- Hey Dakota- Lopez/ Servis
- No Irad today due to the Saudi Cup, but Paco is capable of being a good replacement for Hey Dakota and Jason Servis. He is a very solid gelding and has proven himself time after time. However, he is stepping up in class today, and will have to close at some pace from the rail. I think if Paco can have him comfortable today he can make a run and possibly win.
- Caribou Club- Lynch/ Proctor
- Feargal Lynch brings the best out of this horse in her 3 starts riding him. I think Caribou Club has the perfect run style for this race as well. If Lynch can come in and have Caribou Club sit maybe 5th or 6th on the backstretch and get him comfortable, he should be able to roll down the stretch. He is one of my top picks today.
- Krampus- Leparoux/Tomlinson
- Krampus is a talented horse and can win in this type of race but I think he might be too weak in order to do that. I think he is more of a one pace type of horse that needs the race to fall in his lap in order to win. I will be looking elsewhere.
- Hembree- Gaffalione/Maker
- Hembree is the definition of a hanger. In 31 career starts 14 of those were 2nd or 3rd place finishes. Yes, he does have 6 wins but those were races in which he wore down the leader and just got up by a nose or a headbob. I will be using it in case he does the same today but he isn’t my top pick or 2nd choice.
- Sombeyay- Prat/Pletcher
- Sombeyay gets Prat today instead of Saez. Sombeyay had no real excuse in his previous 2 starts but yet still lost by a total of a length in both combined 2nds. He should be close to the lead and could get first run on the leaders early. However, him not being able to finish the job the past two starts makes me want to stay away today.
- Gemonteer- Vasquez/Antonucci
- Gemonteer in my opinion will be on the lead early with Miguel Vasquez. I don’t think it will be an uncontested lead but I think he will be in contention early. He is 5 for 6 in the exacta on the GP turf. Miguel has ridden him a lot early on in his career as a racehorse which I like. Will be using in horizontals but he isn’t one of my top picks.
- Mr. Dumas- Franco/Maker
- Mr. Dumas is a very interesting contender here. Usually Joe Rocco Jr, rides him but today they get a much needed improvement in jockeys with Manuel Franco. If he can run like he did in the Commonwealth he could win this race today. This is also the first time Maker will have the horse run in his name today as before John Ortiz used to condition him. Much needed rest and improvements in connections should make this horse a contender.
- English Bee- Castellano/Motion
- English Bee is one of my top choices if not my top choice today. I will toss his last race as it did lead to a layoff. I think he will be well rested and have been working pretty well, and gets Castellano today too. If the two races before the Tropical Derby are the races he goes back to in form, he can win this race and will win this race. I like him a lot today at a price.
- Gidu(IRE)- Velazquez/Pletcher
- Gidu is going to be the other pacesetter and might be the fastest of the bunch. He is classy and this combination of Velazquez and Pletcher are always live. I think he has a shot but I will be looking elsewhere as I think there will be a pace meltdown today.
- Louder Than Bombs- Bravo/Fawkes
- Joe Bravo picks up the mount on Louder Than Bombs today instead of Canchari. Bravo has been known to spark the upset and this race is wide open. I don’t like Bravo as a rider so I won’t be using him but the horse has talent. He might need the lead in order to win and I don’t see that happening today.
- Musical Heart- Maragh/Miller
- I never play Tony Maragh because he is a shady jockey. This horse prefers dirt and isn’t that classy. Turf just isn’t his speciality and in a field this deep, he is one of my tosses.
- Flying Scotsman- Geroux/Sisterson
- Flying Scotsman lost last time out but the horse who won was DQ’d due to a positive drug test. He can sit the trip with Geroux but the post is pretty rough. In this huge field the 12 post is horrible if you don’t have some early pace in which he doesn’t. It will be rough for him to sit close and he might get drifted wide.
AE- Thunder Ride- Maragh/Pompay
- Thunder Ride is an AE and needs the lead in order to win. However, if he gets in he might be able to send hard early and make a case for himself.
AE- Joyful Heart- Torres/Condie
- Joyful Heart needs a couple scratches to get in and is 30/1 ML. He couldn’t even win in a Claiming 16N2L two back so I will be looking elsewhere if he scratches in.
TOP PICK
#8 English Bee
#2 Caribou Club
#7 Mr. Dumas