Saturday October 12th
Trainer stat of the week:
Bob Hess Jr. and Brian Koriner are the only winless trainers with over 10 starters thus far. Both bound to snap this streak.
Jockey Stat of the week:
After his Grade 1 win @ Keeneland, Flavien Prat is ice cold and due, going 0 for last 15 mounts (10 of these finished ITM). Rafeal Bejarano is 1 for his last 20 mounts and continues to be my favorite bet against.
Early Pick 5 Sequence:
Field size: 5x7x10x6x10 (21,000 combinations)
3 Dirt Sprints, 1 Dirt Route, 1 Turf Route
2 CLM, 1 MDCLM, 1ALW, 1MSW
Early Pick 5’s:
1,4/ 1,3,5/ 5 / 1,3,6/ 1,4,6,7,9,10 ($1 base $108)
1,3,4/ 1,3,5,6 /4,5,9 /1,6 /1,4,6,10 ($144)
Race 1: 5.5F DIRT CLM 16K
Projection: 4-1-3-5
Tough little $16k claimer to begin the card. Despite the thoro-graph figures which are far superior to the rest of this field (driven by ground loss) I am going to play against the ML favorite (#3)to kick off this card. Will be taking a chance on my main ticket with just two here in the #1 Square Peggy and #4 Marrazano. Top pick is the #4 Marrazano who will be run right back off the claim (loses shades) with no published works between barn switch. This horse looks the most likely to improve with the jockey upgrade to Cedillo, the trainer and equipment change. The #1 Square Peggy’s owner will net a loss on their $32k investment should the horse be claimed in this one for $16k, even with a win. These kind of moves are always concerning, but the fact this horse’s top fig is best in the field, is working out well in the morning with Edwin on board, and could be loose speed is enough for me to not want to leave off my ticket in this one.
Race 2: 1M DIRT CLM 10k
Projection: 3-1-5
Another claiming race here but atleast this one has a little drama build up to it. The #1 Twirling Tiger, who has been awfully popular in the claim box, was claimed away last out from Paymaster racing after Abel Cedillo rode the horse to victory in a 10k claimer at Del Mar. Was claimed by Jerry Wallace who owns and trains the horse for this one today. You will notice though, Cedillo doesn’t stick with the horse he won with, but instead keeps allegiance to Paymaster Racing who enters the #2 to face off vs. their previous horse just one stall over. Funny enough, Wallace replaces Cedillo with Martin Garcia, who had ridden the #2 Smokin B the last two times for Paymaster. Might be a fun little race within the race to watch. I like the early speed of #3 Top of the Game for my top pick in this one. He has used front end speed to get a loose lead in his last two for improved speed figures may have found his most effective style, where any further improvement should be enough against this bunch. #5 Sunset Seven is likely to improve here today, as the horse had a strong string of works going into his September comeback and since has had a couple more encouraging works in the morning that should have him fit and ready. I like his ability to stalk and pounce so if #1 and #3 battle up front, the #5 should be in the next flight ready to tackle the leaders.
Race 3: 1M TURF MDCLM 50k 3YO+
Projection: 5* – 4-9 Lone Speed Single
I’ll start with my play against horse, as I will be leaving #10 Fay Dan off all tickets. Something is not right with this $400k yearling purchase who was gelded in May before debuting, and since has put up 2 clunkers on dirt at the MSW level. The horse has some good Turf Pedigree, but now they drop to MDCLM after only 2 starts for a horse of this purchase price? Baffert gives Roman the rare call here, but not the jock you want on the Turf, only a 6% winner. Pass. This race really appears to have very little front end speed. As hard as it has been to go gate to wire on turf routes here this meet (3 for 23), it appears this could be the ideal situation for #5 Go for a Ride whom could get a boost of confidence on a loose early lead. I like the Blinkers Off move here, one that has been a positive ROI for Miller and winning at a 35% clip in 40+ starts. Miller also 35% on MSW to MCL drops in 37 starts. Single on main ticket. If you play multiple tickets or look to go deeper, the workout reports are glowing on the 12-1 #9 Muskoka who appears to have strong late kick. I don’t like that running style paired with Maldonado nor do I like Desormeaux off a 10 month break, but at 12-1 based on seen improvement for this level could offer value. #4 Speakerofthehouse has some very solid horses in his running lines, but this race shape could play against the strong late kick.
Race 4: 6F DIRT ALW50K N2X
Projection: 1-6-3 Three Horse Race
#3 Claudelle had an impressive gate to wire 11 length win last out, but I tend to downgrade big performances at LRC as the course is much different and its common to see a horse bounce off a Los Al top. Prefer the second choice with #1 Jaccat who has put up steady Thoro-graph figs and is 4 of 5 in finishing in the top 2 this year and retains Prat who is overdue for a win. With these two likely to take the majority of the betting money, the value could be seen on #6 Diamond of Value for Marquez and Fuentes. Thoro-graph fig top matches Jaccat and will be rounding into peak form with 4th start off the layoff and 2 maintenance jogs between starts.
Race 5: 5.5 DIRT MSW50k 2YO Fillies
Projection: 6-1-10-4 Value Play / Spread
Exciting field of promising 2YO Fillies here. Baffert enters two first timers here, where he is 42% (41 for 99) with first time starters this year. #7 Map Maker is a half sister of McKinzie and is sure to take money with this bloodline and connection, but I can’t get passed the string of C+ works (very odd for Baffert) so will not be a primary horse for me here. Top pick is 20-1 ML #6 Majestic Gigi. Went off at 35-1 on debut in a 5 horse field where Baffert’s Immediate impact went off at 2/5 to win by daylight, but this horse got off to a slow start and then was rushed up and quickly took the lead before fading on the turn to pressure. In looking deeper into this horse, she does have some distance pedigree and with aclean start may not have to be used so much early, where we could see this horse on or near the lead on the far turn, where you want to be at this distance. In addition, a string of B/ B+ work outs where improvement has been clear in the mornings and where on the most recent work he tracked and pounced to the lead in the 4F work. Many others to consider in here, including the #1 and #10 who debut for trainers known for their patience and not having first time starters fully cranked, but with the fast works and strong foundation, these could be ready to fire today. Must consider the other Baffert too #4 Crazy Speighty and O’Neill’s debuter #9 Roadrunner’s Honor off the recent bullet drill from the gate.
Late Pick 5 Summary:
With only a 9 race card today this makes Race 5 a key one for those playing both the early and late Pick 5 as it ends the early version and begins the late. If we can get Majestic GiGi home in this one, it could make for some excitement and big will plays, but this group has too much promise and after all, these re 2YO’s, to take a firm stand here and not spread. The key to this sequence will be the single in the finale, where I love Moody Jim today. This will allow some spreading, especially in races 5 and 6.
Late Pick 5’s:
1,4,6,7,9,10/1,2,5,7/1,3/ 2,6,7/ 8 ($1 base- $144)
1,4,6,10/1,2,5,7/1,3,6/ 2,6/ 1,8 ($96)
Race 6: 1M Dirt MSW50k 2YO Fillies Top Pick Value
Projection: 5-2-1-7
Another talented MSW group of 2 YO’s going a route of ground (1M on dirt). I don’t think we get the 6-1 ML, but top pick here is #5 Matera, the $1.4M Yearling purchase last year for Don Alberto Stable, and half sib to Not this Time and Liams Map out of 6x SW Miss Macy Sue. Today will get blinkers off and added ground with a jockey change to DVD. Solid “B” works consistently, but a little concerned with one missed work in the pattern. This one should absolutely move forward today, grab the value while you can. In addition, #2 Overjoyed, who debuted in Stakes race at 5-1 going long on Turf for Drysdale, and aggressive move, but is half to 4x SW War Story and should not have an issue on dirt, another expected improvement here and Mike Smith on board with a little extra motivation with a Baffert horse on his inside whom he once rode. Will also use that Baffert, #1 Gingham as her speed could control the race here where last out she felt the pressure the whole way from winner Seahawk Lisa. Finally, will also include the Godolphin bred Mandella horse, #7 Rare Find. Half to a Group 1 Ascot winner, draws Prat for the debut and comes in on a healthy foundation of works finished with a bullet blowout work last week, should be fit and ready to fire.
Race 7: 5.5F Turf CA BRED STK $100k
Projection: 3-1-6
AT first glance it appeared D’Amato had the nuts here with the inside and outside horses, but the more I dug, the more I really like #3 Gypsy Blue here as my top pick at 5-1. This horse gets the biggest benefit of the added ½ furlong here and has not had good trips in the last 3 (off slow, wide, wide). The pace scenario in this one could be interesting as either D’Amato or Queen Bee to you could be on the lead, and when there is no clear pace setter with a group that could contend for it, it could set up a contentious duel which would set it up for Gypsy Blue’s late kick (SY Sky out dueled Queen Bee to You on 1/26). Also makes position interesting on SY Sky, if he can not get the lead early, could see a lot of pressure while being down on the inside throughout, DVD will need to work out a trip. I feel the #1 is the most talented in the field and what a 2019 record (8: 3-5-0) and wont leave off my ticket, but this race shape is best for Gypsy Blue.
Race 8: 1M Dirt MSW50k 3YO+ Fillies/Mare
Projection: 2-6-7
Race 8: Hard not to be impressed with the debut of #2 Shear Class who was way back afterter being off slow and came home like a good one to pick up third. CRK and Sherrif’s very patient with their horses and this one looked professional in debut around the far turn and in the stretch. If she breaks, would expect her closer up than first start but should really love the added ground today. Key play. The favorite, #6 Unicorn is one to certainly consider as well, and I will play on backup tickets as three straight second place finishes in first 3 career races on Turf were impressive, but his daughter of Bodemeister has been relishing the dirt in the mornings and should be fit and ready to go today with Prat aboard. Only value to consider here would be the lone 4 YO in this group of 3’s, #7 Cover Version whose stateside debut was a 6F sprint following a string of 1 ¼M or longer routes overseas. Ran in the same race as #2 and got off to an even slower start and also came home strong in that sprint, will relish the added distance and if there is any pace upfront will have a chance late.
Race 9: 1M Turf OC40k N1X 3+ SINGLE
Projection: 8* -1—7
For a 1M Turf event, there sure is a lot of speed entered in this one, making me love #8 Moody Jim here even more than I did in his last race where I was quite bullish on him in defeat. But go back to the tape, not a great ride by DVD sitting 2-3W wide throughout and then being forced 5W into the stretch, lots of ground lost in a race where he finished 2 1/2 behind the winner Nolde despite what looked like DVD throwing in the towel with 100 yds left. Today we get a bit of an upgrade, especially with a Turf Router with Prat and a race shape that fits this talented 3YO. SINGLE on main ticket. On backup ticket, only other to consider for me is #1 Nolo Contesto, as I like that Hronis and Sadler stick to grass and should be in the second flight behind the pace duel. Put a line through the last after some bumper horses at the beginning and an overall tough trip, now gets shortened up and a softer group for a similar price. Value.