Race 1
pass
Race 2
2-4-6
#2 Victory Element: This Son of Pioneer of the Nile has 2 races better than anyone in this race. so do you trust the Beyers or that Bob Baffert is zero for his last 12. I think he gets the right trip today behind the two speeds and gets it done or a good jockey-trainer combo hitting at 41%. Don’t take this colt at to low a price.
#4 Mantaray Island: This colt cost a boatload almost 1.5M he has a sib that won 3/4 of a million and now gets switched from Pletcher to Doug O’Neil. O’Neil Is good with horses in there first start with the new barn. This colt showed good speed like our other choices and
Race 3
6-1-7
#6 Soothing: ok call me stubborn Mike Smith horse on the rail will take all the money so I ended up on this one in hopes the stretch will do some good she showed good speed on debut and ran a good second. The negatives are the speed figure and also the trainer isn’t that good of this type of layoff
#1 Slewgoodtobetrue: Both races tower over this field but now she stretches out for the first time. Mike Smith staying on is positive but the barn has been pretty cold to start the meet. she did improve her early speed in her second race.
Race 4’pass
race 5
8-5-3
#8 Ohtani: Lost all chance at the start when pinched at the start which is different from breaking slowly so maybe from the outside this one can show more speed. Trainer Bill Spawr has good numbers with layoff second-time maidens sprinting on the dirt 30% in a 10 start sample.
#5 Gran Martillo: some of the bad news first looks like that first quarter was pretty slow in his last race so with some faster early types he may find himself with too much to do turning for home. I like that he took some money in the debut and that he has a monster improved workout going 48’4 a 2-second improvement. If the Beyer improves the normal 10 points from first to the second start and the favs both don’t take to the surface this one could spring the upset.
#3 Drink: Improbable looking too much into it this horse also improved in his latest work an even better 3 seconds also going at 5 instead of 4 furlongs. he wasn’t bet in his debut but now takes the drop and has blinkers being put on and did show some speed in his debut against better. Trainer David Hoffman 2 wins so far have both come in maiden claimers
Race 6
pass
Race 7
4-5-7
#4Allaboutaction: I Love that for a claimer he has more wins then underneath finishes. He has never been out of the exacta at Santa Anita and does well at the distance too. They finally drop him into a regular claiming race where he was a beast last year running low 90 Beyers. The last two racing lines don’t do much to the naked eye two off the board finishes but one was on the wrong surface and the other was an allowance race so maybe he was outclassed just a bit. He is now back at the right track and distance if he can get 9-5 or higher
#5 Italiano: He has been working lights out on the workout tab 4 fantastic works in a row and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is a solid 20% with this type of comeback horses. still lightly raced at 4 he has done well in limited claiming type races as well with a win and a close second last time out at Delmar. I do like the jockey switch from a cold rider to a hot apprentice.
Race 8
5-4
#5 Show It N Moe It: both horses here have a good shot I like that this one seems to do better against the stake competition and might have a bit more heart than my second choice. She has won off a layoff before and is also HFC and distance specialist 4-5 ITM. She also last year won early in the year so maybe she has a certain part of the year she can roll in.
#4 S Y Sky: Lightly raced she never improved in here 4-year-old speed figures as she only raced 3 times so maybe she is a bit of an ouchy horse. NIce improved work should have her on her toes today but the M.L. I think should probably be switched with our top pick is the 8-5 favorite.
Race 9
pass