Sunday March 22nd
Weather Update: Rain will be coming later today, wit chance of rain growing by the hour starting around 2P. May be safe during the early Pick 5, but be ready to pivot late.
Early Pick 5:
5,10/ 1,2,4/2,3,4,6/2,6,10/ 1,3,4,5 ($144)
1,2,3,4,5,7,10/2,4/ 2,3,4,5,6/2,6,9,10/1 ($140)
Race 1: 5.5F TURF OC $20k N1X 3YO+ F&M CA Breds PACE: Fast and contentious
Projection: 10-5-7-1 Horizontal: A: 5,10 B: 1,7 C: 2,3,4 X: 6,8,9
Morning Line favorite, #10 Lofty is head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to speed figures in this one, however has two big things against her here, going against older for the first time and the outside post in the sprint. I have written about the 3YO and older races a few times, as this time in the year it is such an advantage to older horses as the 3YO’s are still maturing physically and figuring it out mentally. I also found it interesting that after winning an OC40k against open company, he drops into a soft spot here with an OC20k vs Statebreds. That’s a pretty big drop. Upon closer look though, the only other option in the near future from the condition book is an OC80k CA Bred for 3YO’s, a spot you think would make more sense, but purses are the same, so I am sure connections made the decision based on what spot they felt would be softer and give them a better chance to win. No tag on this one today. No doubt, needs to be included, but for the fact she runs versus older today, will protect. #5 Donut Girl is an intriguing one in here. If you watch replays of this one, you will see a few things. First, this one has heart and fights in the lane. Seems to take a little longer to get going, but then you see the jock change today to Maldanado, known for positioning horses on or close to the lead , where if this one uses her heart to fight and keeps similar late kick she could be dangerous. I think there is too much speed in here to think she will be on the lead, but if she is interested early and sits second flight could get a clean run at tiring leaders. There have been 50 turf sprints going into this weekend at SA, 14 have been won on the lead, 12 won from pressers, and 20 from horses midpack, where Donut Girl figures to be. #7 Smiling Annie, one of three Smiling Tiger’s in here (including Donut Girl), is the other mare in here with strong late kick, nearly matching Donut Girl’s final 3.5F time in her October sprint here. Since, has had troubled trips then went off odds on in last and came in 2nd to Querelle, who in her next out, raced against open company at the OC40k and came in 2nd by a nose (a nose that I will remember as I had her at 26-1). Her dam, Bootleg Annie was a turf route stakes winner and 14x winner overall on turf with 3 of those wins at sprint distances. She also peaked in her 5YO year, so could certainly see a big improvement on a clean trip from her daughter here today. #1 Cheap Cheap Cheap will likely be 15-1 or better in here and is another one that’s interesting. Using Formulator, O’Neill has only 4 horses that were given 180+days off and returned to allowance company in a turf sprint at the age of 3, the last two won (in 18’). Horses make big jumps from 2-3, so expect a big jump in speed here, and the two 47.3 second works in February show this won may flash some speed here today. I have always liked Square Eddie’s in turf debuts as well.
Race 2: 8F DIRT CLM $12.5k 4YO+ F&M PACE: Moderate, #2 possible lone
Projection: 4-2-1-6 Horizontal: A: 2,4 B: 1 C: 6 X: 3,5
#4 Majestic Diva ran 8 days back at he CLM 20k level, and didn’t run a lick coming off her 9-length romp in January. Horse was not used in the lane, so consider it a workout and a good sign that Bernstein runs her back here today. In watching the two replays, its clear the trips were very different, where in the winning effort, she sat a perfect pressing trip outside the early speed and pulled away in the stretch. There is no speed outside this horse in here today, could set up similar. Look out. #2 Tiz Wonderfully is the likely pace setter in this one, and due to lack of early speed, could get a loose and unpressured lead should Geo layoff with Majestic Diva. When Victor leads at first call, he wins 40% of the time, so even at 2-1, could get value if you feel good about this pace scenario. Maldanado jumps on another with no history of early speed in #1 Twitterati, a shipper from Turf Paradise. TuP horses have not faired well so far, but look at the trip from this one in the last race, wow. Still closes the final 1/8 in 12.5 despite loss of ground on the 8 wide move into the stretch. Last place finisher in that race came back to win next out.
Race 3: 7F DIRT MSW $55k 3YO CA Breds Pace: Slow to Moderate
Projection: 4-6-3-2 Horizontal: A: 4,6 B: 2,3 C: 5 X: 1
Tough one to cap here, and one I will be spreading. Top Pick in here will be the first time gelding, #4 El Diablo Rojo who has been flashing more speed in the mornings since the equipment change. Not a lot of apparent speed signed on in here so could get good position, and retaining blinkers is a good thing. Craig Lewis and Jorge Velez have been a strong combination this meet and still come with value. #3 Golden Sparkle has been moving well in the mornings and was impressive with his 47.4 second gate drill last month. Not usally a fan of works with 2 week spacing, but this is not uncommon with Cassidy. Cassidy not known to have them fully cranked, 1 for 8 with MSW starters in the last year. #6 Hammering Lemon didn’t give himself a chance on debut when he blew the start in a turf sprint. Adds blinkers today and worked heads up in last with winner Rookie Mistake. Doug is 23% and positive ROI when adding blinkers of late. #2 Audace comes into the race with the best speed figures and best morning work grades from @clockerandy. Notes from those works call out that this one should relish extra distance, so not sure the 7F is up to this ones target just yet, could still be working into form before getting that opportunity. Better value in here, but wouldn’t leave off the horizontal ticket either.
Race 4: 5.5F TURF MDCLM $50k 3YO+ PACE: Fast, but #2 may be speed of the speed.
Projection: 2-6-10-9 Horizontal: A: 2,6 B: 9,10 C: 3,8,11 X: 1,4,5,7
Another 3YO+ race, where I will lean towards the older. #2 Tailback had a nice debut, setting the pace after getting the outside post and then was headed on the far turn by Baffert’s Sky Jumper (who nearly won an allowance race yesterday) and showed some fight after dueling but gave way in final 100 yards. Not bad for a debut. The dam won 3x on dirt and hit the board in 6 of 7 of those tries, but also was a winner on turf going 3: 1-1-1. Malibu Moon’s are only 8% on turf sprints, but you have to like the speed and cutback for this one at 8-1. #6 Neutrino debuts for Sadler / Fuentes combo following some impressive morning works and sibling Big Runneur has won here at this distance and has not been off the board in 4 starts on turf. I like the work pattern here, with a fast gate work followed by two easy breezes, both where he looked strong. Note, Sadler is 0-14 with this ownership group, pressure’s on. #9 Uncle Ray debuts for Puype who is positive ROI on 1st time MSW starters in his last 30 starts at $3.37. Love the gate work on March 8th. The concern is that the dam was a turf router, often running long distances overseas, and siblings have all run routes as well going 4: 1-1-2. This one may have turf routes in her future with this one today for gaining experience and education. If has a lot of pace to run at, could come late. Might be overusing the “Maldanado on” angle, but we get another one here today with #10 Bedrock who has not shown much interest early in first two starts against MSW company. Gets the big drop here into claiming ranks and some more interest early could do the trick. Bonde is 4 for his last 7 when dropping from MSW ranks, and this one comes in here following a near 6 month layoff, where we should see good growth and maturity in this 3YO from the last time we saw him. Big task ahead as a 3YO off the layoff versus older, but certainly has a shot.
Negative note- #1 Jaxon Goldie, dam never ran on turf and siblings are 0-9 in turf sprints. Rail position is disadvantage and speed to the outside. Pass.
Race 5: 7F DIRT CLM $25K 4YO+ PACE:
Projection: 1-3-5-4 Horizontal: A: 1 B: 3 C:4,5 X: 2,6
#1 Conquest Cobra will be a key play for me today. This race is void of speed, and this one could get out off the rail fairly easy here today, and with Prat on board, I am confident the right trip will be found. Last race, was caught 5 wide early when a number of horses went for the lead, and at 1M at SA, that means being wide on that first turn. On the far turn he was forced to duck in after making a nice move and found the rail for the stretch where the top two dueled head to head in the middle of the track. Cutback to 7F should help here as well, where it may hurt the ML favorite Fabozzi who ran 2nd in the same last race but got a better trip and has been a router for his whole career.
Race 6: 8F TURF OC $80K N1X 3YO FILLIES PACE:
Projection: Horizontal: A: 3,4 B: 1 C: 2,6 X: 5,7,8
Very interesting to see the jockey choice on Peter Miller’s #12 Going to Vegas. Cedillo wins by daylight in the last, but moves to #1 Savvy Girl for Baltas, who he’s never rode. Prat, who rode her to victory two back chooses #10 Mind Out for Callahan. With Miller’s cold streak since all the indictments, you have to wonder if that played into the decision. In the end, you get Evin Roman a 5% winner (even worse on turf) and difficult post, I will pass. #10 Mind Out has been as short price in each of her two career starts and was impressive with late kick in her debut in a turf sprint win. Surprised they elected to go back to the route, as sibs have been very impressive with sprinting and considering the debut win. Was a $850k yearling purchase with loads of talent, but still needs to put it all together. Watch the replay of last, where she walked out of the gate and more impacting was her blowing the far turn as others were picking up momentum. Was impressive how she put together a re-rally through that all to finish within a length in a good 3rd. I like the addition of blinkers today, a sharp break and a smooth turn gets this one home today. #7 Shines Her Light makes her first start against winners after winning nicely in her stateside debut in February. Shipped in from Ireland where she ran against BC challenger Alligator Alley and she has really been working well of late and appears ready to handle her two turn debut. Can’t go wrong with Rispoli on the turf, especially routing. Dangerous in here. I am not a fan of this move to turf for #9 Storied Blue there is little evidence this one will thrive on this surface based on the pedigree. But, sometimes talent wins out and this one has been solid to begin her career with Donna Veloce, Classy Ruler, Paige Ann, and Rare Find all in her running lines. If going deeper than two here, would recommend. The only other to consider for me on deep tickets would be #1 Saavy Girl who would have the best opportunity to walk the dog on the front end, in what appears to be a slow pace scenario. Showed some fight in the lane when headed in numerous races, and Abel has a knack for keeping pace setters calm with enough left in the tank for a late run.
Negative notes- I do not like the Mike Smith pairing on Parkour.
Race 7: 8F DIRT OC $20K N1X 3YO+ CA BRED PACE:
Projection: Horizontal: A: 3 B: 2,6,7 C: 4,5 X: 1
Not a strong group of statebreds in here, #3 I Can Do This to me looks like a standout as it’s hard to trust a 5/2 ML favorite in the #2 when he has never run or trained on dirt and siblings are 0-10 on turf routes, bad favorite.
Race 8: 5.5F TURF $100K STAKES 4YO+ CA BRED PACE:
Projection: Horizontal: A: 3,4,9 B: 5,7 C: 1,2,8 X: 6,10
What a race, what a field. This is a very competitive race with a strong group of sprinters and a couple making the cutback to sprinting. Lets start with the speed of the speed in here, #9 Stealthediamonds. One of two ladies in this field taking on the boys. Take away two stumbles at the starts, this one would have a 4-race winning streak. There is speed to the inside but no one has 21.5 in here, so hard to see this one no being clear by the time they hit the turn. #4 Just Grazed Me is another where without being a step slow in the last would likely have won 4 straight races (3 stakes) and is the other mare taking on the boys. The winner of the last race, Stealthediamonds. Turf Sprints is what this horse does, dominating the female state bred division on this course so will be interesting to see if she can continue the success today in open company. This could be a good showdown here, with Just Graze Me likely sitting right off the pace to STD’s outside and a stretch running showdown could pursue. #3 Brandothebartender’s last effort was super impressive, and if it wasn’t for a beast named Murad Khan (who lost yesterday but watch the loss of momentum when switching lanes down the stretch) this one would have one easy. Watch the replay, horse was eyball to eyeball with the #1 in a mid pack duel before completely down shifting and blowing by rivals in the lane. For me, these top 3 need to be on tickets. #7 Lieteneant Dan tries turf sprinting for the first time. This reliable earner has hit the board in 8 straight races (6 were stakes), winning 3 of them. Dam was 1 for 4 in turf sprints, siblings are 0-8. Hard trying sort, but I’d recommend for verticals only. #2 Wound Tight’s cutback is a concern, this one has strong speed figures but nothing saying he will like this new distance. Wouldn’t be shocked with a win, but too short of a price for me.
Race 9: 8F DIRT CLM $12.5K N2L 4YO+ PACE: Slow/moderate but contentious
Projection: 5-6-3-1 Horizontal: A: 5,6 B: 3 C: 1,7 X: 2,4,8,9