June 19th, 2020
Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat has won 17 of his last 44 races in the last 10 days (39%).
Cold Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke has won 1 of his last 22 races in the last 10 days (5%).
Hot Trainer: Peter Miller has won 8 of his last 17 races in the last 10 days (47%).
Weather: 63 Degrees Foggy. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k– 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #3 Eastern Ocean 7-2, #2 Tallien (Ire) 12-1, #5 Tapitution 5-1
#3 Eastern Ocean makes his fourth start returning to the same level and distance on the turf. Keeps Abel Cedillo aboard, and I expect large improvement for trainer Mark Glatt who wins 22% when second off the layoff of 45-180 days. Recent June 14th bullet workout also shows that this colt should be ready to fire. #2 Tallien (Ire) cuts back from a mile and an eighth for trainer Matthew Chew, and is an interesting price play based off the replay of his last race. He did not get he best of trips as he was swung very wide on the turn while being bumped. He still managed to close from 7th to 4th. #5 Tapitution makes his first start for trainer Bob Baffert who is winning 29% of the time with firsters. Purchases for $350k shows that there should be some potential here. Recent gate workouts show that this colt is sharp, and I would not leave off my tickets. Also #6 Lane Way will be the likely favorite in this race as he stretches out and tries turf for the first time. Has failed to find the winners circle in four starts, but he keeps Prat aboard so perhaps he has a shot. I will let him beat me here.
Race 2: 3YO+ Clm 12500N2L [F] – 7F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Slow
Selections: #4 Violent Speed 5-2, #5 Pasito 3-1, #6 Sindy’s Revenge 4-1
#4 Violent Speed returns back to Santa Anita where she ran her best speed figure wiring the field going 6.5F. Drops out of allowance levels from Golden Gate and returns to a more realistic level. I like that Abel Cedillo gets the mount in a lackluster field. #5 Pasito broke her maiden going one mile on the dirt at Santa Anita in March. Has the best Beyer figure in the field and a return to that effort would be tough to beat here. #6 Sindy’s Revenge has the largest shot to improve as she makes her third star of her career. Workouts are not the best, but she is worth a shot trying the level for the first time.
Race 3: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #9 Tiberius Mercurius 5-2, #6 War Path 4-1, #3 Fravel 12-1
#9 Tiberius Mercurius makes his first start under new trainer John Sadler who wins 17% with this move. The deserving favorite here, as his Beyer figures tower over the field. Comes off an eight-month layoff, but this does not worry me as Sadler is proven with this move (24%). #6 War Path makes his third star routing on the turf for formidable jockey/trainer combo of Flavien Prat and Bob Baffert. Has huge right to improve off the four-month layoff. Worked an impressive 4F in 46 seconds on June 14th. I suspect this horse will be loaded. #3 Fravel is an interesting price play at 12-1. Makes his first start since February but returns to the same distance and level. Was gelded back in April and attracts Abel Cedillo. Certainly, has the capability to hit the board for respected trainer Richard Mandella.
Race 4: 2YO Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 4.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: N/A
Selections: #5 Big Fish 4-1, #6 What’s Up Surfer 2-1, #4 Lemon Zinger 3-1
#5 Big Fish for jockey Umberto Rispoli and trainer David Hofmans makes his first start and is sired out of Mr. Big. This is an angle I have been playing heavily, as his two-year olds have been firing first out (30%). Has been working well in the morning as well. #6 What’s Up Surfer is very classy as the sire has six stakes wins, and dam has produced four winners out of five. Prat and Miller team up here, and they have been crushing Santa Anita at 33%. #4 Lemon Zinger is worth including as well for trainer Luis Mendez, who has won multiple 2YO races already this meet. Worked a FAST 3F from the gate in 34 seconds, and has a shot to wire the field.
Race 5: 3YO Md 40000 – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #2 Fengari 5-2, #3 Sly 3-1, #5 Most Sandisfactory 4-1
#3 Fengari is a horse we liked on May 29th, and he ran well for second sitting just off the leader. That was his first start since about a five-month layoff which was encouraging. He keeps Reuben Fuentes aboard here and drops down from the Md 62500 level. Has a very good shot of winning here. #3 Sly returns from a three-month layoff and stretches back out to a mile after spriting 5.5F in March. Trainer Richard Mandella drops Sly from the special weight to maiden claiming ranks, and Mandella is 3/8 with this move. Distance should not be a problem, as Sly obtained his best Beyer (80) going a mile and an eighth a year ago at Santa Anita. #5 Most Sandisfactory returns second off the layoff for trainer Peter Miller and Jockey Flavien Prat. I am somewhat skeptical as he tries the distance for the first time, but I would not fade this jockey/trainer combo.
Race 6: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 6F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #1 Bluegrass Patriot 5-2, #2 Brace for Impact 9-5, #6 With Due Cause 4-1
#1 Bluegrass Patriot makes the second start of his career as the son of G1 stakes winner Bluegrass Cat. Ran a decent race last out on May 24th and finished a respectable fourth out of ten. We can rightfully expect improvement second time out here, and especially for trainer Mark Glatt who bats 29% with second time starters. I prefer him to the morning line favorite #2 Brace for Impact. Brace exits the same race as Bluegrass Patriot, and he ran second and obtained a 74 Beyer vs the 69 of Bluegrass Cat. Brace certainly has a shot here, but he has yet to find the winners circle in five starts, so I will try to beat him here. #6 With Due Cause makes the second start of his three-year old career, and I also expect improvement here as well. He closed late to get up for third last out, and the added half a furlong should help his cause.
Race 7: 3YO+ OC 20k/N1X [S] – 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #3 Smiling Annie 3-1, #6 Noor Khan 4-1, #7 Harper’s Gallop 5-2
#3 Smiling Annie returns as a last out winner and figures to be on the lead almost by default in this race. Has won both on the lead and sitting just off, and Mark Glatt runs this mare back just six days after her last race where she won easy. Glatt does not do this often, so he must feel that Smiling Annie has a strong shot of winning here. #6 Noor Khan makes the switch to turf and should improve second off the long layoff for trainer Phillip D’Amato (26%). D’Amato is not great when switching horses to the turf, but Noor Khan keeps Prat aboard for this race which is intriguing. Recent bullet workout last week shows that she should be ready to go. #7 Harper’s Gallop cuts back to 5.5F from a mile where Prat helped this filly win and obtain her career best Beyer of 81 on the turf. It is interesting that Prat chooses to ride the #6 over the #7 here, so I will leave underneath. I feel like Harper’s Gallop may want longer.
Race 8: 3YO+ Md 50000 [S] – 6.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #4 Grazed My Biscuits 5-2, #6 Hot Socks 3-1, #3 Malakai Moxie 9-5
#4 Grazed My Biscuits makes his first start in a field with not much to like for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Drayden Van Dyke (14%). Miller is a great dirt sprint trainer, and sire Grazen is 20% with dirt sprints. Additionally, out of 42 starts, Grazen’s offspring win 23% when debuting as a three-year-old. Recent gate workouts look sharp enough and this gelding will likely be competitive here. #6 Hot Socks ran second at this level sprinting 5.5F here on May 31st. It was not the best of races, but perhaps he needed a race off his eight-month layoff. #3 Malakai Moxie has the best speed figures of the bunch and Flavien Prat gets the mount, but the issue is that this horse’s best races come on turf. Trainer Phillip D’Amato is only 12% when switching horses from turf to dirt. His other dirt races aren’t encouraging, so I will leave underneath.
Race 9: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Slow/Moderate
Selections: #3 On Mars 9-5, #9 Bella D 5-1, #4 Rockie Causeway 4-1,
#On Mars is overdue to break her maiden. Ran well on her return off the layoff and closed well to lose by just over a length to Goodtingscomeinpink, who just ran again on June 5th and obtained a 77 Beyer. On Mars has had two recent bullet workouts since her last race and will be very tough to beat as the deserving favorite. #9 Bella D exits the same race as On Mars, where she started on the lead, dueled and faded late. Mike Puype is 24% when second off layoffs of 45-180 days, and Bella D could find herself as the pace setter again here. Finally, #4 Rockie Causeway makes her first start for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Flavien Prat. Recent workouts look decent, but this is a tough spot for her first start. I like that Flavien Prat is the jockey, and he is too hot right now to not include.