Hope everyone enjoyed opening day at the Spa! It did rain later in the afternoon on yesterday’s card so I am anticipating some off turf races. I gave some off track picks if that’s the case and you can follow me on twitter for any updates throughout the day @cjfelts87. Hoping to catch a couple prices here, let’s get to it:
Race 1 pass
Race 2 Msw 78k State bred 3up, 1 ⅛ miles turf
5-2-7-6
#5 Jimmy Jazz just missed graduating after sitting a perfect trip last out, now 3rd off the layoff for Thomas Bush and gets Irad in the irons. Thinking he gets a similar ride with a good amount of speed up front. 6-1 ML. #2 Worth a shot is an early speed horse stretching out for Linda Rice, who’s 29% with that move. #7 Danfusi is another early speed horse, just his second career race and finished second coming out of a race that saw many of the same foes he’ll face today. Would use both underneath if you’re playing exotics.
Off Turf: No play
Race 3 Aoc 62.5k n2x F+M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
3-4-6-5
#3 Complicit has not raced since last October but with a likely field of 6 after MTO’s scratch and the others not super competitive this seems like a nice spot for Chad Brown to start her 2019 campaign. That said don’t expect much of a price. I’m intrigued by #4 Dream Passage, this 5 year old mare has won her last 2 over yielding courses, seems to run best at the route but I have a feeling she’ll show a decline in form this time around.
Off Turf: 1/1A-4
Race 4 Clm 12.5k 3up, 7 furlongs
8-3-9-7
#8 Lord Simba drew clear by 2 last out at Churchill, stretches out an extra furlong with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Eddie Keneally who does well with claiming repeaters. #3 Soul P Say comes in off a short layoff but is dropping off the claim for Robertino Diodoro who’s 36% with that move. #9 Big Muddy sat off the pace last out going a mile, thinking this is a little short for him but do like him to finish in the money.
Race 5 Msw 90k 2yo fillies, 5.5 furlongs
4-1-2-7
This is a field of 8 that are all first timers except for the two, and I’m gonna take a gamble with the first time starter #4 Lotta Ott. Steve Assmussen teams up with his #1 jockey in Ricardo Santana Jr who will be very aggressive with this mount, bullet workout of 46 and 4 from the gate, and has the pedigree to back it up- grandsire is Tapit and comes out of a Forestry mare. I also like #1 Apurate as another first time starter for Todd Pletcher who does very well with FTS (22%) and John Velazquez takes the call.
Race 6 Clm 50k 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
3-11-12-10
#3 Harv Won’t Tap has the best late speed of this bunch, I would expect him to save his energy and come flying late in the stretch. #11 Hay Dakota has also shown late speed, won last out going a mile and now stretches out a bit further. Thinking he’s gonna be on the pace early. #12 Applicator actually beat the 3 last time out and should show enough speed early to hang on for a piece.
Off Turf: 2-5-7
Race 7 Alw 80k n1x state bred F+M 3up, 5.5F turf
6-7-11-8
#6 Noble Jewel takes a step up in class after breaking her maiden as a FTS last out, recorded a 90 brisnet speed figure which is above par for this level, Joel Rosario has been hot recently and is one of the better turf jockeys on the nyra circuit. #7 Tzipi is also stepping up from the msw ranks for Linda Rice, always a positive sign to see her make an ambitious move up in class. #11 She’s Dreamin adds blinkers, was in the 6 path at the eight pole last race so this should help her, still managed to gain 2 lengths in the stretch to get fourth by a length and 3 quarters and should be flying late here.
Off Turf: 9-13-15-16
Race 8 Aoc 25k n1x state bred 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
2-6-3
#2 Dreamzapper appears to be in good form, won against beaten claimers then finished third at the starter allowance level, I like the fact that a top jockey in Luis Saez takes the mount for a low profile trainer in Matt Shrier who is not well known at the nyra circuit. 27% with shippers. #6 Dopus Point is looking for his first dirt win, don’t think that will happen here but he has 5 places in 7 starts, might see another here. #3 Big Gemmy comes from Finger Lakes for Linda Rice, distance is a bit of a question for me but Linda Rice runners usually have no problem with added distance.
Race 9 G3 Forbidden Apple Stakes 4up, 1 mile turf
3-10-8-5
Chad Brown has 2 runners in here that will probably take a lot of money in the 4 and the 6 and I’m going to try and play against them. #3 Hembree has shown the ability to close with fast fractions, lost by a neck in a grade 3 last out where he was able to close with a final quarter mile of 22 seconds. #10 Doctor Mounty will also be coming late, won a grade 3 at Gulfstream Park back in January and is coming off a blacktype stakes win at Laurel. #8 Qurbaan has finished second and third in Grade 1’s, I can forgive his race in the Manhattan after being the early speed at the longer distance, like him to finish in the money here.
Race 10 pass
Stats through previous 5 Daily Gallop writeups: 48-10-7-10 (21% win, 56% ITM)