Happy Friday from the Spa! Looks like there will be some rain overnight which may or may not take us off the turf, I’m at least expecting The Skidmore to stay on as a listed stakes but anything else may come off to preserve the course for the weekend. That said, a little rain shouldn’t stop us from cashing winners! Follow me on twitter for updates and scratches @cjfelts87.
Through 9 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 90-25-19-17 (28% win, 68% ITM)
Saratoga meet: $82 wagered, $92.80 won
Average ROI based off $2 win bet (42 races)- $2.26
Race 1 Msw 78k state bred 2 yo, 1 1/16 miles turf
1/1A-8-5-6 OFF 1/1A
I would play this first race the same way regardless of whether or not it’s on the grass since most all of these horses do have dirt form, and I’ll take a shot with the entry, specifically #1 Mo Ready. He finished second at the same level and last time in an off track race and that was with an awkward start. Expect improvement. Underneath I like #8 Cold Hard Cash, Lezcano stays on for Linda Rice, came out of the same race as Mo Ready where he finished third. Should be able to run close to par. #5 Turbo Drive adds blinkers with Dylan Davis, he’ll be involved early and has a good shot to hit the board.
Race 2 Clm 75k 3 yo, 7 furlongs
2-7-3-5
#2 Splicethemainbrace figures to have the lead early on and Carmouche is always dangerous with these front runner types. I would expect improvement second off the layoff, only concern is the distance but he does have the best pace figures of the bunch. #7 Johny’s Bobby is a Churchill Downs shipper, these CD shippers have been live against claimers here at Saratoga, may need a race off the layoff but I like his chances to hit the board. #3 Shock Therapy has some of the best speed figures of this troupe, last time facing faced open company for the first time at the starter allowance level, now gets Rosario aboard who won with him before and drops back in for the 75k tag.
Race 3 Msw 90k 3up, 1 3/16 miles turf
7-1-3-6 OFF no play
If this race stays on I like #7 Overbold to go wire to wire, he looks to be the lone front runner and I’m not sure if there’s enough closing speed to catch him. Thinking he gets a good trip with Junior Alvarado and can set easy pace fractions. If this race comes off I wouldn’t play, it’s a field of 8 to begin with and that could look like a field of 5 or 4 short prices after scratches.
Race 4 Mcl 25k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 5.5 furlongs
8-9-3-6
I like #8 Prairie Fire as a second time starter to show improvement, drops in claiming price in his first race of the year, even with the layoff I like his recent works and class drop with jock switch to Irad Ortiz is a positive sign. #9 Kathy’s Cause switches back to dirt after being unsuccessful on turf, finished second going 5.5 furlongs back in February, thinking Luis Saez gives her a good trip and she’ll be in the mix late. #3 Flattering Eyes sits at 12/1 ML because of the connections but don’t be fooled, bug rider Joey Martinez and Nick Zito teamed up to win with a 30-1 shot a couple weeks ago. Has the speed figures to be competitive and drops in claiming price, cannot count her out here.
Race 5 Aoc 62.5k n2x 3up, 6 furlongs
7-2-5-3
#7 Do Share comes in 3rd after the layoff after racing against graded stakes company, there’s enough speed in this field to give this stalker type a setup and he has some of the better ability times in the field. #2 Life in Shambles is an 8 year old gelding for Jason Servis, switches back to dirt and based on how this barn’s horses have been running recently you can’t count him out. #5 Mucho is another surface switcher he has been running against tougher and figures to get a good trip with Rosario aboard today.
Race 6 Clm 35k n3L fillies and mares 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
3-7-8 OFF no play
#3 Zabava has the best closing speed of this bunch and figures to get a good trip from Irad Ortiz, 1 1/16 miles seems like his preferred distance since being claimed by Michael Maker. If this race comes off, I wouldn’t play but I would say to play against the MTO #5 Carlisle Belle since I’m not sure if she can get the distance even if it is off track.
Race 7 Aoc 80k 4up, 1 1/16 miles turf
7-3-1-4 OFF 2-8
ON TURF #7 Zapperini adds blinkers again, this is a softer group he’ll face compared to the last 2 races since being claimed by Servis, barn is 40% when putting the blinkers back on and Irad stays on.
OFF Turf #2 Lunaire has won an off track race in the past, may be best to watch the toteboard on this one but prefer him over the MTO #8 Majestic Affair.
Race 8 Aoc 25k n1x state bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
5-4-6-7
This was a tough race and I ultimately sided with #5 Ratajkowski. I’m not sure he’s a true need the lead type since he is lightly raced and may be able to run a better race than his paper form might indicate. Last race speed figure was actually slightly better than today’s par and he only lost that by ¾ of a length. Must respect him. #4 Paved With Gold finished third last race behind Ratajkowski, adds blinkers and will be pressing the pace early on, maybe we even see an Irad-Jose exacta. #6 Singular Sensation has potential to improve as he switches back to dirt, another early/presser type that will be involved early.
Race 9 The Skidmore 100k 2 yo, 5.5 furlongs turf
6-2-5
#6 Montauk Daddy looks dangerous in this spot, 1st time Lasix after wiring the field to break his maiden, he’ll be on the lead early, Lezcano has a positive ROI on turf this meet and I think he’ll be able to run to par. #2 Proven Strategies fits the Woodbine shipper angle, I didn’t like him enough to put on top because he is a maiden, but has shown improvement and may be ready to take another jump up. #5 Frosted Rose has shown improvement through 2 starts, steps up with here with Joel Rosario who just won with her and needs a pace setup but I do like her chances to finish ITM.
Race 10 Mcl 40k state bred 3up, 1 mile turf
3-4-5-8 OFF 2-15