Hello all and welcome back to the Spa!!! As I’m writing this Saratoga is getting bombarded with rain, today however looks promising. I will be posting my OFF TURF picks in parenthesis, as it’s possible that we are off turf tomorrow with how much rain the turf is taking right now on Wednesday. I will also be handicapping turf races for a Good to yielding condition. Let’s get hot and start rolling again!
Race 1: 2-5-1
#2 SENOR JOBIM ran over a sloppy track over at Churchill in June and that was the second highest speed figure earned. He ran second that day and today we get the exact same crew but at a new race track. He runs around this distance constantly and does his best running with moisture in the track which he will see here.
Race 2: 6-4-7
#6 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE didn’t show a lot in his first ever outing, however we stake the experience angle as usual and Joel is staying up today which suggests he likes this colt or something about it. That bullet here at the Oklahoma three days ago also makes me very optimistic and the trainer has a statistic of being 2 for 6 with a second time starter under the conditions of this race.
Race 3 Stillwater Stakes: 6-5-3
Quick note, the 1/2 ML favorite, and my third choice, will be heavily over bet here, and though I will include her, do not accept her low odds and I wouldn’t suggest singling. #6 TIME LIMIT is the one for the upset here, she ran a day after the heavy favorite and ran extremely comparable to her. The hot Jose Ortiz jumps on today after seeing that performance where she left everybody lengths behind and that was just her first race. There’s room for improvement and if that happens she can win at a decent price.
Race 4: 4-6-2 (9-6-5)
#4 TRINITY (FR) is coming off a maiden breaking victory over a good turf at Monmouth and we get Johnny V climbing up today. The stretch out in distance shouldn’t be an issue here as this gelding has run well at longer distances before. The work he ran before this race is extremely similar to the one he ran before winning last time out and at 8/1ML lets take a shot.
Race 5: 4-5-1 (9-7-1)
#4 BARLEEWON is a first time starter with some very solid bloodlines and some nice works before today’s affair. Joel Rosario is up today, he will guide him well regardless of the surface and there isn’t too much he is facing in this race.
Race 6: 4-3-1
#4 SMOOTH WITH A KICK has run two races over off tracks and that will certainly help him here today. He’s been the best of the rest in 2 of his 3 races and here today I just can’t see anybody he will be second to in this lighter field. Chad Brown, Javier Castellano teaming up is always a recipe for success and we see very solid speed figures which are better than the rest.
Race 7: 12-10-6 (13-16-3)
#12 WICKED GRIN is coming off an odd race last time where he had to be in the 6 path at the 1/8th pole and was still gaining ground. Kendrick needs to get him toward the front today and give him a better ride with this being a half furlong shorter affair. If he does that, he should have a very good shot turning for home and that loss of a half furlong could help.
Race 8: 2/2B-7-1A (10-5-1A)
#2/2B ENTRY has a collection of runners for the lord of the turf Chad Brown stepping down in class. Not to mention that both of these colts have run on wet grass before and they’ve both done very well with that kind of surface. Part of the entry has won on a yielding turf the other has won on good turf. Add in the fact that you have two top notch riders and these two will fit the bill perfectly, I’m very confident.
Race 9: 6-3-5
#6 ROAMING UNION finished well 4 wide last time out but ran out of race track and finished second. Today we get an extra 1/16th of a mile which will help as the last time he was at this distance he won. Manny Franco gets back up today and this guy has had success at this level and above, today he drops in class. Decent price to take a stab with at 5/1 ML as Hofburg will get monstrously over bet.
Race 10: 9-8-7 (14-1A-15)
#9 STONEFACTOR is coming off a race which I am willing to look past and completely toss in fact. She is coming down in class after racing in a couple of ungraded stakes at Fair Grounds. Before those stakes we see a victory here at Saratoga over a yielding turf and that day Kendrick was up and he will retain the ride in her return to New York. That win was at the distance and at a higher level than today. We also see a very nice bullet workout and a solid collection of works coming off the layoff. She should definitely at least hit the board on the turf here.