Sunday March 8th
Big Cap Day Recap:
There was no article last week, as it was another uninspiring card of short fields, but what a difference one week made. Friday through Sunday this weekend has brought a different story and renewed excitement amongst players and horseman, so fingers crossed this was not just a one week spike and congrats to track leadership for what was a great Big Cap Day. I had the opportunity to head out to Santa Anita yesterday, and despite low on track attendance, I have to hand it to leadership for their efforts of making it affordable for fans and newbies. A table in Turf Terrace was basically free, as ou got a $40 credit towards F&B for a $45 ticket purchase, and a complimentary drink and program. This area was buzzing, so much so service was not good, but overall not enough to dampen the experience. I navigated a difficult early pick 5 sequence to a $5.5k win, but was more exciting as I was spread to 7 of the 10 horses in the final leg, with 4 of them representing $20k+ paydays, including Next Shares who gave me a thrill down the stretch, but my program whipping wasn’t enough to get him across the line. Then we saw the unveiling of Gamine, you can just tell this one is something VERY special for Baffert by the way he talks about her. She galloped to an easy win in the only short field of the day. Then came Authentic’s turn, I have been very high on this horse and was again yesterday. So impressive, never was a doubt as throughout you could just tell there was so much left in the tank by how easy he was going. Can he get 10 furlongs? I don’t know, breeding not screaming for it, but this one is a star nonetheless. The Big Cap field took a hit with the scratch of Gift Box, but when Sadler had Rosario take the mount on Combatant, I knew I was going to be on him. Was pumped with the 9-1 and after the race looked down with confidence at my Late Pick 5 ticket that was spread 4 x 4 in the final two legs and was looking at a chance at taking down both the early and late. Unfortunately, the #4 in race 11 brought that to an end, but not without a thrill as the #6 for Peter Miller, whom I did have, came storming home late to miss by a nose at 26-1. Brutal, as should he have gotten up would have been alive to a pool scoop on two horses in the last, along with the eventual winner #1 Speakerofthehouse. Tough way to end the day, but exciting and a day to remember for sure.
Early Pick 5:
3,4,5,7/1,2,4/7/1,2,3,4,5,8/1,3,4 ($108)
3,4,7/ 1,4/3,4,7/2,3,5,8/3,4 ($72)
Race 1: 9F TURF MSW $55k 3YO PACE: Potential Lone Speed (#4)
Projection: 4-3-7-5 Horizontals: A: 4 B: 3,7 C: 5 X: 1,2,6,8
A long turf journey for this maiden bunch to kick off the card. For this type, I am looking for improving types who have evidence of wanting longer, but can’t get passed the #4 Exhort here as an interesting lone pace potential. Lone speed, when allowed to settle comfortably at these longer distaces can be dangerous, look at She’s our Charm yesterday. Exhort made his debut at 5.5F on turf just two weeks back at Golden Gate and already wheels back after the van ride to Santa Anita for a 9F turf route. An interesting move for sure, and looking at his first race, he pressed red-coded fractions early before fading late, showing some hints that early speed is present. Now, using Formulator, looked up O’Neill first time turf at 9+ furlongs and we get a 0-15 result, with only one hitting the board. Not good. But the timing of this move to me says intention, and there is some strong bloodline here with the dam being a half to Cambier Parc. ML Favorite #5 Goalie is a half to the multiple GSW Midnight Storm and has been 2nd in two straight at this condition, the last being at this 9F distance. Was not moving smoothly in the last race, and despite the “steadied” designation in the race notes, looked like it was his own doing. Has shown some nice late kick in the morning, but appears to tug early in the afternoons. With Prat aboard, it eases some concern but this one to me is a vulnerable favorite, yet, one I’ll use defensively. Look at the board on this one as we get closer to post time, if chilly not a good sign for this owner/trainer combo. #3 Pure Carmine went off at 78-1 on debut, but from the 11 post for a first time Drysdale not totally surprising. It could create value here though, as this one missed the break but then traveled well before being shutoff in the lane. Works in the morning are improving, and like the note from @clockerandy on 2/26 “Long bodied sort switched leads on cue going 25.0, 49.3 out well in 102.0. Inching forward; any added distance helps.—Grade: B-“ His sibling, Dulverton Darling won here at SA on turf at this distance with a thrograph figure that would win here today. Will also use #7 Heywoods Beach for the same connections of the Big Cap winner from yesterday (Hronis/ Sadler/ Rosario). This one has some pedigree with sibling Stephanie’s Kitten a BC Filly and Mare Turf winner and 11x winner overall. Works have been lackluster, but maybe will be a different story when he hits the grass. First two races were against some strong next out winners.
Race 2: 5.5F DIRT ALW $50K 4YO+ PACE: FAST and Contentious
Projection: 1-4—2 Horizontals: A: 1 B: 4 C: 2 X: 3,5,6
Mark Glatt enters two in here today and both appear to be pace contenders and appear to be the top two betting choices. Something doesn’t seem right though, Glatt who owns #3 Fratelli would not want a pace duel here, and Gate Speed may need the lead from the rail and his only win has been ingate to wire fashion. Recent works have not been great for Fratelli who comes in off a 4+ month layoff from a MD20k race in which Glatt claimed him. From my lens, feels like Fratelli needs one and would be a safe place to try some new tactics. His 8.5 length romp on debut is going to attract a lot of betters, but this is a big jump up in class and in looking at the field he beat in November, only 2 of the 10 he beat have broken their maiden since, and each of those are currently in low claiming ranks. Bad favorite here that I will toss. Much prefer #1 Gate Speed who was the favorite last out at this level at 6.5F and sped to lead before getting caught late, but was game in defeat. Ironically enough, it was another Glatt horse that beat him in that effort. Don’t piss off your owners again here Mark. Cutback will be big here, this one will be tough. #4 Afternoon Heat could be the beneficiary of any pace meltdowns. Looks like #2 will go early and if he is able to apply pressure to #1 Gate Speed, then I like the #4 to pick up the pieces.
Race 3: 7F DIRT CLM $10K 4YO+ Pace: Moderate to fast, potential lone speed #7.
Projection: 7-4-3 Horizontal: A= 7 B= C= 3,4 X=1,2,5,6
#7 Papa Turf, Single. Speed of the speed here, and When Rockingham and Miller claim a horse, even a 9YO, expect some type of improvement. Papa Speed has always been a salty competitor in these low level claiming ranks, where in the past year he has run 12 times with 8 hitting the board and never worse than 5th (insert small fields joke here). When this owner/trainer combo are off the claim at the claiming level they hit at 33% and positive ROI. Miller also found a soft spot, where we have all but one horse in here that are normally racing at this level or below and struggling to find the winners circle and with little evidence showing improvement. The lone class dropper is Shades of Victory who ran in the Cary Grant Stakes at Del Mar but has been showing declining figures and would need to return to where he was in early 2019 to compete here today against Papa Turf.
Race 4: 8F TURF O/C $62.5k N2X 4YO+ F&M PACE: Moderate to Fast
Projection: 5-8-2 Horizontal: A= 2,5,8 B=3 C=1,4 X=6,7
Solid field in the 4th where I am happy that I was shallow on earlier legs as this would be one to spread. Honestly, I am only able to “X” out the 6 and 7 in here, as all others will be competitive. I’m going back to the well with my top pick, #5 Don’t Blame Judy. Watch the replay of her last, she was a lot to handle early on, the note of “pulled” is an understatement. Her antics early certainly cost her a length or more, and ultimately the win. It is interesting that we see DVD on board here instead of going back to Victor after Rispoli jumped to Dogtag. If Drayden can settle her, look out late as she will be coming. If you want to narrow down the ticket, I would recommend booting the favorite, but would not blame you for using defensively as I may as well. The reasons to toss are fairly obvious, Mandella off the layoff, horse has not shown anything special on firm turf. The fact she is a former Chad Brown, and a with powerhouse owner LNJ Foxwoods will attract action, but IMO, no value here. #8 Sold It went into her last race off B+ morning works and was bet down to favoritism. In that race was the inside in a duel before shaking away in the stretch. Appeared to then throttle down, and was caught at the wire. Mario is one that prefers the outside and the last two was not able to get to that position, today will due to post and will need to keep this one engaged throughout the stretch, a big contender though. I am curious what tactics Rosario is going to take on #2 Col. Creed who comes in off the layoff for Baltas. We know Rosario is one that often takes back, is only on the lead at 1st call 11% of the time, but when he is, he wins at a 38% clip. Col. Creed has only won in gate to wire fashion. Baltas 5 for 11 when having horses return to turf routes off a layoff, and this one has a good foundation of works with most recent showing good speed.
Race 5: 8F DIRT MDCLM $20K 3YO+ F&M PACE: Moderate/ Contentious
Projection: 3-4-1 Horizontal: A: 3,4 B: 1 C: 2,6 X: 5,7,8
Top pick is #3 Kirsch Truffle, who returned to the races 3 weeks back following a 9+ month layoff and was bet down to 2-1 second choice. She blew the start and was rank early before catching up to the pace and being in a short inside duel. Settled then nicely before the winner made her move on the turn and Kirsch was again in an inside duel. Not the ideal trip off a layoff. Has had 2 recorded works since, including a 3F blowout at SLR before shipping up to SA last week. Miller is 22% with 2nd off the layoff and the small class drop should be plenty enough for this one to be very tough in here. #4 Pasito, the ML favorite returns to SA where she came in 2nd in October at this level. Take note of Kruljac’s recent sprint to route angle, 28% winners with a $5.60 ROI in 18 starts. Krujac has also found a match with Rispoli, sending 6 out of 15 to the winners circle. #1 Jemsek returns quickly from a week layoff, where she last ran at Golden Gate. That’s a quick turnaround. But Eddie Freeman, who owns, bred, and trains the horse is dangerous when dropping them from MSW to MDCLM, hitting at 24%. Freeman adds blinkers today in hopes this or the massive class drop wakes this one up.
Late Card Quick thoughts:
Race 6: Competitive group, and this is the 2nd wave of the same condition run in race 1. Don’t dismiss the #9 on the outside at 20-1, has natural speed and could get the jump or position on the only other pace in the race , the #5. The #1, #2, #7, #9 all very playable here.
Race 7: My goodness, lots of early speed. This is going to be a fun one. While most will single Donna Veloce, I see this as wide open and primed for chaos.
Race 8: Playing in the SA Contest today so will hold this one close to the vest. Good luck today!