June 12th, 2020
Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat has won 12 of his last 35 races in the last 10 days (34%).
Cold Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke has won 1 of his last 12 races in the last 10 days (8%).
Hot Trainer: Peter Miller has won 7 of his last 15 races in the last 10 days (47%).
Cold Trainers: Last 10 days; Doug O’Neill (0/12), John Sadler (0/8), Richard Mandella (0/4)
Weather: 84 degrees and partly cloudy. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 3YO OC 80k/N1X [F] – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #5 Affianced 5-2, #2 Avenue de France (Fr) 5-2, #1 Harvest Moon 8-1
#5 Affianced will look to wire the field to begin the card on Friday. Exits the maiden special weight ranks where she earned a 76 Beyer sprinting 5.5F on the turf. Keeps Prat aboard for their third race together, and Richard Mandella is 16% when switching horses from sprint to route. Has the ability to stalk to the pace as well if the speed to her inside gets the jump. She is the daughter of More Than Ready and has two siblings who are turf winners. #2 Avenue de France (Fr) in my opinion is the horse to beat. I am somewhat skeptical of the eight-month layoff, but she ships from France as a two-time winner where both wins came at the mile distance on turf. This is an advantage to be had over most of the group here. #1 Harvest Moon intrigues me at a price. She attracts Abel Cedillo for the mount and makes her debut at the mile distance vs winners. Simon Callaghan is 25% with first time starters and must think that this filly has a decent shot. I like the workout pattern, and in particular the bullet workout on May 23rd where she worked 4F from the gate in 46.4 seconds. Sire Uncle Mo is also 14% with first-time turf starters.
Race 2: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k – 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #5 Uncle Addouma 2-1, #1 Uncle Chuck 9-5, #4 Big Cheddar 5-1
#5 Uncle Addouma makes his second start for trainer Michael McCarthy and Flavien Prat gets the mount. Ran well on debut after a slow start and got up for fourth, earning himself a competitive 65 Beyer. Will more than likely improve second time out, and post position should be an advantage here. Has been working well and the experience will help. #1 Uncle Chuck makes his debut for Bob Baffert. Like Uncle Addouma, he is also the son of Uncle Mo who connects 15% of the time with debut winners. Sibling Maclean’s Music earned a 114 Beyer on debut, and his other siblings are also all winners. Lots of potential here. #4 Big Cheddar is a year older than the other horses in the field, which could be an advantage over these young three-year olds. Returns to dirt and stretches out. Worth including underneath.
Race 3: 3YO Clm 50000 [F] – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #8 Going to Vegas 9-5, #1 Too Much Heaven 8-1, #2 Madame Bourbon 6-1
Prat and Miller team up again on the #8 Going to Vegas. She is the horse to beat in this field, and this jockey/trainer combo is winning at a 30% clip at Santa Anita. She drops down from the allowance ranks to face much easier, and out of 5 starts she is 2/1/1. Obviously, she likes the distance and she likes running at Santa Anita. Should be able to get a nice trip stalking the pace. #1 Too Much Heaven returns to her preferred surface and distance in today’s race, and she ran first and second in her only two turf starts prior. Simply a return to her form in February would be enough to be very competitive here. #2 Madame Bourbon makes logical sense underneath as she will be closing late. Hasn’t ran well since January but could be a player if she can work out the kinks.
Race 4: 3YO+ Clm 20000 – 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
Pace Prediction: Slow-Moderate
Selections: #2 Conquest Cobra 6-5, #1 Camino de Estrella 2-1, #3 Blame It On Kitty
The deserving favorite #2 Conquest Cobra will likely aim for the lead and has a shot to get loose as there is not much pace in this race. If the #1 and #5 decide to contest the lead, Conquest Cobra has shown the ability to win off the pace as well. Seems like Prat’s race to lose. #1 Camino de Estrella will make his first start for trainer Steve Knapp, who wins 24% of the time off the claim. Has room to improve second off the layoff and will be the one who is most likely to catch Conquest Cobra should he falter late. #3 Blame It On Kitty was the only other horse who stuck out to me here. Ran third in an allowance race going 1 ¼ miles in February and received a 70 Beyer. He likely needs more pace to close into, but still stands a decent shot to hit the board.
Race 5: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: N/A
Selections: #9 Tropical Terror 3-1, #8 Gambini 6-1, #3 Rawhide Rawlins 4-1
#9 Tropical Terror is due for a victory here. This gelding has hit the board at this distance and surface in five consecutive starts. Tropical Terror has been forced to race 3-4 wide in multiple past races, but he attracts jockey Mike Smith and will certainly get a better trip. #8 Gambini finished just behind Tropical Terror for third on May 17th, and has a right to improve second off the layoff in the third start of her career. Jeff Mullins wins 19% of the time with this move. Might need a bit more pace in this race to close effectively. #3 Rawhide Rawlins stretches out in his second start for trainer Steve Miyadi, and he does well with this move. Exiting a 5.5F sprint where he raced 5 wide in lane, but closed strong. The added distance should help here.
Race 6: 3YO+ Clm 12500N2L – 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #5 Knifes Edge 4-1, #2 Abusive Gary 8-5, #1 Go for a Ride 3-1
Race 6 will likely have a very fast pace, as I can see multiple horses going for the lead. I will try to beat the favorite here with #5 Knifes Edge. He drops from the claiming 25000N2L level for his second start off the layoff. Likely has room to improve, and from a pace scenario he fits the bill. #2 Abusive Gary drops in class from the OC 40k level, and also makes his second start off the layoff. He has the most consistent dirt figures and is worth taking a shot with him as he tries the level for the first time. His most recent workout on June 7th looks sharp. #1 Go for a Ride will handle this one-mile distance easily. Draws the rail position today and gets blinkers, so I expect him to gun for the lead. Out of nine starts, Ryan Hanson wins 56% of the time, so this is a must use horse for me. If Go for a Ride’s turf form can translate to dirt, he will be very tough to beat.
Race 7: 3YO+ OC 62k/N2X – 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #3 Querelle 5-2, #4 Great Return 8-5, #5 Sold It 5-2
Small field here in this 5.5F sprint and multiple horses coming off long layoffs. I like #3 Querelle here, as she has been firing recently at this distance. Is 2/3 sprinting 5.5F, and her only loss came by a neck. Flavien Prat gets the mount, and I expect her to continue to improve here. Only concern is there might not be enough pace for her to close into today. #4 Great Return makes her great return from a nine-month layoff. Her prior form would suggest she should win easily here. The layoff is a concern for me, but Richard Mandella can win with this move. Finally, #5 Sold It cuts back from the one-mile distance, and will likely be forwardly placed. This could be an advantage as the only other potential front-runner is Great Return to her inside. Trainer Doug O’Neill does well when moving from routes to sprints, but he has been rather cold recently so I will leave underneath.
Race 8: 3YO+ Md 20000 [F] – 6.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #8 Suezaaana 12-1, #9 Full Eclipse 7-2, #2 Kirsch Truffle 5-2
#8 Suezaaana returns to Santa Anita after partaking in a few quarter horse races at Los Alamitos. Raced at this same level and distance on January 3rd and ran a respectable second. Has likely improved since then, and I think she might have more speed than people are giving her credit. #9 Full Eclipse drops out of the maiden special weight ranks, and is entered for a tag for the first time. The class drop could be what this filly needs. Raced second at this distance on debut, and the cutback from a mile my help here. #2 Kirsch Truffle had an awkward start last out at this level on May 15th, but was still able to get up for second. Will likely improve here, but may not be worth a shot at a short price. I also want to point out that the #6 Elemental 5-1 has an early TimeformUS Pace rating of 116, and this absolutely jumps off the page. She will likely fade mid race and be caught, but if this filly can get enough of an early lead she may be gone.