WELCOME TO THE SPA!!! Hello all and welcome to historic Saratoga Springs, NY. Welcome to the mecca of horse racing and the summer place to be. Unfortunately this year is different than years past, there are no fans this opening day to watch the gates open at the finish line to start off the meet. We have 10 races on tap today with two Grade 3’s in the Peter Pan and the Schuylerville. Let’s get hot and start off the meet on the right foot. Best of luck to you all playing today and enjoy the racing here at the Spaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
Race 1: 2-8-4
#2 GRIT AND GLORY ran in the mud last time out so I can draw a line through that as there is no rain in the forecast for today. This gelding has speed figures that are well above the Beyer par for this race, runs impeccably on a fast track being 5 of 7 ITM. His best ever Beyer figure came 2 times ago and he also replicated that score the last time he ran here at Saratoga, at this exact distance. The horse just ran a fantastic workout at Belmont and Linda Rice is 24% with first time runners off the claim here. Tactical speed gives Luis Cardenas options and he could get us a price here at 6/1 ML. #8 RUCKSACK is a horse for the course and very much likes Saratoga being ITM in all 3 races he’s run here. He also is 2 for 2 ITM at the distance. He should be in the lead or close to it here. We don’t know how this track will play, but his speed figures and his speed suggests he can hold on for a piece as he is a nibbler.
Race 2: 3-1-10
Yes, I know it’s uncharacteristic of me to pick a first time starter in the #3 PRICE TALK but there are absolutely no world beaters here. This gelding has had average morning works, nothing that jumps off the page. What does jump off the page to me however, is the breeding of this guy. The pedigree of this guy is all for the grass which is extremely promising here. At 10/1 ML where I didn’t really like much of anyone else, why not let it fly, come through for us Manny! #1 LEADING WEST is falling a little short on the Beyer pars here but has a decent enough body of work. 3 for 4 ITM on the grass is this colt and getting a nice rider upgrade in Irad here. Blinkers are on for this horse to try and give him more speed and focus here.
Race 3: 2-4-5
This was an extremely tough race as I really didn’t see anybody to throw out after my first look over. I did land on #2 FIGURE OF SPEECH after much consideration. Reason being this, there’s a lot of speed in this race and no real closer, I wanted somebody who has stalking ability. That last race that this filly ran was a stinker but she was on an extremely long layoff. That race gets her feet back under her today and she ran very well here at Saratoga last year. Beyer’s are a bit light for her but if the pace breaks down and she stays off it she can pass everybody fairly easily it seems, good class here. #4 GLASS CEILING has shown she can stalk as well and is teaming up with Irad again who won on her last time. The trainer is 27% going from a route to a sprint and I believe she will run better as a sprinter here with the cut back in distance, throwing out the last race.
Race 4: 5-2-3
#5 VALLETTA just edged out the second choice here because of those improving Beyer numbers over the last 2 races. Blinkers coming off here which isn’t alarming to me here, from a Beyer perspective she fits and has the most experience in the field here which I do like. There are a good couple of speed horses in front of her and her stalking and tactical speed should give Javier options here. We have gotten to the “put up or shut up” point with this filly here. #2 YES TO MISCHIEF is a very nice looking horse and a 400K purchase for a barn who is 21% with maiden special weights in turf sprints. Jose Ortiz is up here and could draw the odds down for this horse a bit, this filly has some very solid workouts as well and she could win here. Demand some value here for the first time starter.
Race 5: 8-6-5
#8 THE CARETAKER is the pick here, 7 of 8 ITM at the distance, 2 for 4 winning here at Saratoga with one second. There are a lot of speed horses here and this horse can lay off what should be a hot pace and make a nice run turning for home. The race setting up for this horse is interesting, getting Irad up here is extremely promising. We see very good Beyer’s here, which are the best in the field and those last two races at this level we see a win and a place, the pick here as I’m quite confident, especially if the track is playing fairly. If the track is favoring speed #6 LEAKY CUP is going to be right up on that pace if not on the lead. He ran 3rd behind the top pick last time out and runs very consistently at this level and this distance, ITM 7 of 9 times at this distance and Junior hasn’t finished off the board in the two starts on him since February. We see two very quick workouts at Belmont leading into this race as well.
Race 6: 8-7-9
#8 SPITBALL was the only one that really jumped off the page at all to me here. Last race was his first time on the turf and he ran a very solid race finishing third and just getting caught at the wire. There is a lot of room for improvement here as he is on his third career race, Jose is jumping back up here which is very promising after that solid first race together. The cut back in distance here is very interesting, he should be able to get to the front again here and his last work is extremely similar to what he ran before the last race. Linda Rice is 5 for 13 with horses at this type of layoff under the maiden claiming conditions as well. #7 SIR CHUBBY is coming off an absolute bullet workout and has some very decent Beyer figures overall. The cut back in distance here is interesting for him and he should come off the pace nicely. Reason I would leave him under and only leave him on the under’s is because the trainer is 0 for 13 with route to sprints.
Race 7: 9-7-1
#9 SUMMER AT THE SPA is coming off an extremely solid showing down at Belmont from the outermost post and going 7 wide in what wasn’t an easy trip. Today we should be able to get a better trip and Javier is jumping up. There is some pace in front for her to run at and she can still be improving as she’s only run twice. An improvement of any kind here would put her as an easy winner against this field. She won’t need as much speed as there was last time to win either. #7 GIACOSA is coming off of a maiden win and is 15/1 ML today. The Beyer’s earned aren’t going to cut it here but there is definitely room for improvement from her. Manny opts to ride this filly and the trainer is 35% with maiden winners last race going to turf routes over the last 5 years. There’s potential here for a nice price on the under’s.
Race 8 Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes: 6-3-4
This is an extremely competitive race here but I landed on #6 QUEEN ARELLA here. Last time out she came from off the pace nicely as she had a world of trouble in the beginning. She overcame all of that settled nicely and drew out to win geared down under the wire. The Beyer came back on the low side but I think with all that trouble a clean trip here should give her a nice chance. The race also sets up well for a horse that will sit off the pace and close and she did well with that last time. #3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES ran an extremely impressive race last time out beating 10 foes home by 10 lengths in hand. That race earned a Beyer tied for the highest in the field. We see two bullet workouts since that last race and she should be ready to run a good race here. She should be toward the front and getting some pressure.
Race 9 Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes: 2-8-3
#2 COUNTRY GRAMMER has a win at the trip and the last time Irad was on him, which was also that race. That last race was coming off a 3 plus month layoff and ran fairly well for going 5 wide but the winner that day was just in the best form of his life that day thus far. That race off the layoff showed ability and also shows me that he can definitely take a step forward here stretching out in distance a bit. There’s a lot of ability here and I believe the race sets up for him well. #8 CHESTERTOWN gets blinkers on here after veering out in the stretch last time which cost him some lengths and definitely some points on his Beyer. The horse ran 2nd at the distance before in his only try, he has some good workouts as well. His Beyer’s match up with this field nicely but he has a habit of running second this year, definitely a factor here at 10/1 ML.
Race 10: 5-12-1
I think this race has the potential for something silly to happen. #5 TRADEABLE is a 15/1 ML shot that earned her best Beyer figure coming back off of her longest layoff of her life. That was at this level and I figure there is room to improve here. The trainer is 4 for 6 on the Saratoga green over the past 5 years. Also look at this filly’s running form here on the Mellon turf course at this distance, three races, a win, a second, and a fourth. Reylu’s ride last time out was meh and if he gets a better trip with her she definitely has a chance here at nice odds. #12 SHANNON’S GIRL came back off a long layoff to run decently on a surface switch at this level. She’s a nibbler by nature and is ITM 7 of 11 races, with no wins however. Her Beyer’s stack up with this field just fine and her collective body of work is honest enough. I would obviously leave her on the under’s but at 12/1 ML she is definitely live here in the finale.