First and foremost, congrats to @Nikki23sam and @Smoothturn2 for their victories in yesterdays final of Season 1 of The Daily Gallop Handicapping Tournament. Season 2 begins next week and has expanded to 40+ cappers including some of the industries big names. Looking forward to another season, and will be plotting my revenge on @smoothturn2 who beat me in the finals 😊
I really like the early Pick 5 sequence here today, with some strong opinions (lone A’s) and a few potential lone speed situations. Will be playing the sequence a few ways on weighted tickets, in hopes to hit this a few times should these opinions be right. Best of luck to all today.
Best Bets Today: R1 #1 Raul Rosas (6-1), R9 #7 Carerulean (10-1)
Race 1: 5.5F TURF OC $20k N1X 3YO+ F&M CA Breds PACE: #1 Speed of Speed
Projection: 1-3-8-9 Horizontal: A:1 B: 3,8,9 C: 2,5,7 X: 4,6,10
The 5.5F turf course at Sant Anita can be difficult for those that draw the 1 hole. The post is winning at 6% this year, and since the closing of the downhill, has been a tough spot to be. Where it doesn’t have as much impact is on those that get to the lead quickly an that’s exactly what we should see from #1 Raul Rosas in the opener. Speed of the speed in here from the small winning barn of Dean Pederson. Pederson is hot, 5 for 14 this year and we see his ace rider Tiago get the call again where together they are 8 for 22 (6 of those wins with star Fashionably Fast). The last time this horse was on the 5.5 Turf here at SA was a $25k claiming event with a salty field of 12 in February of this year. In that race, he was challenged for the lead but Tiago never panicked and set strong fractions of 21.9/ 44.3 while finishing with gas in the tank and galloping out nicely. Not seeing anyone in this field that can go sub 22/45, so thinking Tiago will have plenty left here to finish. On Thorograph speed figures, this one is 3 points + the best over the rest of the field when comparing tops on turf. This is a real nice one and would be surprised to see anything close to ML odds. #3 Unbridled Ethos returns off a near year layoff and Harrington’s workout reports are buzzing on this one with back to back B+ works. Thorograph speed figures 2nd best in this bunch from last year, so with the strong works can presume this one is primed to improve. Horse attracts Irad who flew in to ride Chad’s horse on Saturday to a nosehair defeat. Note, Irad has never rode for Mullins, interesting. #8 Fly the Sky is one of a few 3 YO’s in here vs older, but this one is not stranger to racing against tough competition. This state-bred last raced against Margot’s Boy who won impressively on Saturday in an OC80k against open company, where he finished 3rd beat less than 2 lengths. 2 races back he won, in a race that came back strong with 2 next out winners, 2 seconds, and a third, as well as Commander who last finished a nice 2nd in an OC80k event. He should be close and could get first run on the #1 if pace tires. #9 A Man’s Man gets Rispoli (who jumps off the 8) comes off an impressive 3+ length win on this course at 5.5F in March and has been working well, will be fit and could improve again. Sports some of the best late splits in this bunch, would expect ot be coming late. From a value standpoint, note the price in the same race as Jetovater, a race where he drew the rail, got off slow, was forced wide, steadied, and still finished with interest. Jetovator had a perfect trip. If you don’t single the #1 , I recommend using all four of these horizontally.
Race 2: 6F DIRT CLM $12.5k 3+YO Fillies PACE: contentious if no scratches.
Projection: 2-6-4-5 Horizontal: A: 2,6 B: 4 C: 1,5 X: 3,7,8,9
Trainer Jeff Metz duo entered (Saratoga West with ownership of both) are exiting Los Al 870yd sprints and would show speed early. With no other heavy early speed, you would have to think Saratoga/Metz decide to scratch one of them here in hopes to set a lone speed scenario. Regardless, not seeing either of these get 6F successfully versus this bunch. #2 Ruby Bradley could get a good trip here right off the pace if they show a bit more early speed on the cutback. Drops to lowest class, last out was odds on in a 16k claimer 4+ YO race. Best Thorograph figure on dirt of group, but does need to reverse trends to get back there. #6 Mongolian Window returns to dirt for her first time since debut (22 straight turf). Sibs and dam exclusively turfers as well. Drops in class here as well and comes into the races off strong works on the main track where she was never set down and showed good early speed in each 48 second work. #4 Madame Barbairan is a first off the claim for Jeff Mullins who is positive ROI with a 23% win rate in his career on that angle. Last race can be thrown out (distance too long, class to high) where this one fits todays condition just right. Last won race though did not come back as a strong group, with only 1 of 8 hitting the board in next, and none winning. Horizontally, I will be using all three.
Race 3: 6F DIRT AOC $40k 3YO Pace: 2 likely lone speed
Projection: 2-1-4-5 Horizontal: A: 2 B: 1,4,5 C: 3,6 X:
Trainer Craig Lewis was off to a 1-20 start to the 2020 year before Margot Boy came roaring home on Saturday for these connections (owner included).#2 Brickyard Ride enters in here vs. open company as this Cal Bred appears to be the clear speed today. Very strong works coming in but notes of eagerness or inability to relax during them. TFUS Early Speed figure is 25 points the best in here and next best is directly to his inside, good spot to be and value if we can get anything close to the ML. Can these connections visit the winners circle 2 consecutive days? #1 Hydrogen is a former Baffert horse who put up impressive “6” figures in first two starts then regressed. Raced against very strong groups (many now stakes horses). Wish we knew why Baffert sold, but horse has not been the same in 2 starts since leaving Bob. If Hydrogen does go early with Brickyard, creating a pace meltdown, could protect with #4 Promise Nothing who mowed down competition from off the pace 3 back off a slow pace.
Race 4: 8F TURF MSW $50k 3YO+ PACE: #8 potential lone speed.
Projection: 3-8-6-4 Horizontal: A: 3,8 B: 6 C: 2,4,7 X: 1,5,9,10
Might be starting to sound like a broken record, but yet another race with a potential lone speed scenario. #8 Zest returns after nearly a year off for Sherriff who is 0-14 lifetime in brining runners back after 300+ days off (0-24 on 180 days+). AM Works have been encouraging with notes of how the filly has added size and has been moving like a good thing (B/B+ works). This one owned by the Wygod’s last raced here at SA over 1M on turf against redcoded fractions near the front end for the first 3 calls and finished a strong 3rd (1 ¼ L back) in a field of 12. That race produced 2 next out winners, and 9 of the 12 have gone on to graduate since. #3 Nurse Goodboy exits a nice race in March where Woke up to Aces won in impressive fashion, going eyeball to eyeball for 4F at a hot pace before pulling away. This race also produced next out winner Affianced from last week’s write up. In that race horse lost some momentum from being steadied but still finished VERY strong, with some assistance from the early pace. Kruljac with some good stats in stretching out winning at 32% at a $5.83 ROI and works note that his one should like the extra distance. Grand Dam was Runway Model who was a GSW as a router on dirt. #4 Wind and Hope will make debut today for Don Alberto stable and Simon Callahan. This $535k purchase was in the Chad Brown barn last year but has been transferred to Callahan here on the West Coast. Attracts Prat first out and is well bred with Grand Dam a SW and finished career with a 18: 6-4-2 record with beyers over 100. Dam a SW in Tampa as well, but sibs have gone only 1-12 so far. Works indicate this one may need some racing. A bunch of 3 YO’s in her versus older and I much prefer the older ones in here, especially in a full field routing on turf.
Race 5: 5.5F DIRT CLM $25K N2L 3YO+ PACE: Hot and contentious
Projection: 2-7-3-9 Horizontal: A: 2,7 B: 3 C: 4,6,9 X: 1,5,8
Payoff leg and the start of the Late Pick5. In these 9 race cards, Race 5 is crucial to get right for Horizontal players. Baffert, not one to be seen in these medium/lower claiming races enters #7 Sky Jumper (a $200k purchase last year) for $25k off a race where he got a 91 beyer and lost by less than half a length at the Allowance 50k level. Interesting placement. Looking at Formulator, Baffert has won his last 5 races when entering in these medium claiming levels and hits at 28%. Has 2 bullets since last race and a “B” graded work by @clockerandy on the most recent 5F spin. There are two horses with better Thorograph tops than Sky Jumper and pace looks to be fast and contentious, so there could be value to be had here. #2 Baby Gronk owns the highest TFUS Late Speed figs of this bunch and has the best recent Thorograph top of “6” from his race 2 back. Interesting that this one has not got a hot pace to run at in 3 tears, today could be that day. Last out broke through the gate and steadied, losing all chance. Like this one at a price. #3 Camby has the best Thorograph career top in this group of ‘5” but both came a DMR and has not been able to return to this with many tries at SA. Has always been a nice worker, and no difference here with a nice fluid B work coming into the race. All the pace is a concern for me, as this one has not been able to prove he can pass horses in the lane. If looking to protect in this all important leg, two others to consider would be the GG shipper #4 He’s a Habanero and #9 Cryin Chuck. I wish the #4 would have had some works over this surface, but does have evidence of late kick and a trainer who can win off the layoff and is a dirt/sprint specialist outside of Golden Gate. #9 Cryin Chuck is for the always dangerous connection of Hronis/Sadler/Espinoza and enters in off maiden win despite being wide throughout.
Race 6: 8F TURF AOC $40K N1X 3YO+ PACE: Moderate to Fast
Projection: 3-5-1-8 Horizontal: A: 3,5 B: 1,8 C: 2,4 X: 6,7
Fun wide open race here where for me it came down to what horses this distance fit best. Starting with the horses I don’t see the 1M fitting ideally, this distance feels short for #2 Red King who connections have tried numerous attempts at long distances of 10F or more and hit the board often with a big late run, but will need either a hot contentious pace today or a well measured trip by Cedillo. #4 Avalanche is another where the shorter distance could pose a challenge as this one has best late kick of this bunch and is pace dependent. The #6 Posterize comes back to turf after running mainly dirt sprints, and could be an early pace factor in here. Has tried turf twice previously with no success and could not keep up when trying a mile last out. Pass. Top pick is #3 Turn the Switch who returns to the mile where he won back in December, closing from just off the pace against red coded fractions. Connections tried to stretch out to 10F last out where he led at the top of the stretch but was passed in the lane to finish a tiring 4th against a good group. Is a half to GSW Candy Boy and dam is a SW router as well. 2nd start as a 4 YO, expecting improvement and a good effort. #5 Of Good Report for Vlad Cerin has won 2 of the last 3, all at the mile distance and attracts Irad Ortiz today. 3rd start of 4YO and has not got back to 3YO top fig, today could be the day for that jump back up.
Race 7: 6.5 F DIRT MDCLM $40K 3YO+ PACE: Contentious, no clear pace setter
Projection: 4-7-8-5 Horizontal: A: 4,7 B: 5,8 C: 1,3,6 X: 2,9
Race 8: 8F TURF AOC $40K N1X 3YO+ PACE: Fast and Contentious
Projection: 5-6-2-1 Horizontal: A: 5,6 B: 1,2,8 C: 3,7 X: 4,9
Race 9: 6F DIRT MSW $50K 3YO+ CA BREDS PACE: Unclear
Projection: 7-9-5-8 Horizontal: A: 7 B: 5,9 C: 2,6,8,11 X: 1,3,4,10
#7 Carerulean took some money on debut at this same condition , only difference is today there is only 1 older in this large group. Ran behind the pace and winning favorite in that race getting some good experience and taking some dirt in the face. Now comes into today with a good foundation of works out of last race and a solid work grades with how he did it. May 6th work ran final quarter in 23.2! Hard to gauge the pace in this one, but if can settle and get a little pace in front, should be coming on late. In looking for the pace, and horses that could get clear trips on the front end, I landed on #9 Brace for Impact, the only older in this group and cuts back following a turf route try and keeps Maldanado on board, always a good match for early speed types. Headley with big positive ROI’s on cut backs and surface changes. #5 Bluegrass Patriot debuts for Glatt, whom we have talked about being very dangerous with dirt sprinters. This one has shown some evidence of early speed in the morning with fast works.