New approach to today’s article to shake things up. Showing the use of some of the common tools out there and a deeper look at the why behind some stronger opinions today in select races. Horizontal Grid at the bottom of the article for a quick summary. This card is much better than Saturday oddly enough, and also strange to see them ending on a Stakes race, but nothing wrong with changing things up a bit.
Race 1: 8F TURF AOC $62.5k N2X 3YO+ Fillies and Mares
May be a short field but this race is competitive with some quality older (4+, no 3 yo’s entered) mares in here. Looking at the pace, it certainly appears Miss Hit Logs should be the speed of the speed, always a nice advantage. Has been in races with some serious front end speed the last three with Stealthediamonds x2, and Kentan Road. Working against a recent turf bias against front end speed, so not singling here, but there is still lots to like.
Now the big question is, can she get a mile? Starting with Callahan, he has not been good with this move as the snap below shows this move over the past year, not good, but 5 of these were in stakes competition and still 44% ITM rate.
From a breeding standpoint, Verrazano’s have not been good, and turf routes hitting at 10%. On the dam side, dam was a sprinter and grand dam a router, but the biggest sign of confidence is in the half sib star Swiss Skydiver, winner of this years Santa Anita Oaks.
Comes back quick, with a work in-between, little doubt this one is fit and ready. Like the note in the workout report as well. Below is from National Turf clocker report by @clockerandy. Check him out, best works report out there IMO.
Not the biggest Brice Blanc fan, but if hes on a horse with my money on it, I would want it to be a turf route while being on the lead.
Second off the layoff with figures that fit already (tied with Zee Drop for top Thorograph figure), with high likelihood for improvement today. Like at a price.
I do like Amuse and Zee Drop here as well. Feel these three should get me through leg 1.
Race 2: 4.5F DIRT MSW $50k 2YO Fillies
Favorite looks tough and ready. Workout report below gives her a tough to earn B+ grade and good to see the jock working her in the AM will be aboard in the afternoon. Jockey also a known gate rider and strong on the front end, feels like a good match here.
Luis has been hot, winning another on Saturday with a seond time starter, but below you see the first time starters since meet began. Took alittle extra time with this one but appears cranked and ready.
Race 3: 5.5F TURF CLM $50k 3YO
Lots of question marks in here, and really the race I am most likely to spread. Promise Nothing feels like a bad favorite, despite getting Prat on board. Can Hydrogen find some form now on Turf? Can Bad Beat wire the field and will he like the return to grass (Danza’s not grass horses)? Call me Daddy, is this the ideal surface and distance?
Race 4: 8.5F DIRT MSW $50k 3YO+ F&M
Look at the May11th work below for Crystal Ball, which would have been the work prior to debut a week later. Baffert rarely debuts C+ works $750k types so to me, feels like this one needed some race experience, and that exactly what she got in a replay worth watching. Like that she steadily made up ground, took some dirt, and despite being asked early on the turn, still fought with oncomers late to hold 3rd. Now look at the recent works and notes. This one is improving, and now with the race under her belt, could be tough.
Crystal ball has three siblings, all winners thus far. Best figs have come at sprinting distance but the debut at 1M is telling that this one will be a router. Look at the Baffert/Cedillo numbers on a small sample of 11 starts, no doubt Cedillo wants these mounts and should be at the top of his game on this one.
Race 5: 5.5F TURF MSW $50k 3YO+
Tricky race to end the early pick 5 and start the late. This type of “connector” race that’s involved in both is key to get right for those playing both bets. Note, this is a 3 and older race but has drawn a full field of 3yo’s.
Let’s start with a couple trip notes off debut races. First, below is the # Solo Animo who had a tough first trip, yet one that certainly got the horse some nice experience, and finished very nice against a race flow that favored the early speed. D’Amato has not been strong with first time starters, so not sure how well meant this one was, but ran well regardless. Now we are likely to see improvement for the 2nd time starter.
Workout notes on this one give me even more confidence as he is working with stakes horse Fashion Business, and outworked her in the 6/8 drill.
Out of the same race we have Tripoli. In watching the replay again, look at Victor legs and position in the saddle along with the tight reign, clearly this one had the brakes on early. Big horse, was curious to see if we would see him in a route next out, but shows up again here in the sprint. The winner in the debut race was tied for the fastest time in maiden races at 5.5F on turf thus far since the meet started back up. Will get a price, and got to think more is here for this $450k purchase for Hronis.
Quick notes on other contenders in this race:
- Michael McCarthy with the #10 Inch, has a big $5.37 ROI in 2nd time out maidens in 37 starts.
- The favorite, Absolute Unit has the top fig at this surface/distance. Returns to it after trying routing. Work note states he moves like a “turfy sprinter”. Is a half to 2x SW Silent Bird. Both sire and dam side seem to get better with time, really peaking in 4YO year. One to watch.
- #6 Lemonade Stand debuted on dirt in a route and now adds blinkers. Lots of changes. Is half to 3x SW Kitten’s Roar
- #4 Oculus is a well bred debuter for Baltas, a half to the versatile 4x SW Warren’s Veneda. Known for strong debuts at 1M, Baltas has been strong with turf sprint debuts since meet started back up, going 5: 2-1-1.
- #5 Veteren is owned by Fox Hill Farms and ridden by Mike Smith, trained by Mandella. This trio combination has 9 wins in 21 starts (7 of those are Omaha Beach and Jolie Olympica). First race since August debut when he was up against future stakes runners (below is chart). If fit and shows same early speed, could be interesting.
Race 6: 6.5F DIRT AOC $62.5K N1X 3YO+ PACE: FAST and Contentious
Good contentious field. Looking at the pace here, seeing a couple possibilities. If McKale gets loose and uncontested, its over. Projected ¼ below by Thorograph, that has McKale on a 3+L lead.
Here shows, a loose lead will likely equate to a win, where if you believe he gets collared, most likely will fold up.
More likely, in my opinion, is this one gets contentious early, and could spell trouble to those that tustle for the lead. Lots of speed in here and horses that prefer being on the lead. Could set up well for #1 Blame it on the law who has done well in red-coded pace scenarios.
Also, note the success of Oil Can Knight on fast dirt. No respect on this 8-1 line. Has gone 6 for last 6 when sprinting on fast dirt, and beat a good bunch off the short layoff. Potential bounce situation, as workouts are not stellar, but this one fights and likes to win.
The we have the near 1400 lb Justinian, this guy is hippo like but can move. The Gronk of the track. Like the work notes and will be interesting to see if the cutback helps (Baffert 27% on the move. National Turf works report on him below, note how he outworked Axman, the horse that nosed out Law Abiding Citizen in the last race.
Race 7: 9 F TURF CLM $25k N2L F&M 3YO+
None of these have seen this distance, and none of the breeding is screaming for it either.
Race 8: 6.F DIRT MDCLM $20k 3YO+
Bad group of Maiden Claimers.
Race 9: 10F TURF $75k Possibly Perfect Stakes 3YO+ F&M
First observation, none of these horses have won at 10F, and 5 of them will be trying it for the first time. Also, the pace scenario is interesting as well. In 100 combined races in this group, only once was oone of these on the lead at second call, Streak of Luck, where he ended up in a duel on the inside after slow early fractions and then fading. Could have it his own way today and love a few things about this horse.
2nd off a short layoff, turning back to preferred surface and has had good excuses in last 4. Top fig of a “4” is best of this group today, and no reason to doubt we could see a return to form today.
Now we look at the works. Best of this group, a mention of the liking for turf, and mentions of going forward. Working with a target, which does not equate to being on the lead today, but if DVD is given the lead, and an easy one, hoping he takes it.
Could be reading too much into a short note, but wouldn’t be Surprised to see Mike put pretty point on the lead either with this very fast 4F work. The take back approach has not worked for this one, so why not.
| Race | A | B | C | X |
| 1 | 3,5 | 4 | 1,2,6 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 4,5 | 1,6,7 |
| 3 | 1,2 | 3,5 | 4,6 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5,6 | 1,2 | 3 |
| 5 | 3,9 | 4,8,10 | 5,6,7 | 1,2,11 |
| 6 | 1,3 | 4,5 | 6 | 2,7 |
| 7 | 1,5 | 6 | 3 | 2,4 |
| 8 | 7,8,9 | 2,4 | 3,11 | 1,5,6,10 |
| 9 | 3,4 | 6 | 1,5 | 2 |
A= Must Use B= Main Back Ups C: Consider using on deep tickets X= Against on all tickets