklahoma Derby where he earned a career best figure. He’ll have to improve on that number to win today, but his last two starts indicate he’s trending upward. He’s not impossible.
10. Aurelius Maximus: He’s another beautifully bred colt that enters this race with some lofty expectations. He’s won his only starts of the year, while leaving something in the tank after his last win. He’ll need to work out a good trip, but he’s very dangerous in this spot.
My Picks: 3-10-1
Keeneland Race 9: The G1 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup, 3yoF, 1 Mile and 1/8, Turf:
This is always a special race for this division, and this year is no different. They’re all going to be trying to get to foreign invade Magic Attitude, who exits a big effort in the Belmont Oaks last month.
1. Harvey’s Lil Goil: She ran a big effort in defeat in the Dueling Grounds Oaks last month. Her two turf tries in her career have been really good. She cuts back in distance and should be a major factor here.
2. Sweet Melania: If it weren’t for Antoinette, drawn directly to her outside, she’d likely be an easy and controlled pacesetter. She had everything her way and still couldn’t quite hang on last out in the Lake George last out. She’ll need a strong, career best effort to beat this field today. She’s live, but I think others are a little better.
3. Antoinette: She always runs a decent race, regardless of the surface she’s racing on. She’ll serve as a pace presence this afternoon and she’s one that could hang around for a slice as she’s only finished off the board once in nine career starts.
4. Magic Attitude: She looked flawless while
Winning the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last month. She ships South and looks for her second American Grade 1 win in as many career tries. She was compromised in a short field last time and still won for fin. She’s strictly the one to beat.
5. Lucky Betty: She ran her best career race last out and that earned her a third place finish in the Edgewood back on Oaks Day. She’ll need to take another big step forward, which is not impossible, but even with that, it’s hard to see her beating these.
6. Hendy Woods: She’s never run a bad race in five career starts. She came within a length and a half of a very good filly in Sharing last time. She’s caught softer courses in her last two starts, so she may be move up on a firmer course. She can also fire if the weather does turn before post time. She’s moving up in class, but she’s dangerous with a clean trip.
7. Micheline: She greatly appreciated the added distance as that helped her score in the Dueling Grounds Oaks last time. The third place winner won an allowance race here last week, which is a positive. I think she might be negatively affected by shortening up in distance though.
8. California Kook: She most recently was a decent fourth while facing the boys in the Del Mar Derby. She ships across the country and faces another tough group today. While she’s been improving , I prefer others more in this race.
9. Red Lark: She’s the other Southern Californian invader, who joins Magic Attitude as the only other Grade 1 winner in the field. She’s won twice in seven North American tries and has never finished worse than three lengths behind the winner. She regressed a bit off her last big race though, and factor that with the long ship, and she’s a tough sell for me.
My Picks: 4-1-6