After missing last week I’m switching around with Ed for this week, I’ll cover today’s card and he will take Friday’s card, be sure to give him a follow on twitter @EdPiluso. Today’s card at the Spa features a lot of 1 1/16 turf races (there’s 5 of them!) and of course there is value to be found if you’re looking. Next week I’ll be going back to the Friday writeup, until then best of luck today and as always you can find me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 316-83-59-66 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Race 1 Claiming 40k 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 5-7-4
Top Pick: #5 New Day Dawning scratched out of a similar race yesterday in favor of today’s spot for Joe Sharp as she ships from Ellis Park to take to the turf. Gets a jock upgrade to Luis Saez and will be a threat if she can run to how she has run over turf in the past.
Next up: #7 Little Red Frog may benefit from the added distance as top jock Irad Ortiz gets the mount. Has tactical speed to be involved and should get a nice trip from the outside post.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 7-9-10-5
Top Pick: #7 Lord Camden looks to offer some value at 8-1 ML, keeps Alvarado aboard after a decent outing last time against 25k company and now steps back up to 40k. I like that move and she can improve with a better trip this time. Ran well into a decent pace and managed to get third last time out.
Next up: #9 Senrima is a lightly raced gelding who cuts back from a mile to 6.5 furlongs, he can improve here with blinkers and some class relief as Irad hops aboard for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.
Race 3 Claiming 25k F&M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 6-2-7
Top Pick: #6 Vip Nation can improve second off the layoff as Carmouche stays aboard, he is a jockey that does well on early speed types and she is just that, will have some competing speed most notably from #2 Foxtail and #7 Rosebud’s Hope but I like her to run well second off the layoff and she should benefit from some added distance too.
Next up: #2 Foxtail is the 9-5 ML favorite who finds this spot first off the claim for Danny Gargan, another early speed type that can improve second off the layoff as she ships over from Churchill and Irad gets the mount today.
Race 4 Claiming 25k N2L F&M 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 5-2-3-4
Top Pick: #5 Rousey may be the beneficiary of what might be a speed duel upfront and could be there at some value if she gets a good trip under Eric Cancel. Gets back to dirt and should benefit from the slight class drop plus the jock upgrade.
Next up: #2 Our Lady of Loreto has a ton of speed and should fire out of the gate for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, gets some class relief after a poor ride last time out by Luis Cardenas and now gets Ricardo Santana who does well with early speed types. Will be tough with an improvement second off the layoff.
Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 8-5-2
Top Pick: #8 Graded on a Curve steps up from n1x allowance company to the next step up the class ladder and finds a nice n2x race to run into here. Chad Brown is 30% with last out winners and Irad gets the call here.
Next up: #5 Rinaldi has early speed with Luis Saez aboard and can improve second off the layoff in this spot. Ran a hard fought second against similar last race and should be competitive today.
Race 6 Maiden Claiming 40k F&M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 5-11-8-7
Top Pick: #5 More Mango stays at the same level first off the claim for Michael Maker as Jose Ortiz gets aboard and she adds blinkers. Should be tough if she can improve off that last effort where she ran for a good third.
Next up: #11 Kitten’s Romance is a second time starter for Wesley Ward with Javier Castellano, ships over from Churchill and adds some distance which should benefit here and the winner of her debut was a next out winner.
Race 7 Starter Allowance 50k 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 5-3-7-8
Top Pick: #5 My Man Flinstone finds a nice starter allowance to run in for Kenneth McPeek who sends out his first runner of the meet here, he’s shown speed against tougher and it looks like he could control the early pace with Tyler Gaffalione aboard today, looks well placed as the 9-5 ML second choice.
Next up: #3 Fed Funds is a lightly raced colt taking an ambitious step up from maiden 30k for trainer Horacio DePaz who in five starts is yet to find the winners circle but all of his runners have hit the board. Can improve second off the layoff as Ricardo Santana hops aboard.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred F&M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 3-6-2-1
Top Pick: #3 Short Pour is eligible to improve second off the layoff as she stays at this level, early speed type keeps Luis Saez aboard and should benefit from the added distance. Her last race going 7 panels over the grass she ran a nice second with an 80 beyer that matches today’s par.
Next up: #6 Myhartbelongstodady makes her 2020 debut here for a new trainer in Jorge Abreu, she has fired off the layoff before including a maiden win on debut so she can run at first asking and she is dangerous if she can keep that trend going here. Expect a good late kick from her coming down the stretch.
Race 9 Jim Morrissey Handicap 85k state bred 3up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 6-4-5-1
Top Pick: #6 Funny Guy comes out of a win in the Commentator stakes last month with a 101 beyer and he can improve on that today, has some pace to close into as well as Rosario stays aboard for trainer John Terranova.
Next up: #4 Amundson steps back up to stakes company after 2 tries against n2x company, showed improvement in his last race and has the speed to be competitive in this spot. Jose Ortiz stays aboard the 2-1 ML favorite.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 7-2-10-3
Top Pick: #7 Disciplinarian stays at the same level getting a slight cutback in distance from 6 furlongs to 5.5, I like that Jose Ortiz is sticking around to take the mount in the finale for David Donk here. Could be there if he improves with a clean trip.
Next up: #2 Every Minute is the 7-2 ML favorite and is tough to overlook as a second time starter, the debut was much needed and if he can improve he is the horse to beat. Castellano stays aboard and the class drop from maiden special will help too.