The first Saturday of the Keeneland meet features five graded stakes, three Grade 1’s and two Grade 2’s. A lot of divisional stars are on display this afternoon.
Keeneland 10/3/20 Race 8, The G1 First Lady, F/M 1 Mile Turf:
The first Grade 1 of the day is the third meeting between Beau Recall and Newspaperofrecord, with Uni joining the party. Newspaperofrecord won the Just a Game and Beau Recall won the Distaff Turf Mile. Uni won this race last year, so this should be a good showdown.
1.) Beau Recall: She has taken home the prize in the last two runnings of the Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill, most recently beating Newspaperofrecord. This filly has run in 20 graded stakes in North America. Her record on the Churchill turf course in graded stakes is 2-3 (with multiple excuses in her one loss). Her record in graded stakes everywhere else is only 2-17 (both of those wins came in California). During that span, she has certainly had competitive efforts in defeat at the highest level of competition. However, she’s 2-1 on the morning line and will be no worse than 3rd choice in the wagering. I will be playing against her on top and on the multi-race tickets.
2.) Dalika: She won the One Dreamer last out at Kentucky Downs, but that was a restricted stakes. She’s been spotted in softer fields throughout her four year old campaign, so this is a big step forward, and I’m not sure she’s proven that she’s ready to take such a big leap.
3.) Daddy Is A Legend: I was willing to forgive her dull effort at Ellis Park when she caught a soft course for her first try in 8 months. I would have hoped to see a bit sharper effort last time at Churchill though. She hasn’t won a graded stakes since August of 2018, and I’m wondering if her best days are behind her. Outside of the top three horses, she’s probably the one with the best shot to pull the upset, but in a small field like this, I’m not sure the value will be fair.
4.) Newspaperofrecord: Just when it looked like she had some things figured out and was becoming the horse we all thought she could be, she turned a dull effort by her standards at Churchill. In her career, she only has two wins in six tries at two turns, and both of those wins came in her two year old season, when she was simply better than her competition. I think the reality is that she is at her best at one turn, and I was a little disappointed to see her not take a shot in the Woodbine Mile, as opposed to running at Churchill last out. She is still highly talented, and there’s not much pace signed on. I think she’ll win if Uni doesn’t show up again.
5. Uni: It’s put up or shut up time for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile champion, and this may be the time where her value is high enough to take a good swing. She got a great set up in this race last year as she powered home in a visually impressive win against a deep field of 13, including stablemate Rushing Fall. I think she has legitimate excuses in both her starts this year though. She was a little rusty in the Just A Game when she made her first start of the year, but she was a little flat last season in her seasonal debut. She caught a good course last out at Saratoga and circled 6 wide before flattening out. That race was only race of the day on the inner turf course (the other grass races were moved to the main track), but by the looks of the race flow and the results, the outer part of the course was not the place to be that day. She is not going to get the best set up today, but I think on this course and distance, she is the best horse and I will take my chances with her as a single in the multi-race wagers.
6. Crystal Lake: She comes into this race off two near misses in turf sprints, both facing optional claiming/allowance fields. She has one career race that came in stakes company, and she was thoroughly trounced that day. She could be the one to apply some pace pressure to Newspaperofrecord to keep her from setting fractions of 24 and 48 seconds, which would certainly benefit the others here.
My Picks: 5-4-1
Keeneland Race 9, 10/3/20, The G1 Claiborne Breeders Futurity, 2yo, 1 Mile and 1/16
Eight of the nine colts entered will be trying two turns for the first time this afternoon, and seven of the nine have broken their maiden, while the other two have had close calls. The most expensive purchases in the field drew the outside three posts, which could create some interesting trips.
1. Super Stock: He’s a modestly bred son of Dialed In who has the most experience in this field, making start number five. He has made improvements in each of his three dirt races, finishing 3rd in the Iroquois last out. I thought that was a sneaky good effort, as he attending a pace that was strong, especially in the second quarter. He was blocked for a bit and passed by Sittin On Go, who had all the momentum at that point. He still ran on well to finish third, when the other pacesetters were wilting. I don’t worry about him getting the distance, and I think he’ll get a good inside trip. He’s a live longshot in this spot for me.
2. Upstriker: He’s one of two Upstart colts that boast a big speed figure while winning their debut. He was one of the more impressive maiden winners at Ellis this meet, and we’ve already seen Girl Daddy go from a maiden special win at Ellis to a graded stakes win in her next start at Churchill. He leveled off nicely in that race which indicated that he could do well stretching out. He’s a definite possibility in what looks like a spread race for me.
3. Notary: He was part of the pace pressure last out in the Iroquois, and he faded that day to finish 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner and 7 lengths behind Super Stock who ran right near him in the early parts of that race. I think he’s in too deep today.
4. Essential Quality: He broke his maiden emphatically on Derby Day, coming from off the pace and surging by once he had room to run. This Godolphin homebred is bred to get better as they go longer distances, so he’s a logical contender. I’m using him on my multi-race tickets as well, but I’m not sure the value will be there with him as he’s the 2-1 morning line favorite in a race with many chances.
5. Keepmeinmind: He debuted in an off the turf maiden special weight at a flat mile at Churchill. He stayed on well enough to finish second that day, but I’m not sure how deep that field was. He certainly could improve in his second start, and he hung in there well enough to think that it wouldn’t too crazy to use him underneath in the trifectas and superfectas. Other than that though, he would be a big surprise if he were to finish first.
6. Dixie’s Two Stents: He ran a big effort in defeat in a maiden special weight at Del Mar in August. He took a swing in the Del Mar Futurity, as Doug O’Neill likes to do, but he finished dull sixth as the 2-1 second choice that day. I’m not sure I love him stretching out again after his last performance. He’ll be a pass for me.
7. Calibrate: He was an impressive first out winner at Saratoga, battling some nice horses while on the rail. He kicked clear and won impressively that day. Asmussen said that day that this was the next stop for him, so clearly this has been part of the plan. He should handle the stretch out and will be dangerous if he can avoid a speed duel.
8. Founder: He won while closing in the mud in his debut for Chad Brown back at Saratoga. The horse he beat went on to win his next start, so clearly there was some talent in that field. Chad Brown wins at 36% with the horses that he stretches out from a sprint to a route, which is a stat worth paying attention to. He’s already handled dirt to his face, so closing and getting this distance shouldn’t be an issue. It’s also worth noting that he is by Upstart, who has a $10,000 stud fee, and his connections paid $600,000 for him at the OBS March Sale, so clearly there was real talent there.
9. King Fury: Kenny McPeek has had a really good year and he has done so well in his career taking modestly priced horses and getting them to excel (see Swiss Skydiver). He comes into this race with the most expensive horse, who cost $950,000. He’s a son of Tapit out of a Flatter mare, so the distance won’t be a problem for him. He’s the only horse who has gone two turns, and he had an outside draw that day as well. He is capable of improving and another one that I think you should take a close look at, as there is definite value on the morning line at 12-1.
My Picks: 1-9-8
Keeneland Race 10, 10/3/20, The Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, 1 Mile, Turf:
As usual, this race has drawn a large and deep field of milers with Breeders Cup Mile aspirations. Chad Brown is well represented and he is looking to rebound in this division after his four horses in the Grade 1 Fourstardave finished 5th-8th on 8/22.
1.) Casa Creed: He benefitted from a hedge skimming ride in the Fourstardave when he rallied to finish third, earning his first career triple digit Beyer. He has improved with each start in his four year old campaign. He’s not as flashy as some of these, but I could see him taking another step forward and being a factor in this race.
2.) Halladay: Luis Saez wasted no time putting him on the lead last out, after trying to get him to rate in the Bernard Baruch two starts ago. He has an inside draw and it doesn’t look like he’ll have to work too hard to find his way to the front end. He is definitely a better horse when he is setting the tempo, and he doesn’t mind going fast to do so. Unless one of the stretch out sprinters is dead set on getting the lead, he should be in the driver’s seat, and that’s not great news for the rest of the field.
3.) Without Parole: He was chilly on the board in the Fourstardave and turned in a dud of an effort. He is still searching for his first North American win, and after his recent efforts, I’m wondering if he’ll have to drop to Grade 2 or 3 company to get that done. If you’ve been burned by him in the past, but still think he’s the goods, this is your time to fire, because I think he’ll go off at least at his morning line figure of 12-1.
4.) Bowies Hero: Last year’s winner of this race is back in town and looking to take the hardware again. However, his form in 2020 hasn’t been as sharp as it was last year. Perhaps this six year old is starting to lose a step. However, I could see a turnaround here if Bejarano has more success getting him to relax off the early pace. He was up close to a pretty hot pace last time and wilted late. Perhaps the return to Keeneland and having him sit a little further off the pace early on will help.
5.) Born Great: He is well bred, but he only has three starts in his career. He looked good breaking his maiden and winning his first level allowance at Kentucky Downs last month. This is a big jump in class and tacking on extra distance for the first time seems to be asking too much.
6.) Raging Bull: Like his stablemate Uni, he had to fan wide in the Fourstardave to make his late charge, but I don’t think that was the best part of the course, as both of them seemed to uncharacteristically struggle down the lane. He comes back to Keeneland after finishing in a photo for third when beaten by War of Will in the Makers Mark Mile this summer. If you’re willing to completely ignore the Saratoga race, you’re likely going to get him at his largest price since the Manhattan last year.
7.) Flavius: This Juddmonte homebred was very sharp last month winning the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs. He now has to travel two turns, which he has done, but not as effectively. I think he’ll be better off that big Beyer figure, but I’m not convinced that number is a bit higher than it should be as there seemed to be a bunch of distance and timing questions at the Kentucky Downs meet. I kind of get the feeling that he’ll regress a bit here, and I’m willing to take the swing against him.
8.) Analyze It: This one was an exciting prospect for Chad Brown that won his first few races by big numbers, then followed that up by losing three heart breaking races in a row with the top three year olds on the grass in 2018. He tried facing older horses in this race, and finished 4th, before just fading late in the Breeders Cup Mile that year. After that, he was MIA for 22 months before resurfacing in the Red Bank at Monmouth on Labor Day Weekend. He beat a lesser field that day, and looked like he hadn’t lost a step. This is a big step up in class from his last start, but he looked pretty comfortable rating off the pace, something he struggled to do as a three year old. He’s very interesting in here to me.
9.) Parlor: I thought we would see a much better effort from him in the Tourist Mile last out. Perhaps, he doesn’t love Kentucky Downs, as he was kind of flat in that race last year too. Prior to that, he was steadily improving in the Mike Maker barn, and came within a nose of pulling off the shocker in the Makers Mark Mile at 24-1. Rispoli takes the mount for the first time while Geroux is riding at Pimlico. He’s a question mark for me.
10.) Spectacular Gem: He was a part of the strong pace early on in the Turf Classic last out on Derby Day. He cuts back to a mile, which is his best distance. I don’t think the wide draw is ideal for him though, especially with Halladay much farther inside of him. I think some of these are just a little bit better than him.
11.) Ivar: The Brazilian bred came to the states after two emphatic Group 1 wins in Argentina. His first race in America seemed more like a learning experience, but his last two have been really good, including a close up third in the Tourist Mile. He was forwardly placed in his last two, and ran poorly when he was placed more midpack. If he can be comfortable rating, and work out a trip from Post 11, he could be dangerous this afternoon.
My Picks: 8-2-11