Race 1
5 – Holland – broke slowly in the debut and didn’t show too much interest after that, but I’m willing to give this
barn a mulligan and try to beat the likely heavily-favored Pletcher debut runner Mo Mischief. We often see poor
debuts followed by tremendous improvement, and I think despite the competition being at a similar level, he’ll get
more favorable trip in a five-horse field. Adds Santana this time as well, and should be a price.
5-3-6
Race 2
1 – Mr. Kringle – here’s a favorite I’m not betting against, as I think this John Terranova colt is a level above what
he’ll face here today. Normally the first thing I look for when I see heavy chalk is if the race shapes up against
them in any way, and not only did I not find that here, I actually think he’ll get exactly the trip he’s looking for. He
draws inside and has tactical speed, and there should be at least two targets to chase before unleashing the late-
kick he’s shown on more than one occasion. Drops from the G2 Pennine Ridge into allowance company here at the
Spa, but depending on the day that sometimes isn’t a drop at all. I do think he gets some class-relief in this field
however, and the distance seems to fit him well. I’ll single in the early pick 5.
1-6-3
Race 3
1 – Domestic Spending – wins on debut at the MSW level for Chad Brown at Tampa, then comes back into ALW
company four months later at Belmont and takes the money again in late-running fashion. Makes his third start
today and keeps Irad in the irons, but will go up against a very nice horse in Decorated Invader. Both the
aforementioned wins came at a mile, so we have to see how he does adding the extra panel today, but the upward
trend for absolute top connections is too juicy to ignore if he won’t be favored in here.
1-7-3
Race 4
2 – Lady by Choice – don’t think she’s quite as good as the likely favorite in here (Baby Boss), but that one is
coming off a seven month break and absolutely needs the lead to win. There are two other legitimate front-end
types in this group, so I think the race sets up nicely for Irad on the barn-debut for Maker after the 6/20 claim at
Churchill. Nice work pattern since the last race and will have the gate-quickness to get in a nice spot.
2-3-4
Race 5
3 – Summer Tune – just missed in the debut last month, then came back in a MSW at Monmouth a few weeks back
and finished nicely for third. John Stephens doesn’t run many, but he’s normally very live on the grass despite his 1
for 27 start to 2020. Adds blinkers for the first time and clearly wants to be more involved early on, and Jose
Lezcano takes the mount from Joe Bravo. I like him at a nice price in here.
3-6-2
Race 6
1 – Rip It – Clemente was so live at the Belmont meet, and shows up here with a first-timer going two turns on the
lawn with Rosario up. He’s hitting with 26% of his debut runners, and the breeding suggests he’ll fire in the maiden
voyage today. Don’t think we’ll get anything close to the 6-1 morning line, but this is a nice group so the value will
almost certainly still be there.
1-3-9
Race 7
1 – Yaupon – won impressively on debut at Churchill last month after rating and taking over before the turn, and
showed some nice quickness in the process. Comes back today into allowance company, and albeit a tougher
group he could find himself alone on the lead with the general lack of speed signed on. Stays at six furlongs and
gets Rosario to take the mount, so I give this $255k son of Uncle Mo a huge chance in here.
1-3-4
Race 8
2 – Kumar – he’s battled in the allowance ranks and on the turf for the better part of 2020, and I think he’ll very
much enjoy the drop back down to the claiming ranks today. He’s won twice in seven career tries over a fast main
surface, with a place and a show as well, and threw up a career-best figure with Alvarado in the irons at this level
back in January. The 7/11 work looks good, and Rudy usually has his horses ready to fire.
2-9-3
Race 9
2 – Ramsey Solution – ran huge en route to winning an optional claimer at this distance at Churchill back in May,
and carries the early speed that could be the deciding factor in here today with not much zip signed on. On figures
he more than fits in with this salty bunch, and proving the win was no fluke two months ago all you have to do is
look at the nice allowance efforts over the synthetic at Turfway to prove the versatility of this one. Looking for a
front-running victory here today.
2-7-6
Race 10
3 – Altaf – toss the turf debut at Gulfstream and watch the dirt win at Churchill back in May, because this filly
unleashed a furious late rally to win easily despite a bumpy ride on the backstretch. She faces winners today and
this is certainly a major step up, but in a short field with some legit speedsters signed on I think she gets something
to run at here with one of the great closing-riders in the game. If she finds another level I think she finds Grade 1
glory at the spa today.
3-1-2
Race 11
4 – Midnight Whiskey – not a crazy opinion here, but I trust Asmussen getting a fast track with a young runner
who has shown speed in his previous two races. Rosario keeps the mount and I’m going for the Joel late-double in
the nightcap.
4-2-10
Have a great Saturday everyone!
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 622: 139-118-103, -20% ($1,244 wagered, $994.80 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.3%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 57.9%
2020 Belmont (Spring) – 53: 8-7-9, -54.4% ROI ($106 wagered, $48.30 returned)
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Final Total: 121: 26-23-20, -13.8% ROI ($242 wagered, $208.50 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)