COLD JOCKEY’S : Bejarano 0-25, Prat 3-30
COLD TRAINERS: Mullins 0-14
HOT TRAINERS: Baffert 36%/ Miller 41%
Winning Post Positions
Track Bias: Main track playing fair with a slight bias towards front end speed. Turf Sprints has a bias against front runners with only 1 gate to wire winner this meet.
Early Pick 5 Plays:
136 / 1,2 / 4 / ALL / 368
1236/1246/34/ 345/ 368
136/ 1,2/ 23456/4 / 123468
Race 1: 8F TURF OC62k N2X 4YO+ F&M PACE: Slow/ moderate but contentious
Projection: 6-3-1 Horizontals: A: 6 B: 1,3 C: 2 X: 4,5
May only be a 6 horse field, but this is a good competitive race to kick off this card. #6 Love and Peace is an interesting price here. She made her stateside debut on Santa Anita opening day in 2018 in a stakes race, pretty strong confidence after a nice start to her career in France. Then, came back a month later, after making 8 starts and changing countries in 18’ and finishes a good looking second. Is then given a break and returns in April as a strong favorite in an OC80k CABred race where the first ¾ was coded “blue” (for very slow) in Timeform speed fractions, not a good match for her late kick. Since, tried a tough group in an open OC62k event and then was given a break until last week where she returned in what looked like a clear prep race. Prat had her under a tight hold and never really asked much. Now we get a 6-1ML, solid value in a group where her speed fits and should show big improvement off last. Not concerned about the short layoff, last race was basically a workout with more education. #3 Wicked Old Fashion has consistently the best Thorograph numbers in here and take note of her record at 1M, 7: 5-1-0. The more speed up front the better for this one, which is a bit of a question in this one. #1 Sedamar had a great time down in Del Mar this year 4:2-1-1 and cuts back a tad in this one and has shown the ability to sit right off the lead and pounce at the top of the stretch. Thought it was interesting that Beyers are showing steady improvement in the last 3 races, but Throrograph has their figures flat at 8 for all three, a point off of Wicked Old Fashion. A contender and must include on Horizontals, but see more value in the other two.
Race 2: 8F DIRT MDCLM $30k 3YO Fillies PACE: Slow / Contentious
Projection: 2-1-6-4 Horizontals: A: 2 B:1 C: 4,6 X: 3,5
This is not a good group but do see some angles worth playing for value in this one. Top pick is #2 Subtle Ride. We saw Craig Lewis in the winners circle on Friday with a horse off slow works making their debut at 1M. Subtle Ride made his debut in Dec where he hit the gate and turned left leaving him 10+ off the lead early. Replay showed a good finish with interest and a strong gallop up, and today stretches out ot 1M. Was worked lightly once since, and shows up today against softer and in a shorter field for a trainer who is 42% recently with Maidens going out for their 2nd start. Take note of the strong ROI’s as well with Lewis lately in Sprint to Route ($3.00), Routes ($6.89) and with Velez ($4.63). #1 and ML Fav, Sabitinos Pride has drawn the rail for the 2nd consecutive race. He has the best figs in the race, but its not saying much. Did like the sub 13 second final 18th in last race over a wet track. This will be the first time the horse tries fast dirt and has good pedigree with a dam who won 2 routes with a “6” Thorograph and Liam’s Map as a sire who is 22% with routers.
Race 3: 5.5F TURF AOC $20k N1X (CA BREDS) 4YO+ Pace: Moderate/ Lone Speed
Projection: 4-3-6-2 Horizontal: A=4 B=3,6 C= 2,5,8 X= 1,7
Top pick is another price in this one, as #4 Violette Szabo (5/1 ML) returns to turf and gets Prat (upgrade) who is 28% when paired with D’Amato in 19’/20’. Square Peggy, the clear speed in the race, has beaten Violette twice in a row, but two back it was done with an extremely slow first ¼ of 24.4 in a 5.5F Turf Sprint, and in the last on an uncontested lead. As you see at the top of this report, its been awfully tough to win on the lead, only hurting Square Peggy and giving more value to #4. Top pick comes in with a very strong work, where she was noted to be working with Stakes types Just Grazed Me and Storm the Hill and was given a B+ per @clockerandy. #3 Smiling Annie has the best Thorograph fig on turf (8) by 2 full points. Could sit an ideal stalking trip with likely good pace in front and strongest finishing jockey(Rosario) on board. #6 Stormin Ranger is from a family of winners. Dam was a 4x winner, and four of five sibs are multiple race winners including The Rock Rolls who won 15 races and topped at a “4” Throrograph fig. Makes turf debut (positive ROI angle for Koriner) with Brice aboard (who has also road her in the mornings).
Race 4: 1M DIRT CLM16k N3X 4YO+ PACE: Moderate/ Contentious
Projection: 4-5-3 Horizontal: A=4 B= 3,5 C=1,2 X=
Race 5: 5.5F TURF CLM $30K 4YO+ PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 6-8-3 Horizontal: A-6,8 B:3 C:1,2,4 X 5,7,9
Connecting race in the early and late P5’s. Here, I see #6 Blackout with the best figures combined with a trainer who is hot (especially on turf sprints) and having this one for one of his top owners (Barber), as my top pick. Run’s for the first time with blinkers, so would expect to see in the mix early. Big drop from the OC ranks for a $32k tag here today, where Miller is 2 for 2 in 2020 on this move and 22% lifetime. #8 Via Egnatia also takes a drop from OC ranks and gets a nice jockey upgrade with Rispoli. 2 and 3 back this horse faced now stakes types where Maldanado ripped the horse through red coded early fractions before fading. The cutback should do this horse well, and Rispoli can have him sitting just off the lead on the turn, should be plenty in the tank to finish strong. Horse has consistently been on the inside, but with the likely race flow today see him outside of early speed from the inside. Lots of changes, but some that I see as making perfect sense for this one. #3 Tigerbeach has the best late kick of this bunch, however has been up against numerous “blue coded” fractions in his past few races. Today is likely to get a fast pace to run at, and if Tiago keeps him close enough early could have clean run at them in the final furlong. Second best Thorofig on turf sprints amongst this bunch, would include horizontally.
Race 6: 8.5F DIRT CLM $40K 4YO+ PACE: FAST/ Lone Lead (#1)
Projection: 2-1-3 Horizontal: A- 1,2 B: 3 C: 4,5 X
Bad race, short field. Will be passing on this one and playing safely in horizontals.
Race 7: 8F TURF MDCLM $75K 3YO+ Fillies PACE: Moderate / Contentious
Projection: 7-2-5 Horizontal: A: 2,7 B: 5 C: 1,3,4,9 X: 6,8
We have a group of 3 coming out of the same race in DMR in November, and a group of 3 coming out of a strong MSW race in December at LRC. Fire up the replays!
Nov23-DMR MD80k- The #1,2, and 8 from todays program exot this race where the pace was hot and coded “red” for the first three calls, the #2 in here today had the worst of the trips and never appeared to have room at the top of the stretch to get moving in time to make up necessary ground, but also was not being asked much and appeared to have more. The 1, and 8 had clear running room and with this pace, would have liked to see better kick late with this coming back to a mile. Must use the #2, nothing from this race tells me to use the 1 or 8.
Dec15-LRC MSW41k- This is starting to look like a key race with Paige Ann entering stakes ranks and Storied Blue coming back to win a big race last weekend impressively over the much hyped Classy Ruler. Opposite the race above, this one was run at “blue” coded fractions, and to see the #5 in todays program fold up so easily in those fractions was not encouraging. Now, maybe it will be different on turf, but it is certainly a mark against. The #7 today, Go Big Blue, had some excuse for lack of late kick as she was wide throughout. Gets softer today and pace should be quicker.
Top pick is #7 Go Big Blue Nation, as not only the replay showed valid excuse in a good race, this one has been up against some very tough fillies the past year including Amalfi Sunrise, Comical, and Éclair, all stakes types with the former as one of the top in the division. We get a big jockey upgrade and Bonde in his wheelhouse where he has a +ROI in maiden claiming races. #2 Dipping In is ready to show big improvement today, and debut beyer is already easily the top of this bunch. Doing well in the mornings and showing there could be more early speed present.
Race 8: 6.5F DIRT STK 75K 4YO+ F&M PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 5-4-2 Horizontal: A:5 B: 2,4 C:1 X ;3
#5 Lady Ninja returns following her Breeders Cup loss, but finds a nice spot for her comeback in this one. Baltas didn’t give her too much time off, with 3 weeks following the Breeders Cup she got back to a steady work tab and should be very fit coming into this one. Is at her best when sitting just off a hot pace, but could also see her on the lead in this one. #4 Mother Mother comes back after just a 2 week break following her comeback race in the G1 La Brea where she battled Bellafina through a very hot pace. Was not an easy race, would think something got taken out of her from that, but was also going into the race with A- works. #2 Flor de la Mar is the wild card in here, as I feel one turn is where she will best fit and she gets that today. Her 6.5F debut last January was still her best race yet so I am curious to see how she adjusts tactics off the layoff. She would be the value in here at 4-1.
Race 9: 8F TURF MDSW $55K 3YO+ (CA BRED) PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 3-6-4-10 Horizontal: 3,6 B: 4,10 (14 AE) C: 5,8,9 X:1,2,7,11