BESSARABIAN STAKES
- Painting- Kazushi Kimura- Josie Carroll
- No matter the horse, I will always respect the horse Kazushi Kimura gets aboard. However, this filly seems to be in a tough spot. She lost to Gamble’s Candy two back in her third start against winners. In her only stakes race, she ran 7th, and there was only 8 horses in the field. Today she gets to face 12 and from the rail which are both not ideal situations.
- Amalfi Coast- Eurico Rosa Da Silva- Kevin Attard
- If this was a Turf route she would be in the range of 5-1 or 6-1 but since it is a 7F sprint on the synthetic, she jumps to 20-1. Synthetic isn’t her friend compared to the turf course up north. Da Silva won the stake yesterday aboard Pink Lloyd but that race was easy for Pink Lloyd since Pink Lloyd is a monster. I think Da Silva, will be about mid pack with this horse but I think she just prefers turf more and it isn’t really a question.
- Zestina- David Moran- Sid Attard
- I think this is the horse that finishes last in this field. I think that she is a little out of form based on her past performances, and especially with the spaced out layoffs. Either the horse is just not training right or she is a bit of a hassle in the mornings and it’s hard for her to get a consistent work tab. Also I can see based off of her work tabs something went wrong in between her last race and November 10th, because taking 15 days in between a 5th place off the layoff finish and a workout while prepping for a Grade 2 isn’t a good sign for me. I will have to pass.
- :Heavenly Hill- Justin Stein- Josie Carroll
- This one is Josie Carroll 2nd horse out of 3 in this field, and the one out of the three that looks to be the most dangerous in my eyes. I think he will be a valuable price which is great in a 12 horse field. However, I think he also will be flying late with Justin Stein aboard who as of late has been getting horses to kick into that last gear down the stretch. If Stein can get this filly to break cleanly and alertly today, I think she can be more in touch with this field early and make a true run for the winner’s circle. She has two thirds in stakes races at Arlington and Woodbine and is coming off of her best race in my opinion of her career which means she most likely is coming into peak form. Solid chance.
- Above All Names- Gary Boulanger- Blair Miller
- I think this filly has been overused this early in her short career. 14 starts in her 2yo and 3yo season combined and she hasn’t done much in her 3yo campaign. She was a stellar 2yo with being a stakes placed filly and then she was tossed from barn to barn and from track to track and now as a 3yo, she hasn’t shown up. I don’t think she shows up today as she might have already peaked as a 2yo.
- Xenobia(IRE)- Nik Juarez- Jonathon Thomas
- The ML favorite gets Nik Juarez in to ride and is shipping in from New York. She has never run on Synthetic and she seems to love turf more. She also seems to be a filly who will be gunning for the lead especially with the cutback in distance. She is 50% out of 6 starts at the distance which is beneficial but those wins came overseas in Ireland. She is a live favorite but she is also beatable with the first time Synthetic and possibly speed duel with the #7, #10, #11.
- Gamble’s Candy- Luis Contreras- Josie Carroll
- Gamble’s Candy seems to be also live here but could get caught up in a speed duel and that could set up for Josie Carroll’s other filly with Heavenly Hill. She seems to be the actual speed and the fastest of the bunch early on. She is coming off a win in a stake and it was impressive which makes sense on why she is back in here. She has been working pretty consistently and pretty impressively as well. She is in with a chance today too.
- Souper Striking- Jerome Lermyte- Michael Trombetta
- I am not a fan of this spot for this filly but I think she has talent. She has been traveling a lot this year as well which is never a positive sign for me unless you are a top tier horse. This will be her 7th track this year in 8 starts. She has yet to see the winner’s circle this year as well. Have to pass on her today.
- Misericordia(GB)- Jevian Toledo- Jorge Duarte Jr.
- Another winless filly on the year in this field. She has one third in one try on Synthetic and it was the G2 PID Masters at Presque Isle Downs in September. However, she hasn’t run since and it was her best career effort. Does she like synthetic more? Or is she just peeking at the right moment. I think it is a little of both and Toledo who is familiar with Duarte ships in to ride as well.
- Red Cabernet- Emma-Jayne Wilson- Ian Black
- This filly has been consistent over the past two years in restricted stakes races up north. She seems to prefer turf more than Synthetic but runs well on both. She seems to also like to sit right off the pace but at post #10 it will be hard for her to come over and sit close to the rail. I don’t quite know if she can get the trip here but I think if she does and can take that slight step up she can get the job done here at a price.
- Lady Mamba- Rafael Hernandez- Cherie DeVaux
- This filly also seems to be one of the speed horses early on. She is a Kentucky bred who started her career in California and had some promise early on but as a younger horse she seems to get tired too quickly and now the connections seem to want to make her sit off the pace which in my eyes looks like Lady Mamba isn’t happy about. She seems like she likes to go quick early and that is really it, but she also won’t win that way in this field. Rafael Hernandez won a few yesterday and has been riding hot lately so maybe the right trip set up by the jockey and she can be live.
- Special Relativity- David Cohen- Norman McKnight
- David Cohen ships in to ride this filly and gets a horrible post. The 12 hole is bad unless you show speed or a one run closer. She seems to be neither and that isn’t helpful. She just missed in a G3 last time out and outlasted one of my top choices in Heavenly Hill. She has a few bullet works coming in which means she is fit and could be coming into form but the post is the one downfall for me. Live horse though.
TOP SELECTIONS
#4 Heavenly Hill
# 12 Special Relativity
#6 Xenobia (IRE)