Welcome back to the Spa! Last week we had a great week hitting 5 on top winners in 10 races after our previous Thursday got rained out! Let’s stay hot here and keep the winners coming for another week at the best racetrack in North America!
Race 1: 6-4-1
#6 STAY FOND has by far the best class here in the field and is taking a step down after a 6 month hiatus. This mare hasn’t been out of the money since May 2018 and runs very solid consistent speed figures. Works have been consistent and the distance of this race shouldn’t be an issue for her. Add on that we get Jose Ortiz up and we are looking at a very solid contender in the opener.
Race 2: 1-2-3
#1 SHIMMERING MOON is entered at the lowest level of her career and ran very well before going on the shelf for about 4 months. She runs well at this distance and her work outs have been steadily improving leading up to that bullet work here at the spa on the 14th. We will give her an edge in what is a fairly wide open race.
Race 3:
This race is pretty stinky, I’m not going to sugarcoat it. I hate to pick chalk but when the #1/1A ENTRY look like the only option that have a real shot to win, I have to. This entry features a horse stepping down in class who ran well here at the spa the second week of the meet. We also see the best speed figures of the field are from these guys and there’s are the most consistent. We get Lezcano and Irad up for this entry as well and the trainer and jockey percentages for these combinations are very solid.
Race 4: 4-2-5
#4 CALIFORNIA NIGHT is taking a nice step down in class after a dud in an ungraded stake at Churchill Downs last time out. This guy does some very solid running at this 7 furlong distance. We get the best rider in recent memory with Luis Saez up and we see consistent works plus a victory at this level with an extra furlong at the beginning of the year. This colt won at this distance in may as well earning a very solid speed figure.
Race 5: 7-4-6
Ah the old completely unraced maidens to end off the pick 5, fantastic. We will go with the #7 DREAM BIGGER who gets Rudy Rod and Johnny V up. We see two straight bullet workouts and a solid overall collection. Decent price here at 4/1 ML as well.
Race 6: 2-6-3
#2 PROSPERITY is somebody this race sets up perfectly for. We have at least 3 horses fighting for the lead here and this gal will sit right off the pace with the best finisher in the game Joel Rosario. That day he didn’t have anywhere to go, today a better trip will most likely come as Joel jumps on and he excels at these rides. We see a decent work since that last race and this is one of my strongest opinions on the day.
Race 7: 7-6-8
#7 SPECIAL STORY is a 12/1 ML shot that we are going to pick for a nice price here. This gelding is coming off a victory here at the Spa on opening weekend at 11/1 and is coming back. Regular Lezcano opted for the ML favorite and our second choice so Joel jumped off his mount and came here. That in itself gives me confidence plus this guy has been ITM in 8 straight races not further than 1 1/2 lengths back in 7 starts and dropping down a level here after winning. We see another bullet work since that win and I’m more than willing to let it loose on this gelding here.
Race 8 Saratoga Dew Stakes: 6-5-1
#6 LUCKY MOVE is coming off a victory here at the Spa in an allowance optional claiming race at this exact distance and is jumping into the ungraded stake rank after that win. The same team returns for this race and the speed figures of this mare are comparable if not better than the rest of the field. We get a decent price here at 4/1ML and we will take a stab here.
Race 9: 2-6-1A
#2 HIERARCHY comes into this race hitting the board in three straight one of which was at this level and all races were around this level. Joe Sharp and Luis Saez on the turf this year have been hitting at a fantastic rate. We see a very solid work out last time out here at Saratoga and this cut back in distance should help him here, going to send in this exacta and tri here.
Race 10: 4-11-6
We have some decent prices here in the finale in what is a very solid betting race. #4 THOMOND PARK is a 10/1 ML shot who takes a slight step down in class today after running a very solid race. We see solid races around this level and Jose is staying up in the finale which says a lot. We see some decent and consistent workouts and this slight stretch out in distance doesn’t worry me at all. Speed figures are solid and suggest he can snag this race at a decent price. I will be boxing these three in exactas and trifectas as there are prices here and this can be a decent payout in the finale.