Let’s go quickly over this very good ten race card at the Spa, with the listed Birdstone stakes serving as the feature, in a marathon distance of a mile and three quarters for four year olds and upward over the main track.
1st race: 1 1/16 (Turf) – MSW Fillies – 2 year olds
3-7-6
Mrs Frankel (3) debuted at a distance apparently not suited for her, now gets much more ground to work with and Jose Ortiz rides her back for trainer Mark Casse. Delaware Destiny (7) debuts for Christophe Clement, who right now leads the trainer standings. It is interesting that this Exaggerator daughter debuts on the grass, but seems she is ready to fire first time out. Simply Ravishing (6) is a NY Bred filly running in open company, and commanded ten times her stud’s fee. Watch out for her. If you can, hit the all button, nothing will surprise me here.
2nd race: 1 1/8 (Dirt) – Claim $12,500. Three year olds and upward
5-7-2
Curlin Grey (5) drops from running in better groups at Churchill and Oaklawn. This is a very weak group and the distance should fit him to a tee. Walkoff (7) is the least experienced of this bunch, and been such a low quality group, this is a plus. Maker drops him after claiming him for 7.5K more, looking for the quick return on investment. Mills (2) has the distinction of being the horse with the most wins in this group, with 9. He is a mainstay at this level, and Cancel has ridden him to his last three victories.
3rd race: 1 3/8 (Turf) – Allowance N1X – Three year olds and upward
4-5-1
This is another race in which, besides the #3 horse, each of the others has a very good chance. I will give the nod to Bluegrass Parkway (4), who is now in the hands of Jonathan Thomas, too good a trainer not to have a win at Saratoga already. He will come from the back of the pack ready to roll over the leaders. Mr. Alec (5) is now in his second race after a seven month break. He should be much fitter now and the combo of Rosario and Clement is on fire. Tide of the Sea (1) completes the trio, this one should be stalking the pacemaker and is the only one that has a win over this trip. But 6/5 on the morning line is way too short for him.
4th race: – 6 furlongs (Dirt) – Maiden Claiming $25,000 – Three year olds and upward
7-2-9
KIlmarknock (7) stumbled at the start in his last, so he was not able to be forwardly placed. In this group, he will be part of that first flight and will be a tough beat in here. Determined One (2) returns to the dirt, which in my opinion is his best surface. The last time he dropped to this level, he just missed by a half a length. Dreamofasamurai (9) is dropping from the allowance ranks, and in such a weak group, this is always important. He can be a nice price coming back from a seen month layoff.
5-th race: 1 mile (Turf) – Claiming $35,000NW3L – Three year olds
7-4-2
Big drop for Unleveraged (7), whose trainer Chad Brown hits at 49% first time claim. In Saratoga, these kind of drops are normal, being such a prestigious meeting, and is not the same than dropping in a lesser circuit. He will be a tough beat with Irad on the saddle. Megacity (4) is also dropping in class, although it’s not the same kind of drop. This one lost to Spirit Animal last time out, who has a win and a second after that. Ian Glass (2) is maybe the speed of the speed, and if he is allowed an easy lead, he can be dangerous, taking advantage of a nice inside post he drew.
6th race: 6 furlongs (Dirt) – Maiden Special Weight – Fillies Two Year olds
1-2-4
This is an impossible race to handicap, with seven out of the ten in the main body of the race being first time starters. The ones that have raced didn’t show a lot in their debuts, so I will go Needacarcalllouie (1), who shows here for Midwest powerhouse Robertino Diodoro. This filly was hammered at 30X her stud’s fee and her works are good enough to consider her in the top three. Spun d’Etat (2) caught a wet fast surface in her debut at Keeneland, she didn’t seem comfortable at all. Now goes second time out for Tom Amoss and Gaffalione rides her back. Mo Dean (4) is trained by Chad Brown and guided by Irad Ortiz. That’s the only thing you need to know. Put her in your plays. Go deep in your horizontals in this race.
7th race: 5 ½ furlongs (Turf) – Claim $25,000 – Three year olds and upward
8-9-2
Kitten’s Cat (8) ran just four days ago and shows here again for trainer Linda Rice, who hits at 37% doing this kind of maneuver. This is a move that I have always liked, specially when the horse runs a clunker last time out. He won by $32,000 less than a month ago, so this is his group. Square Shooter (9) has the best running lines of this bunch and drops to the lowest level he has faced ever. Is Diodoro and Cohen once again, and that outside post is very favorable in these turf sprints. Dowse’s Beach (2) had a nightmarish trip just a week ago, and the fact that he is running back so quickly tells me he is ready to go to another battle, also taking a relief in class.
8th race: 6 furlongs (Dirt) – Allowance NW1X – Three year olds and upward
11-6-8
If Fort Worth (11) shows in the same form that he went to the sidelines fifteen months ago, everyone else will be running for second. This horse ran in his debut against Shancelot and Bodemeister, and had his share of problems, getting a good third. Then won his maiden and went for the long break. Irad and Pletcher hit at a 31% clip together. Looms large in here. Gandy Dancing (6) was very disappointing in his most recent, but Captain Bombastic, with whom he lost, got fourth in the H. Allen Jerkens yesterday, so the race doesn’t look as bad now. He should be much fitter now. Harris Bay (8) completes the trio, always gives a good account of himself running almost exclusively in stakes races.
9th race: The Birdstone – 1 ¾ miles (Dirt) – Four year olds and upward
5-6-3
It will be interesting to know the strategy that jockeys will employ in this marathon trip. American Tattoo (5) is the fastest in here and ran lights out against Itsinthepost, who at the time dominated the marathon division in California. Apparently was way over his head and out of his comfort zone in the Hal’s Hope, now he finds a race much more suited for him. Moretti (6) won the Flat Out in his prior to last race and in his most recent, he lost to Tacitus, who ran the best race of his life. Now drops again to the group in which he fits to a tee. Expert (3) didn’t run that bad in his first experience in such a long trip. Now gets Irad up and that last one can serve him as a bolt tightener for this race.
10th race: 1 1/8 (Dirt) – Maiden Claiming $30,000. Three year olds and upward
8-1-7
Double Advantage (8) goes second time out for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is having a very nice Saratoga meeting. Drops him after running good despite a slow start, gets Irad to finish the job. Striking Speed (1) is taking a steep drop in here, from $75,000 to $30,000, and has ample speed to try to go wire to wire. That last eight of a mile can be problematic for him. The longshot here can be Bubba Chuck (7), whose debut over the main track at Aqueduct wasn’t that bad at all at this same trip, and is the only one dropping from straight allowance to claimers.